NBN Rollout Scrapped

[drsmith]

Don't get too excited Syd.

Remember that Labor's fanciful FTTP rollout was a smoking train wreck marooned on the side of the tracks when this government came to office.

 

[So_Cynical]

Don't get too excited Syd.

Remember that Labor's fanciful FTTP rollout was a smoking train wreck marooned on the side of the tracks when this government came to office.

Smoking wreck hey? according to who?

 

[sydboy007]

Don't get too excited Syd.

Remember that Labor's fanciful FTTP rollout was a smoking train wreck marooned on the side of the tracks when this government came to office.

Over the last 18 months it's the only growth of the NBN.

Over the next 18 months, lets see. Take out the fake jump in NBN connections when the HFC networks are handed over to NBN as they'll be barely fit for service till a few billion in upgrades is spent.

Were you expecting the FTTN rollout to have a go slow limitation for the first 18 months of operations? I knew there's be issues with running ADSL and VDSL over the same infrastructure, but thought MT would let the service degradation for those on ADSL force their move to FTTN.

FTTB may turn out to be a fast growth area, though TPG has gotten around the anti competition rules of MT. Funny how MT turned from encouraging competition to doing his best to cruel it eh.

The fun part will be just how the FTTN is handled. MT can pretend all he likes about how easy it will be, but it's a lot more complicated than the FTTN rollout. He'd have been better to have done FTTdp and then everyone could have paid for their connection as required, rather than just new home owners.

This slow down also seems to indicate that customers will be moved one by one to the node as NBN orders are actioned. That's got to be a fairly costly exercise. Even if you can do a few lines at a time you might have 80-100 tech attendances for each node over the 18 month transition period for customer migration. Who's paying for that? It's not something required with the move to FTTP.

Remember the rolls royce satellites that MT said weren't needed. Well Morrow has pretty much admitted they were the way to go. So far on time and on budget baring a disaster at launch. Where would we be if MT had gotten his way and we were trying to find service via commercial operators?

 

[drsmith]

Some memories here are very short.

 

[sydboy007]

Some memories here are very short.

You seem to have forgotten the Liberal 25Mbs to all by the end of their first term and the broken promise just 3 months after the election.

It's quite funny that those with a decent ADSL connection now face the prospect of a slow lane FTTN connection until the copper network gets shut down. I wonder how many people who bought the Liberal spin thought this was the way of the future.

Still no node count estimate. Still no max copper length. Reports in some of the trial sites indicate customers from other pillars being moved. At what cost? How much longer copper runs and reduction in maximum speed?

What the Liberals are delivering is not what they promised at the election, yet you're far more critical of Labor.

 

[drsmith]

You seem to have forgotten the Liberal 25Mbs to all by the end of their first term and the broken promise just 3 months after the election.

No Syd I haven't and I haven't indicated that I have.

 

[Tisme]

Should never have been used as a vote catcher, but sold to the public as an offset asset to the sale of utility assets.

 

[IFocus]

Some memories here are very short.

And some here seriously blind........mean time I am in line to connect to the NBN in the coming months..............it will seriously reduce my costs and massively improve productivity

 

[sptrawler]

Well in Mandurah, there is fibre to the home at my place and both my neighbours.

None are connecting, wireless only seems to be the choice.:1zhelp:

It's a bit like gas and electric, you have to pay service costs on both, if you can mitigate your usage and only use one it makes sense.

The NBN is going to be a 'white elephant' untill you can force people to use it.

If your internet and phone needs can be serviced on wireless, why would you add the extra cost of NBN.

Most people I know, aren't.

Everyone is talking about all these baby boomers, going into retirement, they were canny with their money when working.
They will be more so, when retired.IMO

I'm sure the take up will be abysmal unless the cost is minimal, then the return on investment will be crap.

 

[So_Cynical]

If your internet and phone needs can be serviced on wireless, why would you add the extra cost of NBN.

Most people I know, aren't.

Then most people you know don't use the internet much.

----------------------

I get Fibre connected on Friday after a 4 week install wait and 6 months after my building was made fibre ready, im one of the lucky ones as the fibre stops just up the road, those people are stuck with copper for the foreseeable future, connection cost of about the same.

I could save $10 per month on a far inferior wireless service...but i have a clue, i use the internet.

 

[sptrawler]

Then most people you know don't use the internet much.

.

Well that is the issue, most people I know don't use the internet enough to justify a bundle.

For example my mother, my mother in law, don't use the internet at all.

My oldest son and his family do.

My second son hardly uses a phone at all.

My two daughters are full wireless, no landline at all.

This might be unusual, but I doubt it.

Unless you have a desire to have high speed internet, why would you spend $60/mth as well as your mobile plan?

 

[Tisme]

The NBN is going to be a 'white elephant' untill you can force people to use it.

You are aware that the analogue system is kaput in a couple of years and NBN will be the only hard pipe connect available?

Wireless is hopeless so far in comparison to even analogue for repeatability, consistent speed, consistent connection.

 

[sydboy007]

Well in Mandurah, there is fibre to the home at my place and both my neighbours.

None are connecting, wireless only seems to be the choice.:1zhelp:

It's a bit like gas and electric, you have to pay service costs on both, if you can mitigate your usage and only use one it makes sense.

The NBN is going to be a 'white elephant' untill you can force people to use it.

If your internet and phone needs can be serviced on wireless, why would you add the extra cost of NBN.

Most people I know, aren't.

Everyone is talking about all these baby boomers, going into retirement, they were canny with their money when working.
They will be more so, when retired.IMO

I'm sure the take up will be abysmal unless the cost is minimal, then the return on investment will be crap.

If you can get by on an expensive wireless data plan then by all means do it, but I don't really know anyone who could get by with a 1 or 2 GB a month data limit, especially when it includes uploads as all mobile based data plans do. Better make sure they bill you in 1KB increments as some do it in 10 / 100 and even 1000KB increments which can chew up your allowance very quickly.

I don't consider my household to be an extreme example, but 3 people go through 120-150GB a month, though that has increased by 20-30GB since stan and netflix got introduced.

Ask anyone trying to work from home if they can do it via a 4G dongle? Might be acceptable when out on the road, but certainly not what you want to put up with all the time. Latency sucks on those networks, making remoting in to work a pain. Congestion in peak times also becomes an issue.

I don't see my parents as being outliers, but when they got offered to connect to the NBN they jumped at the chance. No more line rental. Faster speeds. 4 times the download limit, all while cutting their costs and getting access to far cheaper phone calls. Just bought my dad a mini ATOM based PC so he can watch stan more easily. Am expecting him to upgrade his allowance soon as he's likely going to watch it more than standard TV, especially as he gets entire seasons to watch on demand. He already watches an hour or 2 of youtube videos most days. He loves the inventiveness of people and see how they build things.

If netflix UK offers the kind of shows my mum enjoys I'm sure she's going to want a similar set up to my dads in her TV room, and then you'll have for a few hours a day 4Mbs of video traffic. That's 500KB a second. That's not affordable on any kind of mobile service.

At work we've seen netflix traffic already jump to over 30Gbs in peak, and it never seems to drop much below 10Gbs, even in the middle of the night. We're also signing up a few hundred fetch tv subscribers a month. Traffic for that is on a gentle glide towards 10gbs in peak. Each channel requires around 2Mbs, so gives you an idea how popular streaming is already, and we're no where near the levels seen in the USA.

ABC iView is extremely popular too. Any time there's a glitch we get so many complaints from customers. We lso offered it unmetered, which helps to make it an affordable way to catch up shows you missed.

The world is moving on from fitting into a broadcast schedule to watching what we want when we want it, and to a degree where we want to. Fixed broadband is the only way this is possible.

Our SME customers are saving a small fortune as we can migrate them to the NBN. Gone are EFM services or bonded SHDSL that cost a bomb. Supporting higher bandwidth needs on the NBN is just so much cheaper for us, and far easier to support as well. I'm sick of telstra techs telling me there's no good pairs left, a CNI has been lodged, that Telstra moves at snail pace fixing these issues. It's galling we have to raise interference investigations to get a qualified tech to work on a fault, and we pay for the service even when the tech fixes a fault within the Telstra network. How many companies get away with billing customers to fix issues they're responsible for? Will be interesting to see how FTTN copes with these issues.

NBN is not the easiest company to deal with, but they are far better than Telstra, and they don't have a vested interest into trying to cruel the opposition.

 

[sydboy007]

No Syd I haven't and I haven't indicated that I have.

So scathing of Labor, but accepting of the Abbott and Turbull bait and switch network.

Come one come all for the faster cheaper more affordable network to be in your neighbourhood no later than December 2016.

Oh, slight change in plans. Now we'll be in your neighbourhood no later than 2019? Oh, there's no more speed guarantee either, but you know 15Mbs is plenty.

Oh another slight change in plans. Now when we get into your neighbourhood you'll be speed limited for up to 18 months, and in fact you might have to take a speed drop depending on where in the node lotto copper rankings that you are.

Oh, something else you should consider. If you do need / want a higher speed than 25Mbs after the speed limit is removed, it's back to an upto range. Node lotto will determine what you get. Ah, another slight caveat is the upto speed only needs to be available once in a 24 hour period. Ah, how long is that period? TBA.

Oh, now we're trying to limit the CAPEX costs to fudge the MTM is cheaper, so new housing estates will have to stump up some extra cash. This is supported by Liberal voters as they tend to be older and already in established housing where they get their connection for free.

So one has to wonder what the next change in plans will be.

 

[sydboy007]

Senator CONROY: What does a high degree of transparency mean to you?

Mr Morrow: One to which we use the basis of a standard model which is a publicly traded company and the obligations associated either legally or from the stock exchange and that is, indeed, what we practice.

Senator CONROY: So, you do not think that it has anything to do with transparency to the public?

Mr Morrow: It is a standard that we believe that we use for transparency to the public.

Senator CONROY: No. Transparency to the stock exchange are manufactured things that you do not have to do. You just manufacture that. I have got no complaint that you have manufactured it, but that does not satisfy transparency to the public and transparency to the parliament when you refuse to answer a single question about a single expense incurred by your company.

Mr Morrow: We believe that we are compliant with the current government's position that NBN should be more transparent and we believe that we are””

Senator CONROY: No, not more; a high degree of transparency.

Mr Morrow: And we believe that we do have a high degree of transparency.

Senator CONROY: Not being prepared to publish, on your own admission with no direction from the government, any information about your forecasts complies with a high degree of transparency?

Mr Morrow: It does, as that is a government decision and not an NBN decision.

Senator CONROY: I said if the government does not direct you. If it directs you I accept that, but you have stated that you would not do it anyway. So, I am asking you, do you think that complies with a high degree of transparency in refusing to publish a single forecast beyond seven months?

Mr Morrow: I believe it complies with a high degree of transparency, prudency and responsibility to protect the investors who are the taxpayers of Australia.

Senator CONROY: Protect the investors. You are protecting the taxpayers from themselves?

Mr Morrow: Indeed.

 

[Knobby22]

Unbelievable. They just don't even bother anymore.

 

[drsmith]

So scathing of Labor, but accepting of the Abbott and Turbull bait and switch network.

As appealing as Labor's FTTP dream seemed, the history of how it progressed under that government cannot be forgotten or changed.

Further to that I'll also add that continuing to spend time at the alter of the discredited Mr Red Underpants is time wasted.

 

[sydboy007]

As appealing as Labor's FTTP dream seemed, the history of how it progressed under that government cannot be forgotten or changed.

Further to that I'll also add that continuing to spend time at the alter of the discredited Mr Red Underpants is time wasted.

So what is your perceptions of the current rate of rollout for the MTM? Recently there were roughly 70 non FTTP customers. Not a bad run rate I suppose.

Do you think tax payers have gotten a good deal from the renegotiations with Telstra and Optus? My understanding is NBN has now taken on the asbestos liabilities from Telstra. Not sure what that would be worth, but is a decent risk now borne by tax payers.

Morrow has already admitted that by moving towards Docsis 3.1, bleeding edge technology, will allow them to cut back on CAPEX as they will take the increased bandwidth it offers to reduce the splitting of amount of new nodes to be introduced into the network. So when MT talks about 1Gbs/100Mbs connections being available, is he talking theoretical, or are they actually going to have the bandwidth available to support those speeds? Is it hype over reality? I suppose we'll have to wait till 2017 to find out as they're only going to start trials sometime in 2016.

 

[drsmith]

I didn't think Syd that you'd stand at the alter of Senator Conroy for very long. It is after all now a very lonely place.

As for that long term reluctance to accept that Simon Hackett isn't on the dark side,

Morrow has already admitted that by moving towards Docsis 3.1, bleeding edge technology, will allow them to cut back on CAPEX as they will take the increased bandwidth it offers to reduce the splitting of amount of new nodes to be introduced into the network. So when MT talks about 1Gbs/100Mbs connections being available, is he talking theoretical, or are they actually going to have the bandwidth available to support those speeds? Is it hype over reality? I suppose we'll have to wait till 2017 to find out as they're only going to start trials sometime in 2016.

Simon Hackett December 14 2013,

Upgrade paths beyond 100 megabits for HFC are noted in the strategic review document on page 100. However, the review is also being conservative (in my view) in framing DOCSIS 3.1 as only supporting up to 250 megabit services on HFC.

I have participated in vendor briefings already in which I’ve been shown the rollout path via DOCSIS 3.1 all the way to delivering 1000 megabit data rates. These upgrade paths start to become possible once DOCSIS 3.1 equipment hits the market in the next 3-5 years.

It is also important to note that coaxial cable doesn’t have the very short distance limitations that copper does, at gigabit speeds.

These are much ‘fatter’ cables – in physical and in spectral terms. They are of a far higher quality than copper phone lines, and are capable of sustaining dramatically higher bandwidths.

The link from which the above has been sourced has been long since been posted on this thread however I have posted it again below for reference.

http://simonhackett.com/2013/12/14/hfc-in-the-nbn/#more-1090

My bolds.

 

[sydboy007]

I didn't think Syd that you'd stand at the alter of Senator Conroy for very long. It is after all now a very lonely place.

As for that long term reluctance to accept that Simon Hackett isn't on the dark side,



Simon Hackett December 14 2013,



The link from which the above has been sourced has been long since been posted on this thread however I have posted it again below for reference.

http://simonhackett.com/2013/12/14/hfc-in-the-nbn/#more-1090

My bolds.

I'm not deny that DOCIS 3.1 can handle 1Gbs speeds. I'm asking is the HFC network going to be provisioned for these speeds, or is NBN being forced to take the increase in spectral efficiency and cut CAPEX so that the available bandwidth is such that only up to 100Mbs will be possible?

Morrow has already come out in the Senate Committee and admitted that DOCIS 3.1 will allow them to reduce CAPEX by reducing the node splits ie higher level of contention within the NBN.

Is MT and NBN management being honest when they talk about the potential of 1Gbs via DOCIS 3.1, or is it yet another bait and switch where the eventual product rolled out is far lower than what was promised?