Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NCM - Newcrest Mining

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tech/a said:
That being the case it has traded as low as $1.30 whilst a producer in 1997
Personally pretty well all bubbles---gold being a bubble retrace to their origin.
Half its current price isn't an impossibility.
I still cant see the sense in accumulating as a stock is falling.
Why don't people accumulate while its rising??

Always served me well?
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My own personal valuation of NCM is that at POG US$1400/oz its share price ought to be $28. If the POG falls to US$1000/oz I still think the shares are worth $20. So on that basis (if my valuation methodology is sound) my opinion is that NCM is currently way oversold and I am happy to accumulate at prices below $20.
But who can pick the exact bottom of anything?
Of course I could be very wrong about all of this in which case you will be entitled to tell me so but it will not bother me because I am not scared of being wrong.
 
Bintang said:
My own personal valuation of NCM is that at POG US$1400/oz its share price ought to be $28. If the POG falls to US$1000/oz I still think the shares are worth $20. So on that basis (if my valuation methodology is sound) my opinion is that NCM is currently way oversold and I am happy to accumulate at prices below $20.
But who can pick the exact bottom of anything?
Of course I could be very wrong about all of this in which case you will be entitled to tell me so but it will not bother me because I am not scared of being wrong.
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Nothing wrong with being wrong
I'm wrong often.
It's about what you do when you are wrong
And how long you stay wrong.

It's easy to pick a bottom
When you can see it!

If your a serious investor using serious money say 500k
Seeing your investment constantly decrease in price as you
Buy 100k parcels as it falls ---- isn't good for your account.

Then again a serious investor would never put his capital base at such risk.
He'd average up NOT down.

It's about being profitable not clever--or right!
 
Tech/a you are my guru!!:D
If anyone see NCM as a screaming buy and want to go long, why not get a put option against your new purchases?
if it is so oversold, the option fee should easily be coverred by the raise in let's say a year, and if you are wrong, loss will be minimal:
Not an advise obviously buit I just did bought some under that scenario:
I believe in NCM case. shares will be either below 10 or above 20 in a year: no middle ground so i went put protection.
I would also add that when you mine a volcano, buying some insurance might make sense :eek:
DOYR
 
Off 6% in a day!

Gotta be some buy opportunity there fella's??
 
Jumped the creek.....:cautious:

Bloody h*** thats 2 nice ASX shorts I've missed out on!:eek:

CanOz
 

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skyQuake said:
Can you believe it closed 14.60 in the US?

Interesting to see a few other goldies up today though
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They got ganged up by the analysts at a pretty major support level.

UBS yesterday and Citi and Credit Swiss put the boot in today, all downgrading NCM to sell.

NCM used to be the more stable of the gold stocks because of its long mine life... now it's just as volatile as a $20 junior.
 
skyQuake said:
Can you believe it closed 14.60 in the US?

Interesting to see a few other goldies up today though
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explains the creek jump on the ASX then...
 

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UBS yesterday and Citi and Credit Swiss put the boot in today, all downgrading NCM to sell.
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So Bintang seems a pretty knowledgeable guy.

Have all the Fund analysts got it wrong.
If its such good value as a few
here have "proven" with sound argument.

Why don't the classify it as a "Screaming buy"?

Why don't you see experts advising that you average down?
 
tech/a said:
Why don't you see experts advising that you average down?
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Because the 'experts' simply follow the herd. How many banks have recently downgraded their previous above parity forecasts on the AUD to below parity since this latest move? If it rallies back up above parity, they will probably switch their forecasts around again.

I don't follow this stock, but a lot of successful fundamental traders have done very well buying below what they calculate to be intrinsic value. It's just a matter of getting this calculation right, and keeping it fluid. And also depends on the investment timeframe.

*All generally speaking and not related to NCM
 
prawn_86 said:
Because the 'experts' simply follow the herd. How many banks have recently downgraded their previous above parity forecasts on the AUD to below parity since this latest move? If it rallies back up above parity, they will probably switch their forecasts around again.

I don't follow this stock, but a lot of successful fundamental traders have done very well buying below what they calculate to be intrinsic value. It's just a matter of getting this calculation right, and keeping it fluid. And also depends on the investment timeframe.

*All generally speaking and not related to NCM
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You know I've never seen buying below intrinsic value demonstrated to return a consistent profit.
Sure you hear how someone as had a trade or two pay off but you don't hear about those who are trapped in long term bottom draw trades where they are chasing a Breakeven
 
tech/a said:
You know I've never seen buying below intrinsic value demonstrated to return a consistent profit.
Sure you hear how someone as had a trade or two pay off but you don't hear about those who are trapped in long term bottom draw trades where they are chasing a Breakeven
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While i don't disagree that there is probably a lot of 'fundies' who don't make good returns, there are plenty of other styles the same. Most average punters in the market don't make money, no matter what their style.

If you are truly interested in fundamentals, and not just trying to spruik your way as best, PM McLovin or ROE and ask about their returns and buying below fair value etc. Topic for a different thread however (one which has been done to death)
 
Bintang said:
I last topped up my NCM holdings at $15.03 a few days after two NCM directors added to their own holdings when the price was $17.50. Insiders usually have a keen idea what their company is really worth so presumably they thought $17.50 was a good buy. I thought $15.03 was an even better buy but here we are today and the price has closed at $14.56 after reaching a low of $14.28.
Where is this going to end up?
Is there a chartist out there?
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$11 descending triangle target

big.chart.gif
 

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