Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

NAB - National Australia Bank

Possible break through of $23 at open.
I've bought too many already, so I'll try to ignore the price action for the time being.
Wondering how long that $1 divvy can be sustained? Thoughts on if we will see it reduced for Half year? Will the RC be complete by then? (Haven't heard much of it, as of recent)
Will the labor franking bill have that much impact (Will it be passed - me thinks no, even though a resounding labour victory is eminent.

The more the price goes down, the more questions I will ask haha

@mcgrath111 If I could take the liberty to show you my chart of NAB. I'm not questioning why you initially purchased NAB & I'm not commenting whether further purchases are good or bad. I just want you to see it from my perspective.

Yellow Ribbon
Look at the little yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart.

What does that yellow ribbon mean
That's a ROC indicator (ROC = Rate Of Change) a momentum indicator. Each time the yellow ribbon activates it means the momentum is dropping. It means the ROC of the last 10 weeks is lower than 0%.

In a nutshell
Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)

Ribbon Length
The length of the ribbon indicates the length of time the momentum continues to drop. The chart is a sea of yellow & this may indicate my caution - at least it will give you my take on NAB.

Why is my ROC ribbon yellow
If a traffic light turns yellow we prepare to stop. If I own the share my strategy turns on a searchlight to highlight the fact.

I'm a wimp
In my 'Dump it here thread' I've spoken about the virtues of being a wimp. I'm first to admit I'm a Wimp.

NAB Capture.JPG


Skate.
 
@mcgrath111 If I could take the liberty to show you my chart of NAB. I'm not questioning why you initially purchased NAB & I'm not commenting whether further purchases are good or bad. I just want you to see it from my perspective.

Yellow Ribbon
Look at the little yellow ribbon at the bottom of the chart.

What does that yellow ribbon mean
That's a ROC indicator (ROC = Rate Of Change) a momentum indicator. Each time the yellow ribbon activates it means the momentum is dropping. It means the ROC of the last 10 weeks is lower than 0%.

In a nutshell
Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)

Ribbon Length
The length of the ribbon indicates the length of time the momentum continues to drop. The chart is a sea of yellow & this may indicate my caution - at least it will give you my take on NAB.

Why is my ROC ribbon yellow
If a traffic light turns yellow we prepare to stop. If I own the share my strategy turns on a searchlight to highlight the fact.

I'm a wimp
In my 'Dump it here thread' I've spoken about the virtues of being a wimp. I'm first to admit I'm a Wimp.

View attachment 90865

Skate.
Interesting, i've never used anything like that myself.

I'm largely going off:
1) Div (Likely to fall in short to mid term)
2) Negative sentiment around banks. I also feel that the RC is a charade.
3) Bounce in short term, think that selling is a little over done. (Dow futures up as I speak)...but if it turns to ****, I'll just hold / ignore for the next 5 lol
 
In a nutshell
Other investors/traders don't share your view. (more sellers than buyers)

Here's a chart of the returns of NAB (dividends included) if you only invest in NAB when other investors share your view (10w ROC > 0).

Screenshot_2018-12-21_19-10-12.png


Not all that great, compared to if you had just held onto NAB and reinvested the dividends...

Screenshot_2018-12-21_19-10-34.png
 
So into no man's land for Mr. Fibonacci. One observance is last week having the highest weekly volume in over five years. Monday intraday low is a pickup for moi and no point in calling a low because smart ass Mr. Market (who is that guy anyway) likes to out muscle these ideas.

Untitled.png
 
IMO calling the low point on NAB or any of the banks, can't be done untill the outcome of the RC is announced.
Then we will know if the low point has passed or is yet to come. IMO
 
NAB didn't get the 11% run it should've got today :D

Still, happy to tip it for a run next year - even after a short term drop...
 
I almost bought some more on Friday. I wish I had now. I think the Chairman and CEO should resign in view of the scathing comments Hayne specifically made regarding Henry and Thorburn.
 
Andrew in the news again

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ge_busnews_am&instance=2019-02-06--19-35--UTC

Andrew Thorburn's former chief of staff allegedly rorted $500k for a holiday
By Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker and Sarah Danckert
February 6, 2019 — 11.49pm

The former chief of staff of embattled National Australia Bank boss Andrew Thorburn allegedly rorted more than $500,000 from the NAB to fund an extravagant overseas family holiday that included first class travel and luxury resorts.

The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have confirmed that police are investigating whether shoddy oversight inside Mr Thorburn's office enabled and emboldened his former chief of staff, Rosemary Rogers, and a corporate event contractor to pull off a suspected multi-million dollar fraud.

Ms Rogers' overseas jaunt, which included multiple destinations and six other close family members, is the most egregious transaction being probed by NSW detectives, according to NAB sources.

Two NAB insiders have said that they both had concerns about a culture of largesse and extravagant spending that became normalised inside Mr Thorburn’s office and which allegedly centred around Ms Rogers and contractor, the Human Group.

The insiders described several offsite strategy meetings for NAB executives at luxury resorts in the Wolgan Valley, where guests arrived via helicopter, and on Kangaroo Island in South Australia. One NAB insider alleged that Ms Rogers kept a “slush fund” from which she gave staff benefits, including expensive gifts.

The police suspect that Ms Rogers and the Human Group devised a system in which they allegedly issued inflated invoices to the NAB to collect kickbacks and cover certain private expenses, including Ms Rogers' $500,000 overseas holiday.

The revelations about Ms Rogers comes as the NAB chief fights to retain his job after strong criticism on Monday from former High Court justice Kenneth Hayne in his banking royal commission findings.

Commissioner Hayne also questioned whether NAB chairman Ken Henry and Mr Thorburn had really grasped the gravity of the bank's misconduct.

Both Mr Thorburn and Mr Henry have vowed to improve NAB's culture, despite expressing disappointment with Commissioner Hayne's personal criticism.

On Tuesday night, Mr Thorburn was blunt about his future, saying he could not guarantee he would still be in his job on Friday. An emergency board meeting was held on Tuesday to discuss his fate and further discussions are being held this week, according to bank sources.

The Age and Herald have confirmed that NAB is aware of the police interest in Ms Rogers' overseas trip. A NAB spokesman said on Wednesday that the bank continued to co-operate with police on an inquiry which was instigated by a whistleblower report.

"If the alleged fraud is proven, it represents a most serious breach of trust by a former employee," the spokesman said.

NAB sources said there is also concern inside the bank that Mr Thorburn will be called to give evidence in any trial involving Ms Rogers, which could lead to him being examined about the fraud scandal that has enveloped his former staffer.

While there is no evidence that Mr Thorburn knew that Ms Rogers was involved in the criminal conspiracy, two NAB insiders with direct knowledge of her activities say she exploited a major corporate governance failure inside Mr Thornburn’s office.

In December, The Age revealed how Mr Thorburn took a luxury Fiji holiday and a Thermomix arranged by Ms Rogers and the Human Group.

While Mr Thorburn paid several thousands dollars towards the trip, the full cost of it and the Thermomix was ultimately passed on to NAB shareholders via inflated invoices issued by the Human Group.

Sources familiar with the case say the Human Group is suspected of issuing invoices to the NAB to make the bank cover the costs of Mr Thorburn's trip to a resort where the rooms cost between $6000 and $45,000 per night, and the Thermomix worth about $2000.

The contractor also allegedly issued inflated invoices to cover Ms Rogers $500,000 family holiday.

Dr Henry was also indirectly caught up in the scandal after NAB board documents tendered to the royal commission showed he had been quizzed at a board meeting over the first-class tickets he received that were booked by Ms Rogers. There was no allegation of wrongdoing against the former Treasury secretary.

NAB has previously disclosed a small number of "inadvertent" breaches of the company's policies by Mr Thorburn in relation to Ms Rogers activities. But it also said he had been cleared of wrongdoing by the bank's board, which according to October's board minutes is of the belief the mis-appropriation of funds had begun occurring years before Mr Thorburn's appointment as CEO.

The board cut Mr Thorburn's remuneration by 25 per cent last year in recognition of the lack of financial controls in his office and the bank's poor 2018 performance.

There is no suggestion that Mr Thorburn is involved in the alleged criminal conduct and in April he expressed anger and disappointment at the alleged corruption of his former chief of staff and the Human Group.

NAB's conflict of interest policy which was tendered to the royal commission says: "You must exercise care in the giving and receiving of business related benefits, gifts or entertainment to/from potential and existing customers and product providers and obtain approval from your people leader above specified threshold values."

The policy adds: "You are responsible for identifying personal or business circumstances that may give rise to potential, actual or perceived Conflicts of Interest and for recording those details in the relevant Conflicts of Interest Register."

The Human Group's NSW offices were raided by NSW detectives in April 2018 for allegedly paying secret commissions to Ms Rogers in return for her help directing it millions of dollars of contracts from NAB.

It was via these inquiries that fraud taskforce detectives have also uncovered the Human Group's role in arranging a Fiji trip to the private island resort of Laucala and the kitchen appliance for Mr Thorburn.

The police probe was triggered in late 2017, after NAB received a whistleblower complaint and notified authorities. Victoria Police declined to comment.

At the time of the police raids in April, it was also revealed that Ms Rogers, a long time NAB employee and chief-of-staff to Mr Thorburn since 2014, had left the bank and was being investigated.

When the raids occurred, Mr Thorburn told staff: “If these allegations are proved to be true it is a very serious breach of trust and banking is based on trust. And I, like you, are very proud of our company and what banking stands for and these sort of allegations really hurt our reputation.”

Ms Rogers held the position of chief-of-staff for nine years, including under former chief executive Cameron Clyne, before her resignation in December last year.

Police raided her Williamstown house in December. The Age sought Ms Rogers for comment.
 
There will be a few fall on their sword, they took the big bucks, they should wear it.
With big $, comes big risk.
I find Henry's fall from grace interesting, he was seen as a pillar of society and a man of principles, when he conducted the tax review.
Now, apparently, his character is called into question.
It all shows why politicians set up committee's, they aren't that stupid, or else their public servants give them a heads up.lol
 
NAB CEO Andrew Thorburn has resigned and chairman Ken Henry will leave the bank, following damning criticism from the banking royal commission.

ABC
 
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