Might be getting close to the end of the NCM run unless NEM come out with a bid. Had a great run since bottoming at $19.00.
Hit $24.00 today.
Brokers are divided now due to the relative price movement I think, but there's still support there. Targets range from $17
to $28.
I think the $28.00 valuations are better.
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - Target $26.20 (was $24.76). Production for the quarter was a little lower than the broker had expected due to lower grades at Telfer, Cadia Hill and Ridgeway.
The broker notes the company''s copper hedging will be eliminated next year, so earnings may receive a boost if copper prices remain strong.
It sees potential for some share price weakness in the short-term given copper production at Telfer in FY07 has been revised lower.
Valuation has increased to $17.70 from $17.52.
Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$2.70 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Neutral - With Telfer copper production forecasts being revised down the broker has cut its earnings estimate for FY07 by 10% to $196m.
The broker notes the issues at the mine are slowly being addressed and the strategic positioning of the company remains good, though it is not as well placed as some competitors to enjoy the current earnings leverage to strong commodity prices.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$0.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
JP Morgan rates the stock as Neutral - Lower copper production has been offset by higher gold production, the broker reports. Earnings fall 5% in FY07 and rise 5% in FY08. Guidance was maintained, which the broker still feels is a bit of a stretch for Telfer.
Target rises from $22.50 to $23.00.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference
$0.50) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Neutral - Reduced copper production has led to earnings downgrades, but the broker is more confident in gold production, particularly at Telfer. However, the stock is still well-priced.
Current Price is $23.50. Target price not assessed.
SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy, High Risk - Target $28.10 (was 26.83). Group output for the quarter was higher than the broker had forecast, while it notes comments from management indicate operations at Telfer continue to improve.
This improvement is proving to be positive for sentiment, so there is no change to the stock''s position as the broker''s preferred gold stock.
Target price is $28.10 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$4.60 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2 - Q1 production was slightly below the broker due to Telfer, but the broker is pleased that guidance has been maintained, implying no further production problems (even at Telfer).
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference:$1.50 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).