NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

Why would you encourage the NBN to replicate infrastructure when the FTTN trial rollout is at least 4 months behind schedule.

You haven't looked very closely at the data.

Individual suburb delays are up to 4 months as noted by the article author but the overall delay is 1 month.

 

[sydboy007]

You haven't looked very closely at the data.

Individual suburb delays are up to 4 months as noted by the article author but the overall delay is 1 month.

How do you get to an overall 1 month delay when half of the trial rollout is 2+ months late?

Jobs for the HFC rollout were still being advertised Leeds than 2 weeks ago which doesn't bode well for a sexy upgrade either.

 

[drsmith]

How do you get to an overall 1 month delay when half of the trial rollout is 2+ months late?

You're an intelligent boy Syd.

Take another look at the data and you'll figure it out.

 

[sydboy007]

sums things up pretty well



This morning the NBN company released its latest corporate plan. The document reveals up to 550,000 less Australian premises would receive the full Fibre to the Premises rollout than had been previously been planned under the Coalition’s Multi-Technology Mix, with the project’s funding requirement also blowing out by between $5 billion and $15 billion.

I love these little gems:

...quality of this network is not fully known as there has been limited opportunity to evaluate the physical infrastructure at significant scale.

However, it is known that there is significant work required to remove broadband blockers from the copper network,

Hands up anyone who'd buy a used car without fully understanding the condition it's in, but accepting all future liabilities with say asbestos clean up and any repairs required. Thoedy's userd car lot is doing a booming business.

 

[drsmith]

This morning the NBN company released its latest corporate plan. The document reveals up to 550,000 less Australian premises would receive the full Fibre to the Premises rollout than had been previously been planned under the Coalition’s Multi-Technology Mix, with the project’s funding requirement also blowing out by between $5 billion and $15 billion.

Did you see the cost per premise for FTTP ?

 

[sydboy007]

Did you see the cost per premise for FTTP ?

The redacted info or the stuff being released for public viewing?

 

[Tisme]

Even the dowager leader, Malcolm couldn't help but blame Labor for the ridiculous bungling, under his watch, of the NBN in the outback, until Leigh rebuked him for wandering off subject.

Where's that broken record pic?

 

[H C]

Coalition clowns MTM patchwork in disarray just as we predicted. Blowout just was we predicted. Unable to deliver 25mbps in 2016 just as we predicted. NBN management made up of incompetents. Corporate plan of little substance full of filler stock photos, 3 pages out of 94 used for management clown team alone. Only a few Turnbull apologists still in denial about the disaster we predicted. Most quite rightly hiding under rocks sucking their thumbs.

http://delimiter.com.au/2015/08/24/we-must-determine-how-the-15bn-nbn-cost-blow-out-occurred/

If the plan is to be believed — and the Minister strongly emphasised today that it is — then the NBN Strategic Review underestimated the peak funding required to complete the NBN project by at least $5 billion and perhaps as much as $15 billion over the life of the project.

http://delimiter.com.au/2015/08/24/...se-to-blame-labor-says-on-nbn-cost-blow-outs/

“The cost of the Coalition’s second rate NBN started out at $29.5 billion in April 2013, it blew out to $41 billion in December 2013, increased again to $42 billion in August 2014 and today it was announced that it will now cost up to $56 billion.”

http://delimiter.com.au/2015/08/24/nbn-co-delays-fttn-rollout-for-further-testing/

the company estimated that about 37,200 premises would be declared ready for service in September this year, with a further 35,200 to be added in October. However, the site reported last week that the latest monthly ready for service plan released by the NBN company showed a mere 2,100 premises would be declared ready for service in September — and only 9,600 expected premises expected to be activated in October.

Pathetic.

 

[drsmith]

The redacted info or the stuff being released for public viewing?

If it was redacted, I wouldn't have seen it.

 

[sydboy007]

If it was redacted, I wouldn't have seen it.

So how does one come up with a figure of $1600 for FTTN when NBN management admits that "...quality of this network is not fully known as there has been limited opportunity to evaluate the physical infrastructure at significant scale."

They also go on to say "However, it is known that there is significant work required to remove broadband blockers from the copper network,"

The assumptions they used to come up with their FTTN costs have been redacted so there's no way for anyone to actually see if the costs are based on reasonable assumptions or not.

I seem to remember that the Melton rollout trial also had the cost per premises down below $1600.

Even Paul Fletcher admits the Abbott Govt has been tricky with the truth surrounding FTTP

http://www.itwire.com/government-te...erestimate-labor’s-nbn-cost-admits-government

Then Fletcher, in February 2014 said in a public forum, in a direct response to my question, and in front of dozens of witnesses, that NBN Co’s internal review of Labor’s NBN had costed it at $56 billion, much closer to Labor’s figure than the inflated estimate the Coalition took to the election.

When I quizzed him on the disparity between the Coalition’s $90 billion estimate of a FTTP network and the much lower NBN Co estimate (made by the management team the Coalition had put into place) of $56 billion, the best Fletcher could say was that the Coalition estimate “may have been a little high”.

A lot of the forecasting by NBN also has a falling ARPU or at best increasing at roughly the rate of inflation.

Strategic Review Trajectory A (high case) ARPU was ~2.5% nominal
Strategic Review Trajectory B (low case) ARPU was ~0% nominal

Currently NBN is seeing over 8% YoY ARPU growth, all provided by the Labor NBN as there's no commercial services on any of the MTM components. We were constantly told that all the high speed plans were the early adopters, but for ARPU to continue to grow there must be a reasonable increase in customers willing to pay for the higher tiered plans, especially since CVC costs were dropped.

 

[drsmith]

So how does one come up with a figure of $1600 for FTTN.......

Well done Syd.

You found the page and would have noted the FTTP per premise capex in the same table on that page.

 

[sydboy007]

Well done Syd.

You found the page and would have noted the FTTP per premise capex in the same table on that page.

And if you have a look at the strategic report you'd notice that most of the information that would allow an understanding of how the various forecasts were made have been redacted.

Fletcher has already admitted the Govt has not been particularly honest with the figures they've used in the past, and with the lack of openness around the assumptions underlining the current corporate report, forgive me for being sceptical that they've not been massaged in a similar way to Chinese GDP figures.

 

[H C]

Another scathing assessment of the Turnbull mess from Paul Budde being less diplomatic than usual, even he has had a gut full of the imbeciles and lies.

http://www.buddeblog.com.au/frompaulsdesk/the-nbn-more-lies-leading-us-from-bad-to-worse/

My real problem is not the delay and the higher costs, but the fact that for all of that we get a network that will not deliver us the capacity and quality needed to build a modern economy and society.

Nailed it.

 

[drsmith]

Syd,

Look at LTD performance on the next page.

You'll note that's not a forecast.

 

[sydboy007]

Syd,

Look at LTD performance on the next page.

You'll note that's not a forecast.

Send a bit unfair when the FTTN COP had this caveat

(e) The CPP excludes the impact of initial trial arrangements, where costs are not in line with long term expectations (due to low volume, and bespoke commercial and delivery arrangements), and excludes contingency.

There's no transparency into how those CPP figures were calculated.

 

[H C]

http://www.zdnet.com/article/nbn-october-map-update-extending-to-three-year-outlook/

"We now put out a forecast for the next 18 months, and probably in a month and a half, you're going to see a three-year view," he said. "You'll be able to go onto the website, at that point, look up your suburb, and see exactly when that's going to occur, or in the rough time frame as to when construction will start."

Clown car pilot Bill Morrow explaining exactly when you'll get nothing, after the next election when it's politically convenient, you can see the election time adverts now "VOTE FOR US NOW OR YOU WONT GET THEM CRAP SPEEDS WE PROMISED. ALSO STOP THE BOATS!!!"

 

[So_Cynical]

Another scathing assessment of the Turnbull mess from Paul Budde being less diplomatic than usual, even he has had a gut full of the imbeciles and lies.

http://www.buddeblog.com.au/frompaulsdesk/the-nbn-more-lies-leading-us-from-bad-to-worse/


Nailed it.

Another quote from Paul

It becomes clear that this government didn’t have a clue about its proposed ‘cheaper and faster option’. It was nothing more than political rhetoric.

Aside from the delay, the government has now also been forced to admit that its second-rate version of the NBN could cost as much as $56 billion. If it was not so sad it would be funny.

And this guy was a supporter.

 

[drsmith]

Send a bit unfair when the FTTN COP had this caveat

(e) The CPP excludes the impact of initial trial arrangements, where costs are not in line with long term expectations (due to low volume, and bespoke commercial and delivery arrangements), and excludes contingency.

There's no transparency into how those CPP figures were calculated.

What FTTN may ultimately cost doesn't change what FTTP is costing.

 

[sydboy007]

What FTTN may ultimately cost doesn't change what FTTP is costing.

I questions those costs, because they're way out of whack to what project fox was delivering.

If NBN were releasing the cost of each FSAM it would give us some clarity on how the costs are going.

I don't think it's unreasonable to question that the current nbn management would be doing their bst to show FTTP as being as expensive as they can, while doing their best to present the FTTN and HFC costs as low as possible.

With the lack of transparency from the Govt there's no real way to know the truth. I can't see that there would be any commercial reason why they can't release relatively fine grained costs for the various technologies.

 

[drsmith]

You need to remember Syd that on matters transparency, Stephen Conroy's own words spoke for themselves.