Guys
this stock is very over valued now and i can prove it
hence the drop in price and its due to projected income no longer going to meet its target. - also why there has been no real ann's recently IMO
The reason the SP shot up in april was not because of Andrew Forest, it was because they predicted a $137 mil profit - that took the price from 75c all the way up to $1.80. That was using the current nickel price, however since then the nickel price has fallen over quite hard, have a look at this
http://www.lme.co.uk/nickel_graphs.asp
they made this prediction near the top of this high, because of the huge costs in producing this nickel by leaching they have lost all their profit margin, take the ann in april where they did all the maths for the profit and replace that days nickel price of $45K/t with todays of $31K/t it brings the profit down to $12mil which is 10% of what they predicted.
this is why the price shot up so hard, and has come back down to the price prior to the announcement. This stock will only make money with nickel prices around $45K/t and you want a realistic sp as well not where it is now
So for people who don’t read reports,
-sp went from 22c to 75c when Twiggy came on board.
-sp went from 80c to $1.85 with the projected profit report of $137mil
-Sp is now headed from $1.85 to ??? now nickel price is $31K/t and profit will only be marginal of what was expected
so the reason for the price drop is all the smart money has been slowly pulling their money out. This stock IMO will keep going down hill untill the nickel price /t comes back up to the record highs when they made than announcement.
knowing this now have a read of this news artical
http://www.smh.com.au/news/xchange/poseidon-returns-has-marginal-plan/2007/07/02/1183351125682.html
Some key comments in this artical:
It will need nickel prices well above the long term average to make a go of it.
Forrest hasn’t brought much to the table yet!
The project may have looked good a few weeks back when nickel was trading at record highs
Could rank it as the most expensive producer in WA
The projects chances of getting off the ground are not looking great.
IMO this stock is too risky to own now as you are gambling that nickel prices will go back to record highs, if it does not than the income stream NIA had in place to create revenue will no longer be at the level thay said it would be.