Not all anaysis of Nickel is bullish:
http://www.abareconomics.com/interactive/08ac_june/htm/nickel.htm
Date: 20/8/2008
Author: Peter Wells
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 25
Some directors of Australian-listed companies were active in the sharemarket inmid-August 2008. Terry Streeter, the non-executive chairman of Western Areas,has acquired 875,000 shares in the mining company at a cost of $A6.59m.Likewise, ThinkSmart CEO Ned Montarello has paid $A1.64m for a parcel of sharesin the office equipment financing group. On the selling side, Just Groupchairman Ian Pollard has gained over $A240,000 after selling 109,452 of theretailer's shares to suitor Premier Investments
Western Areas on track for two new mines
12/09/2008 7:48:31 PM
Nickel miner Western Areas NL says it is on track to start up two new mines near its Flying Fox mine in Western Australia next year.
Managing director Julian Hanna told the company's annual general meeting in Perth that these developments, the Spotted Quoll and Diggers South mines, between Kalgoorlie and Esperance, would be underpinned by a recovered nickel price.
Mr Hanna said the nickel price, which was now about $US8.50 per pound (lb), would return to its usual level of between $US10 and $US15/lb soon due to its role in the production of stainless steel, which remained in high demand.
"We don't believe that it will remain below $US10 per pound for too long," Mr Hanna said.
"At $US8 per pound it is starting to knock out some of the producers around the globe ... but about $US15 per pound, it starts to be substituted in stainless steel with chromium, manganese and that sort of thing."
Western Areas aims to be the second largest producer of nickel in Australia, behind BHP Billiton Ltd, by 2011, producing 35,000 tonnes of nickel per annum from five mines.
The company reported a loss for 2007/08 of $54.9 million.
....you can agree with me.
The report is obviously a little old, panoramic sold off its Kambalda operations and are in the process of starting up the Savannah operation, it has hit a couple of hurdles.Nickel stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide
After Elon Musk called for more nickel to be mined back in September...
Miners answer Musk call for more nickel
"Please mine more nickel," these four words from Tesla CEO Elon Musk reverberated across the global mining sector and raised awareness of how fundamental nickel is to the lithium-ion batteries powering hundreds of millions of electric vehicles to come off Tesla and traditional automaker assembly...www.miningnewsnorth.com
The price has been doing well but with all the miners old and new out there with their spades and buckets digging away there may be a slight oversupply one may wonder?
I had a look at the forecast for nickel and it is suggesting there will be a falling away of the price.
"Nickel is expected to trade at 19696.98 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 18341.49 in 12 months time."
If it stays around $US10/lb most Australian miners are very profitable, once it gets below $5/lb it is time to switch the lights off for most.Hopefully it stays over $7.50/lb what CTM used for their Scoping Study. Currently aiming to produce 341K tns over 13 years = $$$. And growing.
Nothing I like better is to short squeeze on the parasitic shorters.Around the time Peabody was served with a $534 million margin call on its hedging coal futures short, which it funded with a new $150MM unsecured (10%) revolver from Goldman Sachs, one of China's largest banks was also served with a margin call for hundreds of millions of dollars on a nickel short gone terribly bad after the price of Nickel did... well this:
However, unlike Peabody, a unit of China Construction Bank Corp - one of China's "Big Four" banks - was given additional time by the London Metal Exchange to pay hundreds of millions of dollars of margin calls it missed Monday amid an unprecedented spike in nickel prices. The reprieve from the LME - which just last week sent out thousands of erroneous margin calls on metals contracts - means that the unit, called CCBI Global Markets, is not formally in default, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
The details of the non-payments aren't quite clear: Bloomberg notes that the deferred default "isn’t necessarily an indicator of any problems at the parent company" although Bloomberg may be merely trying not to antagonize a major client. Instead, the media conglomerate suggests that the non-payment is more likely due to a failure by one of its metals-industry clients to make margin payments to CCBI Global Markets, which is a broker on the LME’s open-outcry trading floor. That in turn, left CCBI Global Markets struggling to arrange payment of the unusually large margin calls after the end of the business day in Asia, as nickel prices exploded throughout Monday.
As reported earlier, Monday’s monster squeeze was driven by market participants with short positions being forced to close out as they couldn’t meet margin calls.
But while a big Chinese bank may have had immunity, others may not be so lucky: Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese entrepreneur Xiang Guangda - known as “Big Shot” - had a large short position on the LME through his company, Tsingshan Holding Group, the world’s largest nickel and stainless steel producer. It's unclear whether that particular trader received a margin call and if he paid it.
And so, as we wait for more massively short squeezed names to emerge, we can't help but wonder if this is precisely the start of the "liquidity crisis" predicted by Zoltan Pozsar; after all, he has called virtually everything else spot on so far...
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