MYR - Myer Holdings

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Today's Pick:
started buying at $1.88; Stop if it closes below $1.87; looking at overhead gap as possible target

 

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Amended chart: Missed two more gaps. First target reduced to $2.01, but still on track and in profit.



PS: Trailing Stop raised to Close Below $1.89

 

[Wysiwyg]

MYR near 2012 low of $1.525 with a close today of $1.535. Removed from the ASX100. Dimensional Fund Advisors stake now at 5%. DFA headquartered in Texas, U.S.A.

 

[The Falcon]

DFA are Fama/French smart Beta yeah?

 

[DeepState]

DFA are Fama/French smart Beta yeah?

Fama and French are on payroll. So is Novy-Marx. So are LTCM alumni, Scholes and Merton. Owned by Booth, of Chicago-Booth.

What is your interest in Smart Beta?

 

[Miner]

MYR near 2012 low of $1.525 with a close today of $1.535. Removed from the ASX100. Dimensional Fund Advisors stake now at 5%. DFA headquartered in Texas, U.S.A.

Need some education Wysiwyg et al

Does removal from ASX 100 means the financial investment is likely not to buy more of MYR and rather fills up with other shares ? So lesser liquidity and interest to dive the share price further south ?
I was hoping MYR to turnaround but I am so wrong here. With massive Christmas buying I see in shops if MYR does not rise now in January it will be finish.

Regards

 

[The Falcon]

Hi RY, I'm just a punter who has read some modern portfolio theory stuff, I remember I came across DFA and the Fama/French connection from that. Personally I'm about 50% weight to index US/AU, Vanguard US broad market and ASX300, so an ever so slight nod to small cap tilt (as opposed to S&P 500 /ASX 200) and the rest direct equities. Some of my recent digging around suggests a lot of the smart beta type rules based ETFs might not be so smart given high turnover during frequent rebalancing. Obviously I'll defer to your experience on this and appreciate any comments.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Sorry Miner, I have no experience in that area. I'm interested in the turn around story whenever it appears.

 

[DeepState]

Need some education Wysiwyg et al

Does removal from ASX 100 means the financial investment is likely not to buy more of MYR and rather fills up with other shares ? So lesser liquidity and interest to dive the share price further south ?
I was hoping MYR to turnaround but I am so wrong here. With massive Christmas buying I see in shops if MYR does not rise now in January it will be finish.

Regards

This is a weird one. Coming out of the ASX 100 in of itself is a negative to the extent that portfolios benchmarked against it will have a desire to sell MYR. However, this also means that the stock moves into the ASX Small Ords (comprising the 101st to 300th stock in the ASX 300 index). That actually has a lot of money following it. As a result, at the margin, there is actually an increase in index related demand for MYR.

This says nothing else about MYR in terms of a fundamental or technical view.

 

[DeepState]

Hi RY, I'm just a punter who has read some modern portfolio theory stuff, I remember I came across DFA and the Fama/French connection from that. Personally I'm about 50% weight to index US/AU, Vanguard US broad market and ASX300, so an ever so slight nod to small cap tilt (as opposed to S&P 500 /ASX 200) and the rest direct equities. Some of my recent digging around suggests a lot of the smart beta type rules based ETFs might not be so smart given high turnover during frequent rebalancing. Obviously I'll defer to your experience on this and appreciate any comments.

I reckon this is an interesting field. Perhaps we should move it off the MYR thread. I'll set something up. Hope to see you there.

 

[skyQuake]

This is a weird one. Coming out of the ASX 100 in of itself is a negative to the extent that portfolios benchmarked against it will have a desire to sell MYR. However, this also means that the stock moves into the ASX Small Ords (comprising the 101st to 300th stock in the ASX 300 index). That actually has a lot of money following it. As a result, at the margin, there is actually an increase in index related demand for MYR.

This says nothing else about MYR in terms of a fundamental or technical view.

+1

Not allowed to post stats but if you can be bothered looking, stocks going into 100 underperform, stocks coming out outperform. Mid/Small cap mandated managers swing a bigger line than 100s ETFs/ Large cap only managers (if there is such a thing)

 

[brty]

SQ,

"Not allowed to post stats"

That in itself states that /your organisation must have some pretty interesting proprietry stats, and obviously do a great deal of statistical work to find any edges.

I do love these snippets so thanks.

 

[daz1982]

Shares now sitting @ 1.380.

Seem like a good buy for anyone?

 

[pixel]

Shares now sitting @ 1.380.

Seem like a good buy for anyone?

G'Day Daz,
welcome to ASF. In your intro, you say you have some cash to burn and want to learn about shares.
Well, I hope your aim is to increase your cash position. Otherwise I'm happy to give you my account number :

wrt MYR now trading at $1.38: On what analysis/ valuation do you base the assumption "good buy"?
A couple of months ago, it traded around $1.75, and I bought a few because it seemed to come off a support/ consolidation zone, and I saw a good chance that at least one of the gaps above might be closed. At $1.90, the advance stalled and I got off again.



Over subsequent weeks, the slide continued, and a falling trend became apparent. After Dec 4th, the rate of decline became even steeper - in line with the overall market decline. That brings us to the tiny upswing of the last two days. Is that enough to make MYR a buy? Not sure - because today was dual Option Expiry Day, which is usually surrounded by deception, one-day countertrends, and higher volume.

As you see, I'm coming from a Technical background, basing my analysis on what I see in charts. If you compare the above chart with EHL's situation 4 weeks ago, you may notice a potential parallel. I posted EHL a little earlier in this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29112&p=853915&viewfull=1#post853915

 

[daz1982]

Hi Pixel,

Yes I'm here to make some $$$ we are such a greedy bunch I also enjoy analysis (I might not be very good at it though) and want to learn from people like yourself

Regarding Myer - going by history I believe it is at its low point and will get a boost in Jan/Feb 2015, looking back on 5 years history in Nov/Dev share price seem to drop, then xmas sales and stocktake come through and in Jan/Feb stocks generally go back up - this is the outcome I will be looking for and to sell in Jan-Feb.

Overall this year xmas is later so there is a later trading shift which is currently making sales look poor however they may still come through. Due to this Myer I believe is currently cutting hours in stores to hit a profit number (hmm how about this Wonderful campaign - I think they are going to short deliver especially when they are cutting hours). Potential take over?

Bernie may leave could be a positive huh

Online I believe is a good opportunity for Myer they need to get their act together on this. On the other hand online is a threat especially when it is so easy for shoppers to save $$ and buy online from US sites etc.

So overall quite risky, but I'll have a crack

 

[daz1982]

In terms of stripping costs there is opportunity, cut HO staff, re-negotiate lease deals etc

Consumers should be spending more on themselves they have low mortgage rates, cheap petrol

Sephora may be a risk but I need to do some research

 

[notting]

What was so good about Bernie Brookes exactly? MYR down 10% or the CFO for that matter!

 

[notting]

Hasn't really fallen below the price of the dividend it just payed, which was significant in this world of low interest rates and yield fad.
That's a positive.

 

[joeno]

What do you guys think, is Myers heading to its grave? Hard to believe one of Australia's most recognizable brands is down so much... yet suppose with the online shopping boom there is not really any place for a company like myers anymore.

 

[Triathlete]

What do you guys think, is Myers heading to its grave? Hard to believe one of Australia's most recognizable brands is down so much... yet suppose with the online shopping boom there is not really any place for a company like myers anymore.

I do not know if it going to the grave but having a look at the technical's at the present I would not be putting any money into it as it is still in a downtrend so price could still move lower from here.

(I do not follow the stock just a quick view on the charts)

A fundamental view from www.lincolnindicators.com.au is below.

MYR is in a Strong Financial Health position, but fails our management assessment criteria. Thus the company cannot be considered a Star Growth Stock. Additionally, the company's dividend sustainability is in question. As such MYR cannot be considered a Star Income Stock.

Myer has consistently reported volatile earnings growth and this will most likely continue with the poor consumer sentiment in retail remaining. The department store model continues to be challenging as retail evolves. MYR potentially would benefit from continued expansion and improvements through their online store and improved consumer spending.