NCM - Newcrest Mining

[notting]

The employment numbers are complete statistical noise & guestimates - they have been proven to be completely without any substance based on any hard data, so for the Fed to base policy (raising rates) on this set of figures is pointless. Just look up Birth/Death model to see how they simply make things up or extrapolate to trend.

Your listening to too much Republican BS. You could argue that it's a backward indicator and that wage growth is a better indicator of inflation danger.

Put it this way, in this climate I wouldn't be making trading decisions to short a gold company by what the Fed may or may not do?

The gold trade on Fed speculation has been an absolute cracker. As soon as everyone thinks the Fed is going to raise, gold is given the death sentence by every talking head under the sun and as soon as a sizable country starts going neg interest, printing, what ever - the currency war is on 'the Feds not going to raise against that' and goldies go nuts!

PS gold on the verge of breaking out again so hope you have a tight stop on those shorts?

You betcha it's not a stop it's a flip!! and buy all the others!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Employment numbers sham from an insider -

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/la...-suggests-former-fed-official-says-2016-03-08

Wages peaking out, structural decline -

 

[notting]

Employment numbers sham from an insider -

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/la...-suggests-former-fed-official-says-2016-03-08

Wages peaking out, structural decline -

View attachment 66028

It's irrelevant, you go with the general news flow and what's happening on the street. The street is sayen that workers are getting hard to come by. That means have to pay to get what you want and that is the FEDs inflation signal and that is why they raised in December.

China neg news yesterday can flip sentiment and oil so that's the play now.
It's testing ten day support and the 1600 break and holding. On the Neg news from China, now being responded to in kind. Being down on that is a little contrarian so taking profits, looking to go long, but have to see what the heads think the Fed is going to do,

 

[notting]

Big reversal on this too.
It was smart money too!!!!! - all came in at the close and smashed it from close to it's high.
Gold is going to take a hit.
Sold all my smaller goldies.
as I wrote in SBM thread -
Fed will raise again even if it is only twice and the market will wake up and reverse on that especially as Europe is likely to need to stay the course on expanding the balance sheet. making the $ get stronger when it's finished this little correction.
Markets are going to be positive for a little while so while global sentiment is going to be ok no need to hedge for macro disaster.
China has realized that a strong yaun with international hand clapping behind it gives them lots of money to buy stuff internationally. So they will hedge their propping up of the Yaun with that. No crises in the news.
All good. Gold bad!
Big short.

 

[notting]

Bearing in mind the nudge nudge wink wink agreement rumored to have occurred but denied by the Chinese about no more currency competing, nobody is winning.
Watching gold and how NCM it behaves as it has a good day getting close to 1760 showing a bit of selling action and joining.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Bearing in mind the nudge nudge wink wink agreement rumored to have occurred but denied by the Chinese about no more currency competing, nobody is winning.
Watching gold and how NCM it behaves as it has a good day getting close to 1760 showing a bit of selling action and joining.

Notting and Uncle,

I haven't looked at gold for a fair while. which is the best ASF thread to follow atm on gold? NCM seems a good value thread, any others?. I could do a search and go in to each thread, but thought I'd be lazy. A mix of fundamental and charting. Thanks.

gg

 

[notting]

Notting and Uncle,

I haven't looked at gold for a fair while. which is the best ASF thread to follow atm on gold? NCM seems a good value thread, any others?. I could do a search and go in to each thread, but thought I'd be lazy. A mix of fundamental and charting. Thanks.

gg

I like this one cause it's the biggest gold stock on the ASX so it's the best indicator of what the internationals are doing with our gold relative to the dollar.


Re trade - Closed at the open - global growth perceived to be slowing. Yellen Dovish.

 

[notting]

US $ appears to be stabilizing from it's recent rout on the back of not as much interest rate rises as previously anticipated.
Gold could weaken from here if global economy goes a bit better than priced in.
Started to go short again on NCM

 

[piggybank]

Another goldie up today - 11%. Last time we saw it at these prices - that is NCM - was 3 years ago.

 

[notting]

Fortunately I wasn't short going into today.
However the reaction to the US jobs data was totally over blown.
Analysts reckon this is still good value, so just watching while it's popular.
I will still be surprised if it's up tomorrow.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Time, trend & sentiment? Breakup = market risk off, CB bubbles burst?

 

[Miner]

Oct 19-2017 last posting.
It is almost 5 months and there was no posting. So I thought to write something.
Folks, how many of us realise that NCM is an Australian company, unlike Barrick or Newmont?
How could us in ASF because so immune not to comment on the massive earthquake effect on Cadia gold mines - so many weeks of production loss?
THen insult to injury - today's press report on CADIA (second natural incidence) about tailing episode - market flogged with about 5% down. Today market was very juicy, people are on holiday in East and generally buoyant market.
What happens tomorrow?
Newcrest is a good gold company with CADIA still the darling with an absolute AISC from that site, growth in PNG (do not forget the earthquake in PNG recently sand reportedly NCM mines were escaped).
Just watching on side line. .

 

[kid hustlr]

From what I have seen NCM has almost been the worst performing major gold stock on the ASX over recent months.

A lot of the gold stocks have performed well lately - perhaps it's finally NCM's turn to join the party.

 

[greggles]

That announcement on 12 March regarding the Cadia northern tailings dam really had a big impact. It was a bit of an overreaction, but it's clear the dust hasn't settled yet.

I think it's just a matter of waiting until the sentiment pendulum starts to swing back into positive territory. It's definitely undervalued at the moment.

 

[greggles]

A lot of the gold stocks have performed well lately - perhaps it's finally NCM's turn to join the party.

NCM up 2% this morning and looking to break through $20.40. Might finally be ready to make a sustained move north.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

NCM up 2% this morning and looking to break through $20.40. Might finally be ready to make a sustained move north.

Yes, I think many gold stocks are going to have a massive and sustained run.

 

[greggles]

Yes, I think many gold stocks are going to have a massive and sustained run.

I agree. Newcrest finished the day up 2.8% so things are looking positive. We just need to see gold head north tonight.

 

[Trav.]

Just looking at a couple of goldies and noticed NCM heading towards their 52 week low of $19.31

I had a look at the March Qrtly and could not see if they hedged their gold sell price. Does anyone know?

 

[barney]

Not sure about all their projects Trav or what they have after June this year but I assume they would have some form of forward planning as in the past … Telfer Hedging up to June 2018 below

 

[notting]

Gold stocks are rallying today but NCM isn't
I remain unconvinced unless NCM goes with them.
It's the biggest and gets more international interest so it kind of indicates that theres not a huge amount of safe haven hunting just yet.
It's just local punters!

Although NST is almost the new bell weather ausi goldie and it's certainly showing strength.