NBN Rollout Scrapped

[sptrawler]

Its physical state is but one parameter. Even in a good state, the capability of copper pairs is limited. Last time I saw data, 44% of NBN fibre connections so far had chosen the 100/40Mbps speed and a further 23% had chosen 50/20Mbps. That's 67% of users that have chosen a speed tier that's essentially not possible over copper pairs. Even brand-new copper. And it's only 2013! What will the demand curve look like in a decade?

People who want it can have it.
If you want fibre to your house Myths, you can have it, so can Sydboy and So Cynical. You will have to pay from the node, that's the only difference.

That shouldn't worry you. Why does everything have to be about getting everything subsidised?

When I chose to build a house on a rural block, I had to pay extra to get the power connected, even though it ran across the front of the block. I accepted that as it was my choice to build there.

Why, if you have the same telecommunication cable to your house as I do, should I subsidise your upgrade?
When I'm quite happy with my existing connection?

When my connection is no longer serviceable, or obsolete, I will get it upgraded. The same as I have done with my T.V, computer, fridge, car and just about everything else.

It smacks of the same flawed logic, that was applied when those who paid to insulate their houses, then had to subsidise everyone else who got it for free.
How does that bring about a better society, when everyone sits back with the expectation someone else will pay for everything? How does that encourage endevour and self improvement?
Didn't mean it to be a sermon

 

[NBNMyths]

People who want it can have it.
If you want fibre to your house Myths, you can have it, so can Sydboy and So Cynical. You will have to pay from the node, that's the only difference.

That shouldn't worry you. Why does everything have to be about getting everything subsidised?

When I chose to build a house on a rural block, I had to pay extra to get the power connected, even though it ran across the front of the block. I accepted that as it was my choice to build there.

Why, if you have the same telecommunication cable to your house as I do, should I subsidise your upgrade?
When I'm quite happy with my existing connection?

When my connection is no longer serviceable, or obsolete, I will get it upgraded. The same as I have done with my T.V, computer, fridge, car and just about everything else.

It smacks of the same flawed logic, that was applied when those who paid to insulate their houses, then had to subsidise everyone else who got it for free.
How does that bring about a better society, when everyone sits back with the expectation someone else will pay for everything? How does that encourage endevour and self improvement?
Didn't mean it to be a sermon

You could just as easily make the same argument about FTTN, or even ADSL.

Anyone can get an FTTP connection to their house right now, if they are willing to pay the cost of it.


There are many people who don't even want ADSL, let alone VDSL2 via FTTN.

So why should Grandma who only wants voice have paid for Telstra to install ADSL equipment a decade ago through her overpriced line rental charges?

Why should the Coalition fund an FTTN rollout to everyone?

How about we do nothing at all, and just let people pay up-front for the upgrades they want.

.....

It is your logic that is flawed. The NBN rollout is funded from the monthly fees of those who connect. People who choose a higher speed plan pay more for that privilege. Hence, they do "pay for it themselves", just monthly rather than up-front. On the FTTP NBN, people who connect at 100Mbps pay 50% more per month than those who connect at 25Mbps. It's actually the 50/100/250/500/1000Mbps plans that subsidise the 12/25Mbps plans, because they earn so much more monthly revenue.

Speed for speed, the monthly fees for FTTN won't be any less than the monthly fees for FTTP. Because while the capex will be less, the revenue will also be less because the revenue-generating high end plans will not exist for most people. Yes, they could pay $3,000 for an upgrade, but most won't. There are a lot of people who would be more than happy to pay an extra $20/month for 100Mbps, but they would not (or could not) pay $3k up-front for that privilege.

Worse, under the "user pays" FTTP upgrade proposed by the Coalition, the high end users will pay twice. Not only are they asked for an up-front ~$3k fee for fibre, but they would also pay the original FTTP monthly fee which was set at that level to fund the FTTP rollout.

 

[sptrawler]

Why should the Coalition fund an FTTN rollout to everyone?

How about we do nothing at all, and just let people pay up-front for the upgrades they want.

Nobody is saying do nothing, some are saying take a sensible step, don't jump in the deep end. Others have a vested interest, if all self interested groups are pandered to, chaos rules.

.....

It is your logic that is flawed. The NBN rollout is funded from the monthly fees of those who connect. People who choose a higher speed plan pay more for that privilege. Hence, they do "pay for it themselves", just monthly rather than up-front. On the FTTP NBN, people who connect at 100Mbps pay 50% more per month than those who connect at 25Mbps. It's actually the 50/100/250/500/1000Mbps plans that subsidise the 12/25Mbps plans, because they earn so much more monthly revenue.

Speed for speed, the monthly fees for FTTN won't be any less than the monthly fees for FTTP. Because while the capex will be less, the revenue will also be less because the revenue-generating high end plans will not exist for most people. Yes, they could pay $3,000 for an upgrade, but most won't. There are a lot of people who would be more than happy to pay an extra $20/month for 100Mbps, but they would not (or could not) pay $3k up-front for that privilege.

Worse, under the "user pays" FTTP upgrade proposed by the Coalition, the high end users will pay twice. Not only are they asked for an up-front ~$3k fee for fibre, but they would also pay the original FTTP monthly fee which was set at that level to fund the FTTP rollout.

Like the example I gave with the insulation, those people paid twice, I didn't hear outrage.

The blowout in cost of fttp will IMO, be enormous and will result in a botched system that costs heaps more than estimated and will be aborted. That will affect everyone one way or another, some will have others will have nothing. But everyone will pay extra for the stuff up.IMO

To bring in an example. In W.A the Government was going to retro fit an old 240MW Power Station, well this week they have pulled the pin, overtime, overbudget, not working.

Myths I have great respect for your knowledge, but I think fibre to the node IMO is the only model that will get up universally.
Only my opinion.

 

[So_Cynical]

but at the same time it's not confirmation that the copper should be discarded as a whole based on it's physical state.

Current state of the copper network is pretty much a non issue..its old technology that was superseded 20 years ago that's why it has to go...it served the nation well since the 20's but its time is over.

People who want it can have it.
If you want fibre to your house Myths, you can have it, so can Sydboy and So Cynical. You will have to pay from the node, that's the only difference.

Great so basically 2 delivery networks and one backbone, a fibre backbone, wonder why they have chosen fibre for the back bone? wonder why Telstra has been laying Fibre back bones for 20 years???

In a decade we will end up with streets where half the households have paid for Fibre and half the houses are on copper with more leaving copper every year while the nodes will continue needing power and maintenance...its crazy.

 

[Smurf1976]

To bring in an example. In W.A the Government was going to retro fit an old 240MW Power Station, well this week they have pulled the pin, overtime, overbudget, not working.

I'm pretty sure that was one of those "public - private" things wasn't it?

The ones where the private sector takes all the profits and the taxpayer carries all the risks as seen in this example. The NBN is very similar in a broad sense to that concept - taxpayers are taking the risks but the profits are largely privatised.

 

[sptrawler]

Current state of the copper network is pretty much a non issue..its old technology that was superseded 20 years ago that's why it has to go...it served the nation well since the 20's but its time is over.



Great so basically 2 delivery networks and one backbone, a fibre backbone, wonder why they have chosen fibre for the back bone? wonder why Telstra has been laying Fibre back bones for 20 years???

In a decade we will end up with streets where half the households have paid for Fibre and half the houses are on copper with more leaving copper every year while the nodes will continue needing power and maintenance...its crazy.

So Cynical, I don't mind debating with Myths he has some knowledge of the issue.

But for you to say "great 2 delivery networks and one backbone".
I don't hear you standing up for people who only have single phase on their house, yet others have three phase.

Then again you could really jump up and down for people who live on rural properties and only recieve 500v two phase.

Yet they are all on the same backbone, why don't they all have 440v three phase?
I'll tell you why, because it doesn't make sense.
Why not? because the requirement doesn't justify the cost.

But trust me every farmer would love three phase power supplied by the taxpayer.

In answer to your last comment about half the street on fibre half on copper.

You already have half the households in the street on single phase and half on three phase,.
Why because half only need single phase and the other half want three phase.

It would be as dumb as $hit to give everyone three phase when they don't require it.
But that reasononing seems to be lost on the self serving, who want it, because they can.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm pretty sure that was one of those "public - private" things wasn't it?

The ones where the private sector takes all the profits and the taxpayer carries all the risks as seen in this example. The NBN is very similar in a broad sense to that concept - taxpayers are taking the risks but the profits are largely privatised.

Yes, absolute disaster, initial concept to burn biofuel(carbon tax).
60 year old mild steel boilers with no reheater, what were they thinking?

 

[So_Cynical]

So Cynical, I don't mind debating with Myths he has some knowledge of the issue.

But for you to say "great 2 delivery networks and one backbone".
I don't hear you standing up for people who only have single phase on their house, yet others have three phase.

Then again you could really jump up and down for people who live on rural properties and only recieve 500v two phase.

Yet they are all on the same backbone, why don't they all have 440v three phase?
I'll tell you why, because it doesn't make sense.
Why not? because the requirement doesn't justify the cost.

Who the hell wants 3 phase? seriously what the **** are you talking about?

Drinking?

I cant be bothered goggling but does 3 phase require its own street wiring like copper/fibre do?

Answered my own question, 3 phase comes from the pole so does not require dedicated street wiring unlike copper/fibre.

 

[sptrawler]

Who the hell wants 3 phase? seriously what the **** are you talking about?

Drinking?

I cant be bothered goggling but does 3 phase require its own street wiring like copper/fibre do?

Answered my own question, 3 phase comes from the pole so does not require dedicated street wiring unlike copper/fibre.

Lots of people want three phase, farmers, like I said have had to buy expensive two phase motors for years.
But no one has jumped up and down about their disadvantage, at not having state of the art technology.lol
The rest of Australia has had 3 phase for 100years, yet they have had to manage.

Plenty of people have sheds where they want three phase machinery, it costs less.

Does 3 phase require street wiring? yes.
Is it available? yes
Do you have to pay extra to get it connected? yes

Does it down load movies? no
Does it give access to pr0n? no
Does it make things work more efficiently? yes

 

[sydboy007]

Nobody is saying do nothing, some are saying take a sensible step, don't jump in the deep end. Others have a vested interest, if all self interested groups are pandered to, chaos rules.

.....

The blowout in cost of fttp will IMO, be enormous and will result in a botched system that costs heaps more than estimated and will be aborted. That will affect everyone one way or another, some will have others will have nothing. But everyone will pay extra for the stuff up.IMO.

So you think the Liberal FTTN will come in on time and on budget?

Just for fun, when do you think the first FTTN node will go live?

Do you believe MT when he say EVERYONE will have a minimum of 25 Mbs download speeds by Dec 31 2016? - That would require probably 2/3 of the estimate 50-60 thousand nodes to have been installed - Quite an engineering feat. MT has not advised what the maximum cable length is for his 2 stage rollout so it's hard to know exactly what the cost will end up being.

 

[Calliope]

NBN Co will now probably fall in a heap, having lost their great project manager...Stephen Conroy.

 

[NBNMyths]

NBN Co will now probably fall in a heap, having lost their great project manager...Stephen Conroy.

Go Kev!

 

[drsmith]

Go Kev!

misogynist.

 

[sptrawler]

So you think the Liberal FTTN will come in on time and on budget?

Just for fun, when do you think the first FTTN node will go live?

Do you believe MT when he say EVERYONE will have a minimum of 25 Mbs download speeds by Dec 31 2016? - That would require probably 2/3 of the estimate 50-60 thousand nodes to have been installed - Quite an engineering feat. MT has not advised what the maximum cable length is for his 2 stage rollout so it's hard to know exactly what the cost will end up being.

Very few, if any major projects come in on time or on budget.
I doubt very much that the FTTN will be fully rolled out. Possibly in major towns, but I would think it will be doubtfull small country towns will be done in the foreseeable future.

However FTTN would be a lot easier to deliver than FTTP and cost containment wouldn't be easier to manage. There would be minimal interaction with the public, which has to be a good thing.
IMO the FTTN would be an ongoing roll out, with fairly predictable timeframes and costs (what they will be I wouldn't know).
However fitting a cubicle in the street and terminating the main feeder cable and existing outgoing pairs, is a lot easier than also replacing the outgoing pairs to the premise.
So my honest opinion is, the chances of a universal upgrade is more probable with FTTN.
If the FTTP had continued, we would be both dead and gone before it would have been finished.
Like I said only my opinion.

 

[drsmith]

NBN Co's selective sign up incentives,

NBN Co has paid out just over $110,000 in credits to Australia’s second biggest ISP iiNet to encourage it to sign new customers onto the National Broadband Network.

iiNet has signed on around 5500 new NBN fibre customers since January when NBN Co launched its migration incentive ”” a $108 payment to ISPs, valid to June 30 this year, to encourage them to move customers off their own infrastructure and onto the NBN.

NBN Co recommended the payment be passed on to consumers. iiNet offered its customers a $100 credit and free BoB Lite modem.

Of the 5500 new sign-ups made by iiNet since January, only 1020 customers were eligible for the incentive.

The payment is applicable to customers in pre-determined fibre-serving areas (FSAs) and wireless-service areas (WSAs), as well as other areas nominated by NBN Co.

Eligible FSAs include Coffs Harbour, Crace, South Morang, Mernda, Toowoomba, Townsville and Gulliver.

Applicable WSAs include Ballarat, Huonville-Ranelagh, Tamworth and Toowoomba.

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/348101,nbn-co-paid-iinet-110k-for-new-customers.aspx

On another issue (past discussed in this thread),

iiNet chief executive Michael Malone said Senator Conroy’s departure represented an opportunity for Labor to change small but vitally important aspects of the national broadband network.

He said adopting the Coalition’s favoured approach for bringing broadband to apartments, which installs fibre to the basement instead of every single unit, would save a large amount of time and money.

“This is something [many people support] but NBN Co was given a directive not to from the government,” he said. “The positive out of [Prime Minister Kevin] Rudd’s speech last night is he said he’d reach out to business, although there’ll be some scepticism about that from the community.

“I think there was a complete lack of consultation ... and so it all became a bit of a debacle.”

http://www.afr.com/p/technology/telco_chiefs_call_for_nbn_changes_tn6jqq20eE7CkEEnY6Dd7M

 

[sydboy007]

However FTTN would be a lot easier to deliver than FTTP and cost containment wouldn't be easier to manage.

How? No audit has been done on the copper network, no determination of maximum cable lengths. Replacing faulty copper will be a major cause of cost blow out and as yet I've not been able to find anything that the Libs have published that shows if they have included any form of copper remediation in their costings.

However fitting a cubicle in the street and terminating the main feeder cable and existing outgoing pairs, is a lot easier than also replacing the outgoing pairs to the premise.

Major issue will be there is no updated records for how the main cable pair to the pillar connects from the pillar to the house. I can see extended outages due to this issue as all services will be off the air while the main cable is cut over to the node and then the techs have to try and sort through 100 (maybe more) pairs to house and connect them to the right main cable pair.

I see the FTTN entrenching Telstra's dominance of the network. I'll be surprised if a node can even be installed before a new contract with Telstra has been agreed, passed by the ACCC, voted on by shareholders, then signed.

It might be sometime in 2015 before much happens, and Telstra knows they have MT by the cajones and that every month without a deal just makes it more likely they'll get what they want.

 

[sptrawler]

How? No audit has been done on the copper network, no determination of maximum cable lengths. Replacing faulty copper will be a major cause of cost blow out and as yet I've not been able to find anything that the Libs have published that shows if they have included any form of copper remediation in their costings..

Currently the copper network works, therefore the parameters built into the outlet ports at the node would conform to the current requirements. That is easy.

Major issue will be there is no updated records for how the main cable pair to the pillar connects from the pillar to the house. I can see extended outages due to this issue as all services will be off the air while the main cable is cut over to the node and then the techs have to try and sort through 100 (maybe more) pairs to house and connect them to the right main cable pair.

The cable to the house, isn't a two wire cable it is a six or seven wire cable, only two are used.
You don't need records to know which wires to use, you just bell them out.
At the same time you can test the resistance, if it is high you could use another conductor. Sorry if your from an electrical background, not being patronising.

 

[sydboy007]

Currently the copper network works, therefore the parameters built into the outlet ports at the node would conform to the current requirements. That is easy.

VDSL and vectoring is a whole different beast to ADSL2+. Far less forgiving of line issues, or you wont get the speeds being forecast / promised.

The cable to the house, isn't a two wire cable it is a six or seven wire cable, only two are used.
You don't need records to know which wires to use, you just bell them out.
At the same time you can test the resistance, if it is high you could use another conductor. Sorry if your from an electrical background, not being patronising.

I support ULLs at work - the same copper pair that will be used for FTTN. Telstra seems to have mass disruptions over half the country. Currently taking 2 - 3 weeks in some areas to get a tech to work on a fault. Talk to our field techs or people in the area - no floods / bush fires or natural disasters. One has to wonder what is going on. Oh and we're not talking about remote places. We've had suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney in this situation.

one of the bosses lives over in Manly. He's lucky to get 3.5Mbs. We fault his line to Telstra on a monthly basis. So far they've been unwilling / unable to fix the issue. he needs a new copper pair, but seems none is available. I would argue that a lot of houses don't have an alternative working pair.

As for just belling out the lines, no idea how many hours of work that's going to be, but it just adds to the down time for the home user - no phone or internet.

at least with the current NBN there's little to no down time on changing over.

 

[sptrawler]

one of the bosses lives over in Manly. He's lucky to get 3.5Mbs. We fault his line to Telstra on a monthly basis. So far they've been unwilling / unable to fix the issue. he needs a new copper pair, but seems none is available. I would argue that a lot of houses don't have an alternative working pair.
.

That would be a perfect example of where a fibre cable would be installed, as the copper sounds unservicable.

 

[sydboy007]

That would be a perfect example of where a fibre cable would be installed, as the copper sounds unservicable.

What is the process for this to occur with the Liberal FTTN? So far i can't see any details for how the copper replacement will work in practice. I think you'll agree with my cynicism that what the donkey says and what the donkey does in politics is quite often very different. Black and white policy document would be a nice clarification to this issue.

Are nodes installed, then copper tested and either replaced with another pair or fiber?

How long does the testing process take? It will cause an outage for every service tested. Will there be a special process for someone with a medical priority line? Hate to think what could happen if someone's phone is off the air for 30 minutes and they needed to call an ambulance. What happens if they take a large number of services off line to do the testing in bulk so as to make the overall process faster??

What happens if the majority of copper for a node needs to be replaced? Would it have been more sensible to have then done GPON from the exchange rather than running an active node that only deals with fiber?

Since no tender for nodes has gone out, we don't even know how many fiber connections a node could support. I can see the situation occurring where a lot of copper is replaced, and some poor sod who'd like fiber style speeds can't get it because there's no free ports at the node.

I still don't understand why people are so against the Labor NBN when prices of plans are the same as current ADSL, and most people are getting around a doubling (based on average ADSL speeds of around 5-6Mbs) for the same price. Throw in the fact everyone can now get naked internet access and kill off the land line rental if they choose (remember anyone outside a major town or capital city is forced by Telstra to have an active phone service), and I'd expect a lot of people to be saving money.

The added benefit of the current NBN is that those going on the top 2 to 3 tiers - ie the business / first class passengers - are subsidising the low speed users, which seems fair since they are gaining the biggest benefits in terms of speed increase.

In every area the NBN is available the high tier speeds are the most popular plans, so it does seem to indicate there's a desire to have the bandwidth available so that everyone in the household can do their interweby stuff at reasonably fast speeds all at the same time. You don't have to need applications that require 100Mbs speeds, not when 3 or 4 people could all be doing their own thing requiring just 20 Mbs each.

I have that issue in my house where if my 2 house mates are streaming their thai tv shows at the same time then web browsing gets quite slow. If I could get the NBN now I'd be happy to try a 25Mbs plan for an extra $5 and if still find things a bit slow pay $15 a month extra for a 50Mbs plan.

So I might get option the 25Mbs option from the Liberals by Dec 31 2016, and might get the 50Mbs option by Dec 31 2019, but considering that in the last 6 years I've gone from 512 Kbs to 1.5mbs to around 12Mbs (lower today with all the rain) I can see that kind of growth in speed continuing.