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NCM - Newcrest Mining

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Uncle Festivus said:
There's a squeeze going on & the ultimate direction may surprise? The battle of longs v shorts. You will be hearing more of JPM?
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This is so true, every time it drops longs have to wait a little longer for a return.

And this morning there is legal drama and an action lawsuit against them - I guess the ASX investigation didn't go perfectly then.

Maybe ill make more money off a class action ha ha.
 
wadesansom said:
ouch!

i guess now most people will be selling... 12 million in lawsuits, then the possibility of shareholders taking a class action lawsuit. can't be good for business!
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$12m one-off lawsuit for a $6B company. That's probably just a rounding error.

The class action will not be that big anyway. It's only people who bought say a few days prior to the market update who may have the right to sue for damage. I don't have the volume at hand but I can't imagine it being, at most, 15% of the company's shares suffering 15% loss they could have otherwise avoided had there been more timely disclosure. That's just 2.25% of NCM's market cap. It's big from the litigation lawyer's point of view, but not in relation to NCM.
 
I bought some during the 'decline' but bought a lot more after, so I'd be interested in a class action if only to replace the div, although at these levels there's probably more up than down to go, especially if the POG breaks out? It's still got a lot of head room (sellers) to clear though so some sort of stabilisation at these levels would obviously be supportive while the weak hands clear their decks to value buyers? At these prices and after the write offs it's still a big discount to underlying assets ie oversold?
 
Be interesting to see how this goes IF the sentiment to POG changes upward. I think there could be some dramatic spikes up if QE / USD / inflation factors point towards renewal of the POG bull.

Jim Rogers would be buying now I think.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Anyone done a valuation on NCM lately?
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A valuation? You can't get a meaningful answer because you can't get a meaningful answer for the price of gold.

You can do a cross-sector comparison and see if NCM is relatively under/overvalued amongst gold stocks.

You can also do a sensitive analysis to see what NCM is worth at different levels of gold price.

You can even structure some smart hedged position where you potentially long NCM and short gold.

But anyone attempting a straight up valuation would be kidding themselves.
 

ok I did all those three calculations, averaged them, and then I wrote the number on the back of an envelope (which usually helps) and then I did this dance for a few minutes :bananasmi

Came out at $2.50.



I can't do FA. I want someone else to do it for me.
 

But what happened to the SCREAMING BUY!?
 
Gringotts Bank said:
I can't do FA. I want someone else to do it for me.
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Sorry, FA doesnt work for cyclical resource stocks, thats why generally you wont find us holding resource stocks.

I reckon your method would be just fine, maybe check the tea leaves for a confirmation though.
 
galumay said:
Sorry, FA doesnt work for cyclical resource stocks, thats why generally you wont find us holding resource stocks.

I reckon your method would be just fine, maybe check the tea leaves for a confirmation though.
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I meant one of the comparative valuation methods skc pointed out.

But yes I'm going hard here with the glow sticks... Cue the music :bananasmi
 
It was a screaming buy, those who bought it are screaming.
Its starting to look like an ERA.
On a positive note, ya wouldn't want last nights drop in the US stock market and recent rise in bond yields to be the start of the inflation play.
 
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