NDO - Nido Petroleum
- Thread starter GreatPig
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Traders, manipulators, opportunists and others playing it. The flow rate is at a maximum so no issue with that. The company is worth a lot more now then the SP says and in time this will rerate.
There are people out there trying to convince you to sell. I wouldn't do it if I were you.
Can't believe it myself - should have bloody well sold out of everything yesterday when it hit the wall at 23!!
And here I was thinking day traders were going to push the SP up above what it should be...not 5c below AND THEN start bailing
Seriously, how can there not be more people out there willing to get in at these levels for the medium term at least? Oh well, just have to wait for the flow rates to percolate out a bit more
Can't believe it myself - should have bloody well sold out of everything yesterday when it hit the wall at 23!!
And here I was thinking day traders were going to push the SP up above what it should be...not 5c below AND THEN start bailing
Seriously, how can there not be more people out there willing to get in at these levels for the medium term at least? Oh well, just have to wait for the flow rates to percolate out a bit more
Most traded stock by volume today. At least it is on the people's radars. I am buying with every spare cent at the moment. Money talks and once flow and revenue announcements are made this one will start to move. Still thought that we might have seen a change in the top 20 shareholders but maybe it has just been day traders getting in and out. Looks like I am going to be hanging around here for a while yet.
I know oilers are probably more rated on their reserves than their income, which makes sense given a well like Tindalo which has a great flow rate but might only last for 18-24 months.
Hence it's more about how likely it is that Nido can replace/increase their reserves rather than the fact that they are now pumping 8000bopd. Still, as my earlier calculations show, at todays close and assuming 15000bopd can be maintained, Nido's PE ratio is going to be about 1.5
Even if Tindalo only has 5mill barrels recoverable, that takes Nido's reserves up to about 5 million barrels including Galoc, which values them at $32/barrel. Actually looking at it that way, that probably only makes them $20/barrel undervalued - another 10c a share?
So we really need a biggie like Gindara to make some significant impact!
Hence it's more about how likely it is that Nido can replace/increase their reserves rather than the fact that they are now pumping 8000bopd. Still, as my earlier calculations show, at todays close and assuming 15000bopd can be maintained, Nido's PE ratio is going to be about 1.5
Even if Tindalo only has 5mill barrels recoverable, that takes Nido's reserves up to about 5 million barrels including Galoc, which values them at $32/barrel. Actually looking at it that way, that probably only makes them $20/barrel undervalued - another 10c a share?
So we really need a biggie like Gindara to make some significant impact!
Did the conversion of the bonds hurt todays prices. If Lynch dumped them all it would look pretty bearish.
However judging from yesterdays action im not too surprised abt today. More surprised abt yesterdays lack of action.
How much of a problem is water in the well?
ndo was expecting 7-15K bopd and they have max flow rates of 18k ish and mean flow of abt 15k ish during the first few days of flow. How much are the flow rates expected to drop off as the well ages. Were the initial flow rates expected to be substantially larger than found? William Bloking seemed happy with it, Why are there no more ndo chairman sucking up shares?
bizzare stock this one my calcs said to sell at 28c yesterday, nowhere near. hmmmm
However judging from yesterdays action im not too surprised abt today. More surprised abt yesterdays lack of action.
How much of a problem is water in the well?
ndo was expecting 7-15K bopd and they have max flow rates of 18k ish and mean flow of abt 15k ish during the first few days of flow. How much are the flow rates expected to drop off as the well ages. Were the initial flow rates expected to be substantially larger than found? William Bloking seemed happy with it, Why are there no more ndo chairman sucking up shares?
bizzare stock this one my calcs said to sell at 28c yesterday, nowhere near. hmmmm
Yep, annoying to see it having trouble with 20c
I would say it will take until the EWT is complete and they have a definite and sustainable flow rate to give us. Assuming all goes well, once they are stabilised at 15000bopd we should definitely see +20c
Latest on the EWT is that they are running it for 100 days - currently producing 6000 barrels of fluid per day...that for me is the worrying thing, there was no mention of the water cut and the tests show it is formation water.
Any experienced oilers out there who can shed light for us on what the issues are surrounding water in the formation, eg can it stuff things up completely or is it just a matter of dealing with the water as it's produced
Regardless it looks like the market doesn't like it
Any experienced oilers out there who can shed light for us on what the issues are surrounding water in the formation, eg can it stuff things up completely
or is it just a matter of dealing with the water as it's producedRegardless it looks like the market doesn't like it
Chance to jump in again around the same price they were before Tindalo flowed! Obviously dependent on positive results from sidetrack but if it comes off it'll be a quick jump back above 20c again - buy side currently double sell side so they're there waiting
Obviously am holding so self-interest talking here, but worth a look people
Obviously am holding so self-interest talking here, but worth a look people
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I'm anticipating positive results and flowing oil in around a weeks time. If this sidetrack is successful and we see strong flows which I believe we will (circa 15k bopd+) then this stock will fly.
It's not all about the profit this will produce...it's more to do with what the additional cashflow enables NDO to do with their much much larger targets. This gives NDO a strong hand when dealing with major farmin's for the future...and if they successfully drill and produce from other nearby shallow targets...watch the cash roll in.
Exciting times.
DYOR.
It's not all about the profit this will produce...it's more to do with what the additional cashflow enables NDO to do with their much much larger targets. This gives NDO a strong hand when dealing with major farmin's for the future...and if they successfully drill and produce from other nearby shallow targets...watch the cash roll in.
Exciting times.
DYOR.
pixel
DIY Trader
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Same here - except that I'm holding KIK. They may be the junior partner in Tindalo, but the expected cashflow will enable them to develop their other prospects.
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Nido are definately worth watching closely IMO. News is due anytime now, just have the fingers crossed they have sorted the issues at Tindalo-1.
Any success here should see us in the 20's short term, and 30c+ after some immediate profit taking IMO.
Risks still remain that the workover hasn't been successful.
Any success here should see us in the 20's short term, and 30c+ after some immediate profit taking IMO.
Risks still remain that the workover hasn't been successful.
Indeed jiggy, I am waiting eagerly for the sidetrack to be completed and flow to surface with little/no water!!! If they have problems with water again, I am bailing.
On another positive though, the results from the seabed coring program in SC58 deep water looked pretty good - I reckon they should be able to find a big partner soon, although if Tindalo comes off OK then they can do a lot themselves
On another positive though, the results from the seabed coring program in SC58 deep water looked pretty good - I reckon they should be able to find a big partner soon, although if Tindalo comes off OK then they can do a lot themselves
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I bailed out this morning on the buying @ .175, sold out to a little loss but well worth it in my eye's. With the latest update on the sidetrack being buried in another announcement, lack of detail or why it was delayed/progressing slowly, coupled that with all the delay's getting the issued resolved had me worried.
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Todays announcement is positive IMO. 5k bopd being choked after only two of four planned acid stimulation. 1% or less watercut is exactly what we needed aswell. They are taking their time this time around and it appears to be working. They have a much larger access to the resevoir with the sidetrack which means as they increase stimulation (they can actually do 8 I believe, but only plan for 4), the flows will increase until they find their optimium flows for sustainable production.
I'm quite happy and am patiently awaiting the next flow results. Well done NDO management this time.
I'm quite happy and am patiently awaiting the next flow results. Well done NDO management this time.
My thoughts too jiggy. The 1% water cut was the key factor, although it would be nice to see around 10k bopd rate at least given their running costs are $250k per day. This would give them a nice margin of $50/b or around $200k per day for NDO (40% share). I definitely want to see that water cut stay stable though
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Agree re: Flow rates, but they've only done half the stimulation/frac so I'm not surprised its lower. The next two lots are still critical to ensure no watercut, but at least we know the fix has worked so far. I'm still expecting flow rates above 10k bopd.
