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Nick Radge's Weekend Trend Trader

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Roller_1 said:
Oh yeh got it.

I only tend to miss trades when the L = my limit price, they're always the best ones too. Will you still account for each symbols volatility with the ATR calculation?
Click to expand...

No, I'm trying to keep it simple at the moment--my sims so far have just evaluated the ATR of XAO and using that to adjust my order limit. I guess I could determine a stock's sector and then set my order limit based on the ATR of the relevant sector's index.

I often think about looking at the SPI futures just prior to placing the limit order and adjusting the limit order based on the SPI, but I suspect I can't get near real-time SPI prices into Amibroker (I'm only using Norgate Data). All to complicated really so think I'll just stick with ATR of XAO as it is showing an improvement in trades.
 

That's interesting, i might have a play too. I'd be worried tho that if the xao has a ATR% of say 1 and your using it to enter a stock with a ATR% of 2-3. Can only test though!
 

I look forward to this as I have been trying to code this myself. This will be a great learning platform as the WT book presents a clear and concise strategy which any learner can get their head around, even me.
 
Dumb question...

I've been working for 1.5 years and I'm thinking of using my (small) life savings of 50-100K as a starting capital to start trading with amibroker by buying Nick Radge's WTT for the ASX stocks.

I was wondering - with a small capital would this be ok, or is it better to invest in some ETFs for a few years to save on brokerage (e.g. with selfwealth)
Do you think international brokers would be a good broker to use?
With WTT, am I mean to buy at a market-on-order on the open on Monday morning?
(Having some difficulties understanding limit orders, market and how this fits into amibroker algo trading)

Does anyone else have other suggestions for someone starting out?
 
It is not a dumb question. No questions=No learning.

I'd suggest you also post this in Beginners Lounge, it may get more answers.

This is the link.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/beginners-introduce-yourselves.6063/page-113#post-1088896

I'd also suggest you read more on stock investing, browse the threads here on ASF, and understand there is no rush to get in to the market. It will be there next week, and next decade. Start off low and slow and don't put all your eggs in one basket. Use the search here in ASF as well. I'm unfamiliar with Amibroker and Nick's latest Weekend Trader.

Your online broker should have definitions for limit, at market etc. If not ask a question in Beginners or in a specific forum or thread that fits e.g ETF's. Exploring past posts in ASF will get you up to speed and build your confidence.

I do not feel you are sufficiently knowledgeable to commit your total savings in the market.

I am not an expert on outfits like Selfwealth and they do not seem popular on ASF. Read the Storm Financial thread on trusting your money to others.

gg
 
Only to second Gg:
Move in slowly, understand what you/ your money does.
And do not trust anyone to really care about your interest before theirs.
Some do..but very few from banks to financial advisors
Good luck.it is a start you need to make
 

I had similar questions when I first started getting into this a few months ago, so I'm no expert by any means but I can give you a few pointers on what I found.

The general consensus is that you need atleast $20-30k in your pot otherwise the trading fees will eat your profits. I believe Nick recommends a 30k minimum.

IB brokers is the cheapest in terms of trading fees but I believe you need a decent size Account to qualify. They also assume you are an experienced trader so offer little or no support.

I use Selfwealth as a broker, they are more expensive than IB at $9.50 a trade but a lot less then the bigger players like commsec.
At far as I know, all brokers will have a facility for at limit orders. You place the order on the weekend, typically at a small discount to the close price, your offer is then submitted at auction pre open. Have a look at SKATES dump it here thread, this topic is well covered. amibroker can be configured to give you the bid price.

If you haven't already read Nick's WTT, then read it, its a great introduction to systematic trading. Nicks books and educational materials are very accessible for the beginner. I did a trial subscription to his Web site and I found the content to be of good quality and well laid out. Moreover, everything he preaches is bang on consistent with the advice of the very experienced members on this forum.
 
(need 3 characters to post)
 
Thanks everyone for your input! I'll definitely introduce myself in the Beginner's thread too.

I've read Nick's unholy grails and his WTT book, and have read a number of books regarding systematic trading (e.g. turtle traders, market wizards, algorithmic trading, etc as well as the more traditional buy and hold books that people that want to live a FIRE life use (re: financial independence, retire early) - eg barefoot investor and peter thornhills motivated money). I did message Nick and he said 50K should be enough as long as I use a deep discount broker, but the small account size means I would have a lot of drag on my account.

In terms of learning Amibroker and systematic trading:
I work full time (and even more overtime including weekends), so I understand I have time constraints when learning Amibroker AFL. I don't think I can be a discretionary trader due to emotions, so systematic trading seems to call out to me more. I have the trial version on my laptop and have been following youtube videos to learn. It seems you have to write it up in a way that ensures you only have the one signal (and not recurring buy signals) and hence there is room for error. Given the steep learning curve, I was thinking it may be easier to cough up the 990 bucks, though I am aware of the opportunity cost it costs me not to mention I don't learn anything on my part. (Cheapest norgate data is 270 bucks a year, and costs 600+ if you want historical delisted data from 1992 required if you were to test your system). The risk is that it takes me too long (e.g. years to learn and by the time I get the hand of it, might as well have started early in buy and hold ETFs or the turnkey code). Time is of the essence for compounding to work, so its hard to know which is the best step (read: cost effective, more bang for buck way) to start.

In terms of brokers:
Selfwealth does have a flat fee of $9.50, and have no account maintenance costs. However, say with at 100K account at 20 positions, each trade would be $5000.

Selfwealth = $9.50 per trade
IB = $6 per trade or maintenance fee of $15 bucks (10 USD) whichever is higher

I read somewhere someone said the WTT trade frequency is around 36 trades a year? I don't have the data to back it up so hard to tell so hard to know which is cheaper in the long run. In massive account sizes though, it seems like selfwealth would be the way to go if its just a flat fee... please let me know if my thinking is wrong.

I've also been following Skate's Dump it here thread - solid gold for beginners like me!
 
@Nameless_ as you have quoted Nick Radge

Two of his gems
(1) "When people read a trading book they see the words but not the true meaning of what is being said. Many times the valuable lessons are not in the written word. Rather what is being alluded to" (2) "Letting profits continue to grow is the most important aspect of trend following, yet the most difficult"

Skate.
 

people often let loses run in the hope that they will turn around, whereas they will cash out of a position in fear of losing open profits. probably the biggest thing to overcome when trend following.
 
Nameless_ said:
The risk is that it takes me too long (e.g. years to learn and by the time I get the hand of it, might as well have started early in buy and hold ETFs or the turnkey code).
Click to expand...
I watched this video of Nick last night and it speaks exactly of the sorts of questions being thrown around here.
 
Thanks all for your input - I did spend an hour watching the youtube video that was posted by TraderJimmy. I understand there's a learning curve and am willing to commit to it - just wanted something to jumpstart my learning, and was thinking of running WTT in the background while I try to learn coding AFL by reverse engineering other people's codes, as I understand this process may take years and I have limited hours in a day.

Knowing that I have limited capital, I don't want to run the risk of losing everything so wanted the best course of action, as I won't have another chance to get another account up and running quickly (will have to save up for another few years).

I hope that's the lesson that Skate and Warr87 is trying to tell me? (I'm not very good with cryptic messages...)
 

Learning Amibroker and coding is a big commitment in time and can be a frustrating process. You are right about re engineering existing code. Again I will refer you back to Skates dump it here thread. He has written a version of the Radge WTT code and that also includes a frame work and step by step instruction on how to approach the structure and development of a system code. This will give you a short cut to 12 months of Amibroker learning in a few posts. It also includes back test's which will give u a clue to your other question about the number of trades the system will run over a 12 month period.

Wrt to the points mentioned above by Skate and warr87. I have looked at a few of Radge's videos and probably the two points he mentions most and repeatedly is about risk management and letting your profits run. He stresses that even if you use a coin toss to pick your stocks you will make money if you get those two things right. But you would need to give the laws of probability time and space to do their job. He states that its not unheard of to have the coin flip against you 12 times in a row.

A run of 12 losses would really test your resolve so he offers risk management approaches to save your account. Eg. Tighten your stops to halve your risk per share if you have 3 losses in a row. This could also be a good way to help your trading psyche.

In your portfolio you will typically have a few big movers which will make most of your money. If you kill these golden geese by taking a profit too early you will not have the leverage over the losers and low performing trades. You can even have 70% of your trades losing money (not ideal) and still make a healthy profit from the big movers. This is a tough one to internalise for most.
 
Thanks Rsthree - will definitely continue to read Skate's thread (I'm halfway through since the beginning of the thread!)

It's definitely hard to swallow 12 losses, especially if this means it is a span over weeks due to the weekly system instead of daily... it seems like once you have a system (and you have to believe in the system), then you have to step up to the plate everyday and put the trades in.
 

This is important and what skate and I were getting at. I liked Radge's video where he went through the mathematical probablility of losing streaks based on winning percentage. He should make people read/watch/acknowledge this before selling them code lol. It's important to remember. And the point there from Rsthree is also important. Just because the probability of heads/tails is 50%, doesn't mean you'll go one for one when flipping. You'll have 'streaks' of heads or tails as well.

Remember that trend trading typically has a win% of 30-35%. That is with hundred's of trades in backtesting to validate as well. That is not a lot of winning and a lot of selling losers. You have to be prepared for it.


I started trading my system first week in Feb. By the time it got fully invested the market dropped due to COVID. I held on because my system said so. My stops hadn't been hit. I lost 23% of my equity (small amount of capital too) straight up! And my index filter now on so no more trades. You are going to lose. But follow through. I haven't broken even yet but I am close. Is it easy? No. I even muse about my worry in my thread.

@Nameless_ there is no harm in buying Radge's code and running it in the background while you learn. Even though I coded a working system I decided to buy his as well. I'm trading his large cap code on Tuesday (beginning of the month). Skate has provided a lot of code to look at as well. Trav posts' a lot of gems too in his AB backtesting thread. I am a fan of the reading of some books—get some ideas and then try and code them. When you are stuck, google it.
 
Interesting
Haven’t read all of the thread
But on streaks of losses.
If your trading an algorithm it will spit out a signal based upon its conditions.
You’ll note the while each buy will be similar they won’t be Identical

Your results should be similar to the testing.

What you should also note is that there will be a reason for long strings of losses.
They WONT be random.

When you trade with a tried and proven discretionary method you won’t get this.
Unlike your systematic method you have discretion.
You understand how to increase your edge with the agility of a gazelle
And not an Elephant.

If you understand your expectations will alter.
If market conditions float all boats you’ll be able to use just about anything
80% of the rest of the time ———
Understand how these methods work (I’m not talking about the nuts and bolts— eg Bollinger Bands and M/As ) but when and why you’ll trade better in all styles.

Then and only then will you truely understand not only why things are happening in your trading but how to improve your trading.

You'll suffer less from fear and greed and more become more entrepreneurial.
It’s a business.
 
Hi
example - 20k, 20 positions 12 losses in a row ( largest drawdown you think you will get ) and 20% ISL = $4000 plus commissions. Now ask yourself if you can really tolerate your account going down that much, if yes then there will be no fear putting the 13th trade on.
 
Greetings! This is the thread that brought me here. I'm a new member and enjoyed reading this thread before joining.

FWIW, I just posted my version of the AmiBroker AFL code for the WTT strategy in the Dump it Here thread. I tried to code it "pure" and true to my interpretation of Nick's book Weekend Trend Trader. There are no bells and whistles, but it does what Nick said it should do.

You are welcome to look it over or take it for a test drive. Much credit to Skate for getting me started with his generous teachings.

Here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1106986
 
Now that I am able to test using AmiBroker I have discovered that a choice I made in the original code was causing severe underperformance compared to what is possible.

I was trying to make sure this 20 week breakout was "new", which I interpreted that it was the first breakout in a possible series of breakouts. I was trying to say that this is not the 2nd or 3rd or 4th breakout in a row.

However, through testing over long and short timeframes I have found that removing this 8 week look-back greatly improves performance. Coded this way, it is a much more aggressive and successful strategy.

I have attached it as WeekendTrendTrader_v5.6.afl.

If you were testing the earlier version, try giving this one a spin. Like night and day.

Code: 
// Condition 1 is a *new* 20 week breakout, so look back 8 weeks.
Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -1) < C;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -2) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -1)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -3) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -2)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -4) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -3)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -5) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -4)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -6) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -5)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -7) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -6)) AND Cond1;
//Cond1 = Ref(DonchianUpper, -8) >= fuzzy(Ref(DonchianUpper, -7)) AND Cond1;
 

Attachments

  • WeekendTrendTrader_v5.6.afl
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