Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NAB - National Australia Bank

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Re: NAB?

I would be very interested to see when any of the chart guys would consider NAB a buy. So please let me know. I'm very keen to see how NAB has to trade until a chart trader gets a buy signal.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: NAB?

Again I would say it depends on what you as a charter use to determine the signals.

I am trying to keep my decision process simple using linear regression line and MMA only. For me the NAB would become attractive when
a) long MMA (21 wks) will run nicely in steady incline below the short MMA (13 wks) while short MMA had not crossed it on downwards for substantial period of time (say 4-5 months)
AND
b) price closes in buy/hold zone below linear regression line but above indicator created by linear regression line minus 5%
AND
c) stock closed higher than last week
AND
d) volume increased
AND
e) quick readup on latest companys announcements and news not uncovering anything out of ordinary

Then I will consider it a BUY for myself.

Remark - as you can see my trading is based on a long term system where I only consider weekly price movements. May not be everybodys cup of tea;)

I hope its understandable - no rocket science but easier to see on chart than describe in writting.
 
Re: NAB?

jkool,

much appreciated! I'm not going to judge your system. As you said, everybody has his own ideas. It's very interesting to read about them and I'm sure others are interested to hear about different ideas and strategies.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: NAB?

NAB trading strongly today, as is most of the banking sector.
Up over 1% since I bought on Thursday.

I thought the stock was very cheap at $26.50 (bound for a rally as is most of the banking sector, strong supports at that price level), but you guys don't seem to be too optimistic.

I'm only a newbie (been following the market for a long time, but this is my first trade), should I take the profit and run or hold?
(At the moment my instinct is hold, but after some remarks by ppl Im not so sure)

HELP ???
 
Re: NAB?

NAB trading strongly today, as is most of the banking sector.
Up over 1% since I bought on Thursday.

I thought the stock was very cheap at $26.50 (bound for a rally as is most of the banking sector, strong supports at that price level), but you guys don't seem to be too optimistic.

I'm only a newbie (been following the market for a long time, but this is my first trade), should I take the profit and run or hold?
(At the moment my instinct is hold, but after some remarks by ppl Im not so sure)

HELP ???
Click to expand...

It's a tough call Neo... are you in NAB short term or for the long haul?

If you are in for the long haul then I think you got in at a good price. If you are a short term trader then take profits whenever you think. As long as you are in front you are okay! ;)

My personal view is that NAB has a little further south to go yet before it bottoms. But hey, I could be wrong!

Good luck!
 
Re: NAB?

Joe,

I agreed with you that NAB may still heading south for a short period of time before bounce back.
 
Re: NAB?

Thanks Guys,

Appreciate your input...

I am in it for the short term at the moment, my strategy only involves support and resistance lines, been doing OK with paper trading tests of it.

Seemed like good value at the time, currently looking for a possible break above the 10 day moving average, should be able to tell if it was a good call or not by the end of the week.
 
Re: NAB?

By looking at my chart for NAB tonight, I would suggest NAB is a very close watch for a buy now (for a relatively short term buy at least).

The RSI is pulling up across the 30 line and crossing the 14 day MA as well. The 7 day price MA is turning up, and the last 3 days' lows have all been higher than the previous day's.

I think if I was really considering buying this stock I might be aggressive and buy now, or perhaps be a bit safer and wait and see for another day or so to see if it continues heading up.

However, this is just my inexpert observation - certainly not a recommendation or advice!

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: NAB?

I was thinking about writing some $26.50 Nab puts...I would be happy to buy at that price, if I got exercised then I would get a nice discount.
 
Re: NAB?

Tanks for your Great insights GreatPig! (pun not intentional ;D)

I think that is one of my problems so far.
I am still learning how to use the charting techniques and don't put enough emphasis on them.

Might have to hit the books again, and put some of the principles in practice. Which indicators do you, the more seasoned traders find most useful?
 
Re: NAB?

GreatPig,

If you see a "very short term buy" then what would you consider a target for NAB in the short term? You would have to make a $2 for a decent return, but I'm not too sure that you can get that on the "very short term".

Sure, you can always get NAB for a 50 cent run but is it worthwhile?

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: NAB?

Sure, you can always get NAB for a 50 cent run but is it worthwhile?
Click to expand...
That depends on the time frame it takes to get it.

Let's look at some figures:

Current price according to Yahoo = $26.94
Price after $0.50 gain = $27.44

Say you purchased 1000 shares with 0.3% commission (as per the ASX game rules, although in reality you could get more like 0.1%):

Shares bought = $26,940
Buy commission = $80.82

Shares sold = $27,440
Sale commission = $82.32

Profit = $336.86 (before tax)

or 1.25% return on investment.

Converting that to annual returns based on some times to achieve that 50c gain gives:

1 day = 456.4% pa
1 week = 65.02% pa
1 month = 15% pa

So I think if a 50 cent gain could be achieved in less than a month, the ROI would be reasonable. Any less time would obviously be even better. More so again if margin lending were applied.

Now, I don't have the figure for this morning's opening price, but yesterday's close was $26.80 so it's risen by 14 cents today (in fact 15 cents now that I refresh the quote). I can see it possibly achieving a 50 cent gain in a week if this rise continues, even more so in a month.

Of course this could just be a small rally before the price starts falling again, but that is always a risk with any trade. I think the chances on this one are reasonable though.

So let's say there's a buy of 1000 shares at $26.94 and see how long it takes to reach $27.44, if it manages to at all. Of course I would then only sell at that point if the rise looked like conking out.

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: NAB?

Well, if we assume that one can buy 1000 shares then yes. I was of course looking at a more reasonable amount of money to spend. I somehow don't think that most members here have $30K to spend.

While the % may be the same, the commission would eat away most of your gains.

Not to mention interest on any margin lending you might need to pay for 1000 NAB shares. As you mentioned correctly.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: NAB?

Point taken stefan,

I only ended up buying 280 shares for about at $26.50 per share. Today was 25c up to $27.05,
so $154 profit - $40 for brokerage (buy and sell)
$114 net profit in 3 days, a 1.54% net profit in 3 days of trading, or 184% per annum if I keep going this way.

I'm quite satisfied so far as it is my very first trade, now I have to decide when to take profit.

If it drops bellow $27 I will sell (like a stop-loss).

Does anyone have a more concrete goal for the stock?

Also many of you say that there are better opportunities in the market, would you be able to suggest any, Im still learning so any help would be great.

Thanks for all your feedback everyone! :)
 
Re: NAB?

Neo,

Does anyone have a more concrete goal for the stock?
Click to expand...
Please be aware that no one here can offer you financial advice. All comments are just that - general comments.

Since you've actually bought this stock and are looking for ideas on when to sell, I think most people will be wary of offering anything too specific so that it can't be construed as being financial advice. You have to make your own decisions based on your own research and study.

In my example I am just talking hypothetically. I don't own the stock and don't plan to buy it at this point in time. I could very well be totally wrong and the price could take a dive again at any moment.

You've done well so far, so just keep a close eye on the price and sell when you think is best.

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: NAB?

Sorry GP,

Didn't mean to be taken like I was asking for financial advice (new to the forum not sure of what is appropriate).

Sorry everyone!
 
Re: NAB?

Neo,

Generally you will (or should) find it difficult to get specific information regarding the movement of a stock or recommendations to buy/sell. This is a forum where we can talk, speculate and dream about shares and possible profits.

Of course one can always ask for the opinion of others but you shouldn't expect to see something like: Buy NAB at 26.85 with a short term target of 27.90. Stop loss 26.70. Hold longer term for a target of 30+.

You will find these kind of things in stock trading rooms where people try to profit from each other by recommending stocks they just bought.

However, I can't see a problem discussing different views of a stock. So if ask me about NAB, I can give you my opinion. If however you ask for a better stock than NAB to buy, then I can't help you. If I knew it, then I'd be living a different life...  ;D

Well done with NAB! Congratulations on a $100+ profit.

Happy trading

Stefan
 
Re: NAB?

NAB has been heading north for the last 2 days...I think it going up for a short period of time before trace back to $26.48 (new support line).
 
Re: NAB?

Well, the market has just turned sour today. Everything going backwards. (Almost everything...)

This will be real test for NAB to find its bottom here.

Happy trading

Stefan
 

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