NCP - News Corporation

[Joe Blow]

NCP has been bouncing up and down in a trading range for months now. A lot of this has to do with exchange rate fluctuations etc.

This morning it is at $13.19 and it looks like it could be getting set to surge through resistance at around $13.20 and head towards the next resistance point at about the $13.50 mark.

Will it rally or falter once more?

Anyone have a view?

 

[JetDollars]

NCP - Your Comment?

Hi Guys,

As you can see from the chart NCP seem to bounce back and for in the range. Do you think NCP is a good company for short-term trading?

 

[still_in_school]

Re: NCP - Your Comment?

Hi Jet$,

personally for me, the share has been going sideway's since May, and in the last several weeks it has been on a downtrend... since mid January to early April, the share has been channeling through $11.80 and $12.50, since then, the share found new support at $12.65 and broke the resistance, yet over the last several weeks the share has pulled back and lost support at $12.65 and at $12.50... just looking at the historical data, and since Feb 2000, NCP has been on a downtrend,

... also looking at the Share, there has been no dividend payout since April 2001...

IMHO, forget this one for the moment...

Cheers,
sis

 

[JetDollars]

Re: NCP - Your Comment?

Hey SIS,

If you are a channel trader will you consider this stock to be the one on your list?

 

[still_in_school]

Re: NCP - Your Comment?

Hi Jet$,

to be honest, i wouldnt bother with this share, its still on a downtrend and could be still several weeks before it finds support...

current shares, that are on my watchlist are...

ADZ, FXJ, BIL, LLC, SFE - these shares are only for the short term... though i have many confidence in FXJ & SFE, though still... they are only cents... away from my entry point...

... grrr... its just a matter of time... till i can pull the trigger on them....

Cheers,
sis

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: NCP - Your Comment?

I've traded NCP a few times this year and come out about even, mostly due to not bailing out when I should have a couple of times.

I find it's a good one to trade for the short term, just don't hang on to it for too long.

Buy it when it hits a support and sell it when it's about to strike resistance. In this respect it's a fairly predictable stock.

 

[Joe Blow]

NCP dives 4.5%

News Corporation closed at $10.93, down 4.5% after the release of its Fourth Quarter earnings.

NCP has been channel trading for some time and considering it now seems to have broken through support at around $11.00, where does everyone think it will bottom out at?

My view is that it will continue to fall until around $10.50, which is an established level of support (April 2003).

 

[Redwing]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

My2c and its only worth that, i like Newscorp and expect it to 'bounce' back as always. Have a friend who's buying all he can with his super.

REDWING

 

[stefan]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

Have a friend who's buying all he can with his super.

Redwing,
How is he doing that? Does he have a DIY super fund?

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[JetDollars]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

NCP now trading above $11.00, interesting to see where NCP heading today.

 

[Mega]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

How is he doing that? Does he have a DIY super fund?

Year ago there was Your Prosperity but NAB closed them down. Recently I came across these guys. Seems that will do the trick for you. They promise web interface to control your super soon.

 

[stefan]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

Somebody is just dumping NCP like there's no tomorrow. Have you seen those sell orders hit at 10.9? Wow...

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[Bingo]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

I am a holder of NCP, but struggle to understand which way it will go next. Some say it is oversold, but then does this take into consideration that maybe Australian funds are readjusting their holdings pending the move to the US and the indicators of an oversold position may not be valid.

The results look good and if you trust Murdocks' judgement that the move to the US will be positive on the share price then they look a buy.

I am not experienced in technical analysis. Can anyone tell me what the charts are saying?

Bingo

 

[GreatPig]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

Bingo,

All the chart is really telling me is that it's at a point of indecision, trying to decide if it wants to go back up or keep going down.

I think it's a case of wait and see which way it breaks out.

Of course this is just my view, and not intended as any sort of recommendation.

Cheers,
GP

 

[Lucstar]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

You guys might doubt me and i heavily doubt myself too, but i think this stock will fall to as far as $10.26.

 

[tarnor]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

it does very much look poised to go either way but I feel its likely to go down to the next support. My novice guess is a 10.40 bottom before it starts heading north again.

 

[Bingo]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

No going to $10.26 would not surprise me. I just think that NCP has this US move hanging over it and this may last for another year. The question is if the influence of the financial institutions will distort the share price over this period.

It's the impact of the whales (Financial institutions both in Australia and the US) that will drive the price and if we can understand the timing of the Australian institutions selling and the US institutions buying over this period then profit opportunities will arise. NCP is very big in the Australian context, but only medium in the US. I think this may imply that the the early reaction might be from the Australian institutions.

Is there an easy way of tracking the institutional shareholdings at regular intervals of time?

Bingo

 

[Bingo]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

Note on Shaw Stockbroking site headed ABN-AMRO: BIL - Yeah baby...well done to the believers! The outlook?
1/09/04 By: Ben Smoker
(http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID={98608FB6-B640-4A6D-B21B-AB8F1CDBCADE})

Quote "NCP: Still no major offshore buyers stepping up to the plate in the Corp as yet. This really is becoming a waiting game into the vote mid-late October. In my view, play the 10.90 – 11.30 range but I would not be caught short as the risk must surely be to the upside if the vote gets up. ADR’s last night were subdued $11.09 in AUD terms.

Note in the AFR on Tuesday talking about local insto’s (the three biggest lenders of NCP scrip) having to recall their stock that they have out on loan to the shorters in the market to enable them to vote on the US reincorporation. (Vote likely mid-late Oct). Total borrowed stock is 300 mill shares. This may put a squeeze on the ordinaries as hedge funds might be forced to cover their shorts.

Additionally, it’s trading on an 05 EV/EBITDA of 8.6x [20% discount to L/T average]. But even more compelling is the fact that News Corporation trades at a significant discount to it US peers, c18% to Disney and c19% to Viacom (News Corp on a A GAAP basis). Management recently stated that it does not expect a significant difference between FY05 US and A GAAP reported earnings.

Get on board – medium term outlook:

NCPIZK 20-Jan-05 1100 Hot DELTA 61
NCPIZL 20-Jan-05 1300 Hot DELTA 36
NCPIZM 28-Jul-05 1150 Hot DELTA 60
NCPIZN 23-Sep-04 1150 Hot DELTA 38
NCPIZO 15-Jun-05 750 Instalment DELTA 89
NCPIZQ 2-Dec-05 750 Rolling Inst DELTA 90
NCPWZI 24-Nov-04 1300 Call DELTA 6
NCPWZJ 22-Dec-04 1200 Call DELTA 11 "

Any thoughts as to the reliability of opinion?

Bingo

 

[stefan]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

You guys might doubt me and i heavily doubt myself too, but i think this stock will fall to as far as $10.26.

Well, i wouldn't trust the charts with this one. I see the main factor in the switch away from the ASX. As it was mentioned before, fund managers will heavily dump NCP and I for one have a feeling that we haven't seen the bottom yet. It was at 10.85 before rising above 11 again and I don't think that Lucstar is too far off with his 10.26. It is an additional risk to hold NCP during the transition as you certainly don't know what's going to happen and how the american investors will take it.

A bit of a gamble. Too hot for me. It has triggered my entry price alert but I didn't buy any. I rather wait and see for now.

Happy trading

Stefan

 

[Bingo]

Re: NCP dives 4.5%

I confess that even with all this good advice I bought NCP at $11.05. I just feel that the fundamentals are good and that this US move thing is depressing the price.

A bit like buy the rumour and sell the fact. In this case I have bought on the theory that when the vote happens either way the vote goes the price will rise because the uncertainty is removed. The price falls on anticipation and rises when it happens.

Time will tell if I am right.

Bingo