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NCM - Newcrest Mining

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I know,my idea was well gold protection, leverage in a miner and here in oz, it is associated to NCM...
The CBA of gold miners for the Aussies average investor.
I lost money and should probably get out...which is a good time for you to buy? as i am a very bad discretionary investor
 
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thanks.
I share similar performance level because also seriously contemplating to unload NCM stocks.
 
Seems undervalued to me. I think its worth more than 2 x book value and b/v is around $16. Earnings per share and b/v have been rising in recent years, debt is modest, share issuance conservative. I've steered clear of NCM because its big cap and has involvement in New Guinea but looking briefly at it now I'd be tempted to take an initial position if I had the money. But then I am an inveterate gold optimist. The only thing wrong that I can see so far is the chart and the gold price and both of those could improve at any time now. As well, shareholders are cum an interim dividend of 19c. Always envied the low cost Cadia asset.

Surprisingly good H1:

 
Correction: NCM is not still due the H1 $0.19 dividend, it went ex in Feb. I think I can blame CommSec's research section for that mistake.

From announcement:
2A.5 Ex Date
Thursday February 18, 2021
 
Miner said:
Hey mate.
Is the volcano in Australia or ?
Cheers
Click to expand...
Lihir Island
Its geologically active, MCM have a geothermal power plant there to power the mine and local village, hasn't flooded in 15 years of operation so not a super big deal, yet a real risk, Lihir is roughly half their annual production.

Lihir Island - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
 
Thanks SC.
Noticed NCM shares kept n moving south.
Is there something hidden giant coming market is just guessing ?
 
NCM @ 27.97
Some good consecutive positive volume in NCM over the last 6 weeks now. Bullish signals in the momentum indicators that are shown. Is this the bellwether gold miner for the sector? This'd be on my shortlist for stocks that have a copper interest too.

Not held

3 Year Weekly
 
NCM was in my stable for years (along with LGL) before I went walkabout. Back interested now, mainly coinciding with my research comparing Cu/Au porphyries around the World and came across the Golden Triangle and Red Chris. This shows quite a bit of upside to me.

Hoping they'll buy into LCL at some point.

 

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Newcrest Mining Limited - Localised Seismic Event at Cadia - No Impact to Production Expected

Melbourne, Australia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 4, 2021) - Newcrest Mining Limited (ASX: NCM) (TSX: NCM) (PNGX: NCM) advises that at approximately 4:0...
www.juniorminingnetwork.com
Newcrest has been working with the New South Wales Government Resources Regulator and a Prohibition Notice has been established around the affected area only. A geotechnical report will be sent by Newcrest to the Regulator today for approval to commence rehabilitation activities in the affected area.
 
Hope people of Cadia and NCM investors are safe on their lives and investment.
It will be a national loss.
As an ex employee of Newcrest my heart is with them.
 
NCM looking much like the XGD, which you'd expect. Similar resistance line, bounce, and hitting the neck of the H&S, target as shown. If the move up continues then I'm expecting the longer term flag on POG to break to the upside.

 
I was questioning where NCM was going to get their growth from with Wafi Golpu on the nose due to PNG politics, and here you have it. But they won't stop here I think. Tacking on DEG will add another 500k pa in the future.

 
Interesting this was sold off quite a bit this morning. More than expected. Maybe the 25% premium was the issue. Not sure how the sp of the target has been trotting the past 12 months but most PMs are well down, so it's not like they might have bought this at the top? In fact, they might be picking it up at a time when POG breaks out and it'll look opportunistic. Good recovery through the day. Perhaps some instos had time to review and thought it was a good deal.

 
NCM has bumped along the bottom of its long term trend channel for 7 years and really should have done a lot better given its annual gold output.
But like most miner, it's always pointing to better years ahead.
Only problem is that gold can be really fickle, so unless you are a very active trader, investors need to hold this one for a decade to get any semblance of a decent return. And even then, it's a matter of buying at cyclical lows.

Despite previous cyclical trends suggesting an inflation "bounce" should have happened, POG has hovered plus or minus $130 off its current price ($1820) for the past year. POG's chart pattern is presently in a wedge formation and I'm going to tip it breaks to the upside on the basis of a gold coin toss I ran. This seems a very reliable strategy with a 50% chance of success, and I recall being told that 50% was a pass, so I am running with it.
 
Unfortunately I was blocked from seeing or posting to all threads by @DrBourse so will reply here on NCM.
@DrBourse used multiple technical indicators to show a trading style, so I thought I would show a simpler way to get a similar result.

In the above, TSI crossing are confirmations of a previous buy or sell, which is made at an inflection. In this chart there are only 3 inflections in the buying zone so clearly it's going to be matched by 3 sales at inflections above the buying zone.
I'm not advocating this as a trading method, but it is very simple and picks up the larger movements in price by using clear pivot points.
What I was unable to work out from @DrBourse's thread was why he used a daily chart when an hourly chart seemed to give a better picture of short term trends. The other point, of course, is that NCM is heavily influenced by the gold price, and because POG is trading 24/7, NCM's opening price each day will have been affected by how POG moved in the preceding 18 hours.
 
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NCM has been in the toilet since gold started going sideways in Aug 20. Looks like it's been punished more than the comparative slide in POG. Perhaps there have been question marks regarding their future production with mines coming off highs, but they look like they'll replace a lot of that with Havieron, Red Chris and Pretium. They're still scheduled to decline in production around 2029 though. Need some good exploration success or a bolt on like DEG that would replace all those ounces and more. Potential double bottom down there.

 
Hi rederob.
You posted the following on 7/1/22 where you asked "Why he (DrB) used a Daily Chart when an hourly chart seemed to give a better picture of short term trends", Not sure why you would think that I don't use shorter term charts, everybody uses shorter term charts, that's just part of the Basic TA Training.


Well M8, I answered your question 2 days before you asked it, see my post (below) dated 5/1/22.


Now you can see some of what you are missing out on.
had you not been so agressive you may still be in the loop, and maybe you would learn some alternative approaches that may help your current trading practices.

TRUCE - behave yourself and maybe I could hit the "unignore" button.

Cheers,
DrB
 
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NCM is the main laggard in my Gold portfolio.

Its completed acquisition of the Canadian Pretium will add much value with a long life asset close to an existing NCM owned mine making the composition of its portfolio of mines less Fuzzy.

Patience.

gg
 
Yes. Patience. Sandeep Biswas plays his cards astutely.
Don't hold any more however but will return.
Canadian venture could turnaround.
 
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