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NCM - Newcrest Mining

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jdenhaan said:
The question is whether that decade low is a function of market sentiment or business fundamentals.
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NCM has a market cap of $6.5b. Three years ago they bought Lihir for $10b. That's massive destruction of shareholder wealth. I wouldn't trust these guys to run a lamington stall. This ain't market sentiment, it's management incompetence.
 
Could be ripe for a take over by newmont
Rumour a long time gone by that this one day be happening
They getting for peanuts at the current price as all the write off, f**k up has been done
What they get now is pure asset

Someone must be running the number at this price
 

So the stock has now entered the upper band of the target area.

What you want to see is a bit of stabilisation in the price before jumping in but placing small chunks in between now and $6 smooths out the roller coaster ride and satisfies the fear of missing out.

Ideally, you'd want to see a bounce followed by a higher low or at least some time taken up at lower levels.

It's difficult to imagine this stock regaining it's huge decline in the same amount of time that it has come down. Not many charts look that pretty that aren't penny dreadfuls.

A likely scenario will see this stock oscillate for a few years between a possible extreme capitulary low of around $2-$4 (crazy but not impossible... my $6-8 target half way through the year seemed just as impossible) and find resistance at around $8-$12 (the beginning of the huge bull run).

Of course, just my view fwiw. Personally, I've got better things to do with my money but I have enjoyed watching this stock and brush up on my basic TA skills which I have no use for nowadays but am forever amazed at how accurate they can be
 

Great posting.
My - please provide some rational on your price speculation of $2-4.
Yes, gold fever has been cooled down specially from India more and more bad news (from Australian perspective) that with stronger US $, craze for diamond and platinum, Indian women (rich) are not inclined for gold. The buyers are middle class but they do not buy kilos of gold like rich women and black money converters were doing.
But the above statement from me (purely based on financial daily readings in Internet) even does not give any rational for Newcrest pricing of $2 to $4.
ASF used to have a rule not to predict price without facts - any one listening

disclaimer - I do not hold NCM but worked with Newcrest Gold Mines in the past.
 

Miner said:
Great posting.
My - please provide some rational on your price speculation of $2-4.

But the above statement from me (purely based on financial daily readings in Internet) even does not give any rational for Newcrest pricing of $2 to $4.
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Thanks Miner,

I have stated all along that I am using technical analysis to come up with my price targets. "Rational" doesn't come into it. You are asking me to come up with some fundamental reasoning for the "possible extreme capitulary low of $2-4" and I'm not interested in fundamentals. I believe that price action is king.

In any case my price target of $6-8 has been reached however I have offered some room for movement as stock prices tend to over shoot targets. NCM does not appear to have reached a capitulary low where we see a really ugly down day supported by a huge spike in volume which could be the turning point for the stock. These exhaustive lows can be quite extreme and if we were to see another massive sell off in gold or some bad news come out on NCM the $2-4 range is the lowest point the stock has seen in the last 15 years and this would act as an area of support. I wouldn't bet on seeing the stock that low but I just offered it as an "extreme" possibility.

$6-8 was my target.

Hopefully that clears it up for you.
 
ftw129 said:
Thanks Miner,

I have stated all along that I am using technical analysis to come up with my price targets. "Rational" doesn't come into it.

$6-8 was my target.

Hopefully that clears it up for you.
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Cleared it up for me...you only mentioned the word Gold once, i could be mistaken but i think the POG may, i say just may have some influence over the Share price of NCM.
 
So_Cynical said:
Cleared it up for me...you only mentioned the word Gold once, i could be mistaken but i think the POG may, i say just may have some influence over the Share price of NCM.
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Definitely in the long-term...

In the short-term, movements in the POG can be overshadowed by other factors.

OP was talking about short-term.

There we go
R^2 of 0.65 over the last two months between NCM and gold (per UBS Broker Report)

For the kids playing at home, see http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/11/2/saupload_jl8.jpg for an example of a graph with an R^2 of 0.65
 

Dear Ftw129

Yes it is now clear as mud
More seriously thanks a lot and what you stated makes a better sense to me now.
Take care and all the best

Miner
 
NCM's recent price action has just hit resistance at the top of the current 3 year long down trending channel. Price action suggests a fall back down to at least $10-$8. Should it find support there and continue back up past it's recent highs, a long entry at around $12.50 or above on good volume will be justified.

Should the recent low of $6.96 fail and not find support at $6, a retracement back down to the bottom of the channel (which just so happens to be the pre bull area of $2-$4 back in 1998- 2001) is not not an impossibility and is actually quite likely should we see a final panic thrust down. Nothing's impossible in this game. Those of us who have been playing it for a while know this very well.

The likelihood of it's recent bounce being the end of the down trend, although not impossible, is quite low.

The trend is still down.



(Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)
 
Pretty good ftw. Pretty damn good analysis.
 
Still respecting the resistance line at the top of the downtrending channel with the recent sell off (isn't technical analysis a beautiful thing?!)



Interestingly, we have formed what looks like the perfect set up for an inverted head and shoulders which is a bullish pattern.

Should the stock break through the channel resistance line and break through the "neckline" of the pattern (as drawn on chart) it will be time to enter a long position.

Could this be the end of the trend? It is starting to look positive but you MUST wait for confirmation.

You will always miss the exciting early gains of a turn around because they are impossible to pick.

The trend is still down until further notice.

(Of course I could be wrong. Just my opinion. Do your own research)
 
I was asked in another thread why I took a trade so this is the best place to answer. I basically use a mix of Gann and Guppy. I use a 20 period SMA in a scan because it usually is a good approximation for a trend line. This is the day my order was placed.

The price had jumped over the SMA and close was higher than the open. The stoch was increasing. Price was above the 50% retracement level.



Price had closed above the MMA and the MMA was narrow.



The Gann swing chart had made a higher bottom and recent highs had been taken out.




The order to buy on stop 2c above the high was placed.
It didnt trigger for the next 2 days but since they were still above the MA the order stayed in place.

It was filled on the open above the high from the first day. Stop being managed with Guppy count back line.




Stop now has trade in profit. Time will tell how much I get...provided there isnt a nasty gap down.
 
the other way of seeing that in a non T/A way is that every year or nearly, gold goes up in july/august; and this seems to repeat;
I indeed bought relatively heavy on gold last month and expect/hope the cycle will repeat.
But you can always have a black swan event or a company specific drama:
DYOR I actually did not get any NCM this time as I expect more variation in the gold juniors
 
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