I think its a pretty solid company, but a very stupid and powerful person once famously spoke about not knowing what you don't know. I don't think I've ever made money from a gold mining stock!My comment before market opens, has not been accepted by market. The price for today has not halted the south direction. Now I am getting panicked - something could be seriously wrong with Newcrest, and outsiders do not know.
I thought the June 2020 continuation gap was likely to be filled and suggested it as a re-entry point back in July from memory.
Anyway, as the past month has seen POG rise nicely the probable carry through into 2020 will see the likes of Newcrest outperform much of the market imho
I actually took a few shares a few minutes ago, from both charts, POG and gold discussion, probably a bet to takeAlong with that line of thinking I have NCM as one of my picks in the yearly comp.
I read and re-read their report and wondered why COMMSEC has a "sell" on them as of Friday with a $25 target price.Newcrest has done it again -
all good metrics even Telfer with my surprise because of low grade and getting closed in less than 3 years (??) unless some good ore body comes (My ENR hope)
In addition cash from sale announced late today.
One postulate is the fear of groundwater loss in Cadia and possible drought.I read and re-read their report and wondered why COMMSEC has a "sell" on them as of Friday with a $25 target price.
AISC are US$860/ounce with an AISC margin of approx $600/oz.
As of this quarter NCM are selling at over $1500/oz which is be best they have received since April 2013.
NCM expects to produce between 2.2moz and 2.5moz of gold in the financial year so will be making massive profits even if POG were to settle where it is today (approx $1580/oz).
However, I expect POG to be well over $1600 by mid-year, with a likelihood that the coronavirus scare will see a big spike next week, thus sustaining POG over $1600 from next week onwards.
The other things that COMMSEC seemed to overlook was that NCM have had recent exploration successes, while their Red Chris mine in Canada is still ramping up and will not be at full production until 2021. In that light, I can't see much bad news ahead.
My only issue with NCM is the odds on working in what is a near active volcano.putting a money making facility there is not for the faint hearted but this is the reason gold is there in the first place.One postulate is the fear of groundwater loss in Cadia and possible drought.
And adding a bit more about Red Chris:Don't forget the tie in with the UK's AIM quoted Greatland Gold GGP. Drilling results at Haveiron, Patterson prospect, show substantial Au widths open at depth that look very promising. Even for a company the size of Newcrest it is very interesting.
https://greatlandgold.com/
385 square kilometres in north western Australia and includes the Company’s Havieron prospect with peak grades of 211.3g/t Au, 12.38% Cu and 4,104ppm Co and which is under a US$65M Farm-In agreement with Newcrest Mining.
This is part of the Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest at Havieron gold/copper project – Newcrest earning up to 70% by spending up to US$65m.Don't forget the tie in with the UK's AIM quoted Greatland Gold GGP. Drilling results at Haveiron, Patterson prospect,....
I see coronavirus as a big plus for NCMThis is part of the Farm-in Agreement with Newcrest at Havieron gold/copper project – Newcrest earning up to 70% by spending up to US$65m.
As I noted after reading even more about Newcrest's pipeline of projects, it is hard to see them doing anywhere near as poorly as COMMSEC has forecast, barring an unforeseen catastrophic event (nothing like coronavirus).
excellent article and video - I am honestly not nervous on NCM because I know the operation and management so well. If there is any inside story - then can not guess and will suffer myself too.The elephant in the room: How large could Greatland Gold and Newcrest Mining’s Havieron project be? (GGP, NCM)
https://miningmaven.com/blog/1009-t...newcrest-mining-s-havieron-project-be-ggp-ncm
Greatland Gold (LSE:GGP) powered forward to a record high of 3.78p at the end of last week after posting an “outstanding” set of drilling results for the Havieron asset it is advancing with Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM).
With a market cap of £104.1 million, the Australia-focused gold explorer and developer sat nearly 110% higher than it did at the beginning of 2020 after riding a massive wave of increased trading volume in its shares.
The market is now eager to see the extent to which Greatland can build on this success and how big Havieron could ultimately prove to be, with an extra $25 million expected to be spent on the property this year.
i am seeing it add than sell.
The market generally punishes underperformance and poor outlooks at confession time. I can't believe I didn't pay attention to that descending triple (quadruple?) top. Looking back at the chart that was rather ominous.Market has not been friendly since the half yearly. For longer term gold bugs that old range could prove an accumulation zone as you say @Miner
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