Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NEM - Newmont Mining Corporation

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I must admit this is a big disappointment, but they must see something ahead that makes them close their hedge book and then spend a billion on the mine. As you say kennas, a higher low would be nice to confirm it. Still, a few good trades from the low in any case.
 
kennas said:
Broken $4.75 making a higher high, and now testing it as support. A higher low would add more support to a bottom being found. Next resistance $5.00, and downward trends as shown. I'll have to consider a position on a break through $5.00 around the green circle, and manage it from there. Breaking back down through $4.75 and it's back in the dog house again. Woof.

In the news again about funding for Boddington. Seems there's more positive news comming out than negative atm.

Newmont raising $1b to fund WA project
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Getting more interesting. I'm still waiting for the break through 5, but might have been a bottom. Fat P came out with another buy on this this week at 4.80 ish. Not sure if that helps...

Various S&R lines shown. The green circled candle might have been the truning point, except for the lack of vol which isn't confirmatory.
 

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Kennas, I find it best to watch the chart of the US parent NEM instead of AU stats as AU market is lightly traded as far as volume goes, if that's what confirmation you are looking for?

Interesting juncture all the same, with the XAU tentatively breaking out this week as well. But, I think we might have one more pullback with the rest of the market to go yet?
 

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Uncle Festivus said:
Kennas, I find it best to watch the chart of the US parent NEM instead of AU stats as AU market is lightly traded as far as volume goes, if that's what confirmation you are looking for?

Interesting juncture all the same, with the XAU tentatively breaking out this week as well. But, I think we might have one more pullback with the rest of the market to go yet?
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On that chart I'd call breaking through 42 as a breakout.

Gold pushing through 680, should send this through 5 on Monday IMO, as long as gold holds up. DOW getting smashed atm so not sure what influence that will have. It's mostly Financials going bearish in the US and general commentary still is bullish on Materials.

Certainly a potential breakout from the downward trend, but whether it's a deep bottom and sharp rally, or sideways from here ......:dunno:
 

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kennas said:
Gold pushing through 680, should send this through 5 on Monday IMO, as long as gold holds up. DOW getting smashed atm so not sure what influence that will have. It's mostly Financials going bearish in the US and general commentary still is bullish on Materials.

Certainly a potential breakout from the downward trend, but whether it's a deep bottom and sharp rally, or sideways from here ......:dunno:
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Didn't get there, but a bottom could potentially be in place.

Gold getting flogged at the moment, so I don't expect this to get closer to breaking through today.

Change is in the wind at NEM with the new CEO taking over and weilding the clearing broom significantly already. Sorry, this is a long article but worth a read:

Newmont CEO eyes takeovers
July 26, 2007

NEWMONT Mining, the second-largest gold-mining company, needs to rebuild its credibility with investors and could consider takeovers, according to chief executive Richard O'Brien.

"It's important for us to be attuned to the acquisition market," Mr O'Brien said in his first interview since he was appointed July 1.

"There's no question Newmont has underperformed gold and underperformed a number of our peers."

Newmont, based in Denver, Colorado, cut its sales estimate three times last year on reduced output in Ghana and Uzbekistan, and was overtaken by Barrick Gold in gold sales.

Mr O'Brien said he would also consider selling the company.

"Newmont needs to lift their game in terms of getting their reserves up," said Peter Chilton, of Constellation Capital Management in Sydney. "Barrick has been very aggressive."

Newmont's stock has lagged behind Barrick's, giving it a market value about two-thirds the size of its main rival, which last year bought Placer Dome for $US10 billion ($11.3 billion).

The company's shares have fallen 15 per cent in the past year compared with the 21 per cent gain in Barrick's US stock. Gold rose 11 per cent.

Mr O'Brien, 53, formerly Newmont's chief financial officer, replaced Wayne Murdy, 63. Five days into the new job, he shut down the mining company's merchant banking business and cancelled forward gold sales. The decisions marked a "renewed focus on our core gold business", Mr O'Brien said at the time.

Newmont's main mines are in Nevada, Peru, Australia and Indonesia. The company last year sold 5.87 million equity ounces of gold produced at $US304 an ounce. Barrick, based in Toronto, sold 8.39 million equity ounces with costs of $US282 an ounce.

"We are going to have to get our credibility back," Mr O'Brien said. "We're going to have to complete our projects, getting it done on time. If we can do all that, and replace our reserves through a combination of exploration, acquisitions and development of projects, then we will get the opportunity to see Newmont turn around."

Mr O'Brien didn't name potential acquisition targets. Mr Murdy, his predecessor, helped Newmont become the largest gold producer, buying Australia's Normandy Mining and Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining in 2002.

"We're lacking sustainable production at low cost in improving environments," Mr O'Brien said. "Without stating the names of companies, we're trying to look at a number."

Newmont faces rising cost pressures driven by increases in the prices of energy, skilled labour and raw materials such as steel and explosives, Mr O'Brien said. The gain in Australian dollar had also boosted Newmont's costs, he said.

"We will probably do a little more cost-related hedging, which might eliminate some of the downside," he said, referring to the Australian dollar's continued rise, without being specific. "It's going to take us a while to get our costs in line."

The price of gold, which had advanced for six straight years and touched a 26-year high of $730.40 an ounce last year, was set to rise further on increased demand, Mr O'Brien said.

"With the weaker US dollar, with the potential for less gold production for the next couple of years, increased jewellery demand, we are actually in a position where gold should be able to continue to rally," he said.

"It may be a year or two later than the peak in the base-metal prices but I do believe there is a good run here for gold."

Bloomberg
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Australian miners NCM and LHG must be in their sights, or at least be on the dart board....

So close to going long on this. Patience, kennas, patience, wait for the break.

Anyone else see an inverse H&S there? Just a little one...
 

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Being a 10:1 Share quoted on the ASX, what effect have we seen relative to the firming $Aus. Kennas it may have already broken out if you look at the US chart?

Just a thought


Cheers


BT
 
Kennas,
There is indeed a lovely little inverted H&S.
And there’s an even lovelier one shaping up if it can take out $5.05.
Might need to sit up on the $5 level for a bit to catch its’ breath though. And that might have to wait for another week or so with gold having a rest.
But you gotta think the tide’s turned at last for the biggest unhedged gold producer in the world..

Cheers
 
A view of the weekly US chart, shows leading the pack for a while then underperforming for several months now. Tentative breakout if you are that way inclined, but will probably depend on broader market correction(s?) not contaminating gold stocks in general, 'going forward'.
 

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Uncle Festivus said:
A view of the weekly US chart, shows leading the pack for a while then underperforming for several months now. Tentative breakout if you are that way inclined, but will probably depend on broader market correction(s?) not contaminating gold stocks in general, 'going forward'.
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Damn correction has come to spoil the party here, but if the doomsayers are right and the $US turns into Monopoly money, then perhaps that will be the resurgence of POG and the turnaround for NEM. Will be interesting to see if others feel the same and start taking positions...Maybe this moving will prelude the move in POG. Watch and shoot!

Wonder if $4.75 ish support will be held today? :rolleyes:
 

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Are you a holder yet Kennas?

I'm not a bottom picker, however the Yanks have a poor history of understanding gold stocks. NEM may be seen a suitable tree to shelter under for many now that it has de-hedged. I think once the dust settles there may be an investment refocus on US materials, lower dollar, better for exports. The bond market will become boring very quickly.


Cheers


BT
 
Bush Trader said:
Are you a holder yet Kennas?

I'm not a bottom picker, however the Yanks have a poor history of understanding gold stocks. NEM may be seen a suitable tree to shelter under for many now that it has de-hedged. I think once the dust settles there may be an investment refocus on US materials, lower dollar, better for exports. The bond market will become boring very quickly.

Cheers

BT
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No, not until a break through $5.00. I may consider a small bite if it makes a higher low right now. It would have to bounce well from here tomorrow with a white candle on volume to close near $5.00. I'd then add to position on break up. Not likely to do this unless something positive is happening behind the scenes for POG, more good news is released, and general market jitters subside. If, if, if...
 
Gday Kennas. At work so cant post chart but will do later. But Head and Shoulders reversal pattern going on? Wait and see I spose. Also check out the huge divergence in the MACD. All bets well and truly off if $4.50 broken. Hmmmmm....
 
Lachlan6 said:
Gday Kennas. At work so cant post chart but will do later. But Head and Shoulders reversal pattern going on? Wait and see I spose. Also check out the huge divergence in the MACD. All bets well and truly off if $4.50 broken. Hmmmmm....
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Yes, I see. Looks good. My target from the H&S is only around $5.25 so it's not reall a biggy, but would change the trend perhaps. Cheers.
 
NEM just broken $5.00. :rolleyes:

Needs an EOD close above for me to get excited enough to push a button.
 

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Made one close above and failed, last finished $4.96, so I'm still waiting. POG going short term down now, needs to hold above $640 for a an uptrend to be made possible. Breaking that will be a bit bearish I feel.
 
kennas said:
Closed 4.88 and I'm out.

Rumours that Barrick are eyeing this have lifted it overnight, so I am going to watch closely. Where there's smoke there's fire with these things....
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Doh! Up 16c today.

....Andrew Wilkinson, a senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group, said that the rumor mill started when call options for Newmont Mining began trading heavily late Monday. “Given the surge in demand for Newmont options, the right to buy shares in the stock have traded six times as much as the rights to sell shares in the company today,” he said.

It may not be Barrick but someone is accumulating as per previous chart volume. That's 2 rumours in the last 6 months, heating up with the gold price :D
 
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