Nick Radge's Weekend Trend Trader

[Menacingsalt]

Quick bump to this thread. Is anyone still trading the WTT and how has the performance been? Planning to do on the US universe, like the extremely simple rules and the logic behind the system makes a lot of sense. I’ve reached out to Nick the last few weeks and he’s been very helpful with questions I had but interested on views others had.

 

[willoneau]

I have traded the WTT for last three years

 

[Menacingsalt]

Thanks Boba. Do you mind if I asked how its performed and is the system something you would stick to over the long run. I think I read somewhere that the system has a 100% probability of profit after 3 years.

 

[Sir Burr]

I’ve reached out to Nick

I'm trading one of his sold Amibroker systems (similar to WTT), tweaked version and is doing OK. A long shot better than his subscription service where I lost money hand over fist not to mention the opportunity cost.

Leason learnt to do it yourself.

By the way, as far as Nicks sold Amibroker systems go. I bought the system with a "future leak". I didn't pick up until many months later, maybe a year. He had already fixed it (had a few iterations) but unless you pick up on problems yourself he does not freely update/send/advise of any corrected code.

If I didn't complain about it I would still be using his wrong coding.

I think WTT would be OK but check it well.

 

[Menacingsalt]

I'm trading one of his sold Amibroker systems (similar to WTT), tweaked version and is doing OK. A long shot better than his subscription service where I lost money hand over fist not to mention the opportunity cost.

Leason learnt to do it yourself.

By the way, as far as Nicks sold Amibroker systems go. I bought the system with a "future leak". I didn't pick up until many months later, maybe a year. He had already fixed it (had a few iterations) but unless you pick up on problems yourself he does not freely update/send/advise of any corrected code.

If I didn't complain about it I would still be using his wrong coding.

I think WTT would be OK but check it well.

Thanks for that Sir, are you referring to the power setups? I imagine it’s a tough system to trade as there could be months of losers. I did ask for some stats (win loss/% ratio) but there are none to disclose here which is a shame for obvious reasons.

Are you talking about the flipper strategy? That is worrying, certainly an update is needed to all people who purchased the code. His mechanical strategies all appear sound but agree that they would need to be backtested to give the comfort to trade.

How has the strategy you bought performed. No worries if you’re reluctant to share.

 

[Sir Burr]

That is worrying, certainly an update is needed to all people who purchased the code.

Yes definitely, although WTT is simple (simple is good!) and I don't think would have the same problem.

there are none to disclose here which is a shame for obvious reasons.

Are you saying Nick has told you not to disclose results here? Be interesting to see if they line up with my ACTUAL results. I think he may have small print about disclosing results. Smoke and mirrors.

 

[Menacingsalt]

Yes definitely, although WTT is simple (simple is good!) and I don't think would have the same problem.


Are you saying Nick has told you not to disclose results here? Be interesting to see if they line up with my ACTUAL results. I think he may have small print about disclosing results. Smoke and mirrors.

Apologies if not clear here. They won’t provide results due to the ambiguity of the setups (I.e not everyone can take all trades on offer hence performance can differ). Also some compliance restrictions though don’t know what they would be.

I know the system was up 40% in 2013 when I enquired but was hoping for 10 years of results. Otherwise it’s very hard to trade it. I’m stating the bleeding obvious there though

 

[willoneau]

my results with WTT have been good considering last 12 months the markets have been flat. Also the tweeking you can do to the code can change the results quite a bit , there is code with it to do monti carlo back testing which is good too. It is a system that is easy to run in background while doing other things , which helps diversify more than one strategy.

 

[peter2]

interested on views others had.

Nick's WTT is a simple and robust trend following system. Like all trend following systems it needs bullish market conditions to show it's best results. It will struggle to produce profits when markets go sideways and will produce large draw downs in bearish markets.

It's important to understand this before starting any trend following system. Overall you'll get slightly above average returns with the occasional large draw down. You must be comfortable with this and hold through these draw downs.

There are a number of tweeks that can be applied to reduce these draw downs but they require more active management and in fact reduce the total profits.

 

[Sir Burr]

I know the system was up 40% in 2013 when I enquired but was hoping for 10 years of results. Otherwise it’s very hard to trade it. I’m stating the bleeding obvious there though

Haha true.

Any subscription system might be difficult to aquire actual data too.

They won’t provide results due to the ambiguity of the setups (I.e not everyone can take all trades on offer hence performance can differ).

Yep it can be tweaked indefinitely.

Peter2 words are spot on and maybe only a monte carlo will show what you your after. Ask Nick to provide it using the standard settings. I'm sure he would be happy to before you outlay.

 

[Menacingsalt]

my results with WTT have been good considering last 12 months the markets have been flat. Also the tweeking you can do to the code can change the results quite a bit , there is code with it to do monti carlo back testing which is good too. It is a system that is easy to run in background while doing other things , which helps diversify more than one strategy.

Thanks for the information, I like the ideas behind the system so it’s good to see some positive results. Also good to know that there is code to backtest. Nick has been transparent in that he doesn’t trade the strategy. I’d rather do something like this than the tradelongterm blackbox.

Thanks again

 

[Menacingsalt]

Nick's WTT is a simple and robust trend following system. Like all trend following systems it needs bullish market conditions to show it's best results. It will struggle to produce profits when markets go sideways and will produce large draw downs in bearish markets.

It's important to understand this before starting any trend following system. Overall you'll get slightly above average returns with the occasional large draw down. You must be comfortable with this and hold through these draw downs.

There are a number of tweeks that can be applied to reduce these draw downs but they require more active management and in fact reduce the total profits.

Thanks for the reply Peter. A systemic approach is definitely appealing, one I have confidence in. I was a member at the Chartist a decade ago and like Nicks methods a lot. There are so many sharks out there and I fell cropper to one on forexfactory called James16. Decided to go the property route instead.

Anyway I read a book recently called Thinking fast and slow (for other reasons) which made me realise why I was no good at trading and why the J16 thread appealed. Clearly a systemic approach would be best if I can follow the rules.

I like the idea of an index filter to protect against downturns. I’d also have to look at the exit strategy, that appears to me to be the biggest puzzle.

Nick is offering mentoring now to design strategies.its expensive but might be worth considering for someone like me.

Thanks again

 

[Menacingsalt]

Haha true.

Any subscription system might be difficult to aquire actual data too.


Yep it can be tweaked indefinitely.

Peter2 words are spot on and maybe only a monte carlo will show what you your after. Ask Nick to provide it using the standard settings. I'm sure he would be happy to before you outlay.

Yes it’s unfortunate, I reckon they must have a record of the number of trades, win loss ratio/%, drawdown. Guess if you miss the one or two big trends then the results are mute.

Never mind thanks for the advice, I’ll go down the systemic route.

 

[peter2]

I remember James16, that was a long time ago and was also surprised to learn that he turned roque. His beginners thread was a FF classic. Even I looked at his DBHC and DTLC on 4H charts.

Can you follow the rules? That's the big question for everyone who wants to trade. Following the rules every now and then doesn't work. It has to be >95% (nobody's perfect).

Nick was a good teacher (I haven't seen anything of him since his forum went to subscription). I do know he tries to make new traders aware of the probable draw downs associated with every system.

 

[Menacingsalt]

I remember James16, that was a long time ago and was also surprised to learn that he turned roque. His beginners thread was a FF classic. Even I looked at his DBHC and DTLC on 4H charts.

Can you follow the rules? That's the big question for everyone who wants to trade. Following the rules every now and then doesn't work. It has to be >95% (nobody's perfect).

Nick was a good teacher (I haven't seen anything of him since his forum went to subscription). I do know he tries to make new traders aware of the probable draw downs associated with every system.

The logic was sound, Support\Resistance at round numbers then look for PA - pinbar\BUOB etc, be picky etc. Problem was I don't think he was trading, he would mine these charts and use them for his tutorials. There was a reliance on a high win rate. Logic is fairly sound and rules can be developed around it incorporating risk\reward otherwise there might only be one or two setups a month. Personal site was held together by another guy who left a few years back then it caved in. The site no longer exists and noone was told it was to be pulled. I think James simply created the thread, curve fitted the charts, used reverse psychology to create a personal forum (its a labour of love etc) then coin it in via subscriptions. The thread was the perfect advertising material.

Nick is certainly different, he expouses trading the proper way as you say instead of 'you'll never have a losing trade' ala James.

 

[2Finn5]

WTT is doing ok. That is on SelfWealth, performance after brokerage.

 

[StockyGuy]

I remember James16, that was a long time ago and was also surprised to learn that he turned roque. His beginners thread was a FF classic. Even I looked at his DBHC and DTLC on 4H charts.

Lol after that I had to look up that thread up on FF. Think I found it - currently 7145 pages long, one of those FF threads that one could go blind/insane trying to read the entirety of lol. Anyway, people are definitely still using it, last reply on it 50 minutes ago. Typically such threads on FF never deal with EVERY eventuality and permutation and thus, as with most things, mileage may vary. I had a quick look at the first page but am not currently in right frame of mind to attempt digestion of such word salad. I tend to think that such long, old popular threads usually have some value, so I might have a crack some time.

 

[MovingAverage]

I've been running the WTT for a few years now. Overall I'm happy with the system given it really only requires 0.5 of an hour per week for me to run and set buy/sell orders. I purchased the turnkey code from Nick. I tweaked a couple of the parameters slightly based on some of my own analysis. I'm only trading XAO stocks. For this year to date (1/1/2019 to 10/12/19) it's returned around 7.8% net P&L, which given the time I put into it is I think ok. Approximately 66% of trades during that period have been winners. Happy to share here any other statistics you might be interested in.

 

[qldfrog]

I've been running the WTT for a few years now. Overall I'm happy with the system given it really only requires 0.5 of an hour per week for me to run and set buy/sell orders. I purchased the turnkey code from Nick. I tweaked a couple of the parameters slightly based on some of my own analysis. I'm only trading XAO stocks. For this year to date (1/1/2019 to 10/12/19) it's returned around 7.8% net P&L, which given the time I put into it is I think ok. Approximately 66% of trades during that period have been winners. Happy to share here any other statistics you might be interested in.

Quick question
Isn't 8pc lower than the xao index and are you not better off using an index etf?
I have my own systemic portfolio started later in the year but a 1/01/19 start should give you stellar results i would have thought?
Does this match Nick system returns?

 

[MovingAverage]

Quick question
Isn't 8pc lower than the xao index and are you not better off using an index etf?
I have my own systemic portfolio started later in the year but a 1/01/19 start should give you stellar results i would have thought?
Does this match Nick system returns?

With the benefit of hindsight it would have been better to load up into an index etf, but if only you could read into the future we'd always be taking the best investment options. There is no way I would fully load up into an index etf anyway. In 2018 the system returned a net P&L of around 27% and in 2017 the system returned a net P&L of around 21%. 2019 has definitely been on the lower-side of the system's performance but I've done extensive monte-carlo simulations and the 7.8% for 2019 year to date is within spec albeit on the lower end of the monte-carlo range.