Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NCM - Newcrest Mining

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tinhat said:
The market generally punishes underperformance and poor outlooks at confession time. I can't believe I didn't pay attention to that descending triple (quadruple?) top. Looking back at the chart that was rather ominous.
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Bit of a bounce out of that 'accumulation' zone so far today … up 3.5%.

Given the Gold price and their AISC of under $900/ounce the recent drop looked a bit over done, but my fundamentals are pretty basic.

Interesting that yesterdays low actually filled the gap from 3rd June last year which gives todays price action a 'technical' vote of confidence and should set the short term low at around $27.19 if it goes to plan.
 
Some points on Newcrest's hedge position:
  • The first half of f/y 2020 included 105,768 ounces of Telfer gold sales hedged at an average price of AU$1,708 per ounce, representing a net revenue loss of $33 million.
  • At 31 December 2019, the unrealised mark-to-market loss (before tax) on these hedges was $152 million.
  • Total gold ounces hedged until 30 June 2023 are 658,199 ounces at AU$1,875/oz.
  • Newcrest has now ceased its program of hedging
I guess the good news is that the volume of hedging versus total production represents about 10%/year over the next 3.5 years.
However, it was pretty poor form to hedge so far out with such out of the money returns.
 
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Newcrest is the big aussie Gold miner and if POG is to have a GFC style run up then NCM is the stock that will benefit the most, i can't for the life of me see how with all this apocalyptic fear the POG isn't skyrocketing, it just has to happen at some point.
 
So_Cynical said:
Newcrest is the big aussie Gold miner and if POG is to have a GFC style run up then NCM is the stock that will benefit the most, i can't for the life of me see how with all this apocalyptic fear the POG isn't skyrocketing, it just has to happen at some point.
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SC - Sandeep (CEO Newcrest) will love you for sure but probably think twice hugging you to follow social isolation and paying $1000 fine :). Thanks for your trust on NCM
 
NCM now have earned a 40% interest in Havieron.
Another $25m expenditure earns them a further 20%.
NCM can potentially earn/buy up to 80% interest in this incredibly rich discovery.
One to look forward to.
 
Greatland GOLD AIM:GGP
In accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules ("DTR"), SolGold Plc (the "Company") was informed by Newcrest Mining Limited , in fulfilment of the obligations of Rule 5 of the DTR, and as a result of new shares issued and allotted by the Company and admitted to trading on 9 June 2020, that Newcrest Mining Limited subsidiary Newcrest International Pty Ltd continues to hold 281,216,471 ordinary shares in SolGold, however its interest has decreased from 14.62 per cent to 13.72 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.
 
noirua said:
Greatland GOLD AIM:GGP
In accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules ("DTR"), SolGold Plc (the "Company") was informed by Newcrest Mining Limited , in fulfilment of the obligations of Rule 5 of the DTR, and as a result of new shares issued and allotted by the Company and admitted to trading on 9 June 2020, that Newcrest Mining Limited subsidiary Newcrest International Pty Ltd continues to hold 281,216,471 ordinary shares in SolGold, however its interest has decreased from 14.62 per cent to 13.72 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.
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And where is the DFS for SolGold?

Just like DEG on the ASX!

Just noise until you show me results. Sure, go try ride the wave of euphoria!
 
I sold all my NCM after the record date for the SPP and got most of them back through the SPP. In the mean time I've been trading SAR.

Owning NCM is all about the cycle. I reckon if you are long gold and you want to back a gold miner and you reckon gold is going to go up then NCM is the viola of the orchestra. It ain't going to get a solo but it's there when you need it.
 
tinhat said:
I sold all my NCM after the record date for the SPP and got most of them back through the SPP. In the mean time I've been trading SAR.

Owning NCM is all about the cycle. I reckon if you are long gold and you want to back a gold miner and you reckon gold is going to go up then NCM is the viola of the orchestra. It ain't going to get a solo but it's there when you need it.
Click to expand...

Sure, however:

- What are the proven gold producing assets?

- What is the AISC?

On this basis, NCM are the best on the planet.
 
Aside from the rise of gold's price today improving NCM's lot, their exploration announcement regarding results at Havieron and Red Chris was excellent.
NCM now has some of the best gold assets in the world and as it is more exposed to spot prices than many of its Australian cousins, its next report should be glowing.
Unlike @tinhat I simply added to my 2k+ holding and will sit on it until this bull run in gold runs out of legs.
 
rederob said:
Aside from the rise of gold's price today improving NCM's lot, their exploration announcement regarding results at Havieron and Red Chris was excellent.
NCM now has some of the best gold assets in the world and as it is more exposed to spot prices than many of its Australian cousins, its next report should be glowing.
Unlike @tinhat I simply added to my 2k+ holding and will sit on it until this bull run in gold runs out of legs.
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The Havieron results were massive, one drill result was 109m @ 6.3g/t Au; that is surely confirmation of a potential tier 1 asset; and NCM will only pay $65 million for 70% of this resource. What a bargain.
 
The only cloud on the horizon for gold, is crypto currency, a lot of the price speculation revolves around gold becoming the reserve currency again.
If the World goes to a universal crypto currency, gold becomes jewelry.
To me it is a bit like a game of two up.
Just my opinion.
 
Daily chart for NCM below.

Some volatility in the SP ( a little to much for me) as May ranged range from L to H - $25.15 to $32.36

Some up side for NCM ~ 8% to short term resistance and could possibly have a good week so one to watch.

upload_2020-6-14_17-50-16.png
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
And where is the DFS for SolGold?

Just like DEG on the ASX!

Just noise until you show me results. Sure, go try ride the wave of euphoria!
Click to expand...
SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador
11 March 2020
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador

Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
March 2020
http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf

The Alpala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to 2024.

SolGold PLC Announces Mineral Resource Estimate Update
April 7 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-r...2020-04-07-22643038?mod=mw_quote_news&tesla=y

SolGold employs a staff of 737 employees of whom 98% are Ecuadorean. This is expected to grow as the operations expand at Alpala, and in Ecuador generally. SolGold focusses its operations to be safe, reliable and environmentally responsible and maintains close relationships with its local communities. SolGold has engaged an increasingly skilled, refined and experienced team of geoscientists using state of the art geophysical and geochemical modelling applied to an extensive database to enable the delivery of ore grade intersections from nearly every drill hole at Alpala. SolGold has 86 geologists, of whom 30% are female, on the ground in Ecuador exploring for economic copper and gold deposits.
 
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noirua said:
SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador

Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf

The Apala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to to 2024.
Click to expand...

NCM and BHP own a significant portion of the company. I looked at SolGold; I want to see a PFS before I jump in. Same with DEG, where is the PFS?
 
noirua said:
SolGold in talks to source $2.85bn of funding for Alpala project in Ecuador
11 March 2020
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/ne...85bn-of-funding-for-Alpala-project-in-Ecuador

Solgold Powerpoint Presentation
March 2020
http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-conten...rporate_PPT_PDAC-2020-ECUADOR-DAY_final-1.pdf

The Alpala contract is very big and the reason Newcrest jumped in. It will take up to 4 years before it reaches close to the maximum production level. As it is such a big mine for the future there are the usual risks on the way to 2024.

SolGold PLC Announces Mineral Resource Estimate Update
April 7 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-r...2020-04-07-22643038?mod=mw_quote_news&tesla=y

SolGold employs a staff of 737 employees of whom 98% are Ecuadorean. This is expected to grow as the operations expand at Alpala, and in Ecuador generally. SolGold focusses its operations to be safe, reliable and environmentally responsible and maintains close relationships with its local communities. SolGold has engaged an increasingly skilled, refined and experienced team of geoscientists using state of the art geophysical and geochemical modelling applied to an extensive database to enable the delivery of ore grade intersections from nearly every drill hole at Alpala. SolGold has 86 geologists, of whom 30% are female, on the ground in Ecuador exploring for economic copper and gold deposits.
Click to expand...

Have you seen the movie GOLD: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1800302/

Not saying these entities are the same, but you still need to be careful. A published PFS will mitigate investment risk, yet your margin of profit will not be as great if you wait. What is your risk appetite? That is the question here.
 

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