MYR - Myer Holdings

[skyQuake]

$4~$4.20 range according to the vines
Lower end of the range consistent with my thoughts that Instos would stay out of the bookbuild, and buy on market (thus underpaying)

 

[Putty7]

Hi Skyquake, I bought into 50k worth through an offer from etrade, hoping now I won't get all of it but it did close a lot earlier than the time allocated which is a good sign as there was interest there.

My instincts at the time was the Brand name would see it through with a lot of mum and dad investors jumping out of Telstra and maybe looking to get back into something familiar, maybe interest from Superfunds etc. diversifying out from David Jones.

I am concerned about the amount of shares the vendors have and would not be surprised to see them squash any stag as I think they have indicated their willingness to sell, any thoughts on this would be appreciated as I am still a novice and this is the first IPO I have looked at (and maybe the last).

 

[trading_rookie]

With the market sliding this week, it'll be interesting to see what the issue price will be. If the institutions get cold feet, it might make MYR's retail offer come in closer to the better value end of the range.

Considering the underwriters of this prospectus were pushing Myer management to get the prospectus out sooner rather than later to avoid what we're seeing now, I wonder if Brookes and co. will now get their wanted price of high 4's/low 5's. Might be a case of should have listened to your underwriters rather than being smug and thinking the recovery will still be up by Christmas.

I agree with most of the sentiment on this thread - ride the initial hype and then get out...but then I couldn't be arsed filling in the paper work and chucked the prospectus (had them mail me a hard copy) in the drawer as a souvenir ;-)

An interesting fact - according to an AFR article (more than a week old), it reported that the Myer chairman plans to hold 100% of his stock options, the CEO 90%, while the rest of Myer management is holding 83%, so I guess the Myer executive team is confident of a good listing. Time will tell.

 

[oldblue]

According to The Business Spectator it looks like the price will be $4-10.

Vendors apparently havn't yet decided how many to sell!.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20091029-XA47A?OpenDocument&src=tnb

 

[skyQuake]

Hi Skyquake, I bought into 50k worth through an offer from etrade, hoping now I won't get all of it but it did close a lot earlier than the time allocated which is a good sign as there was interest there.

My instincts at the time was the Brand name would see it through with a lot of mum and dad investors jumping out of Telstra and maybe looking to get back into something familiar, maybe interest from Superfunds etc. diversifying out from David Jones.

I am concerned about the amount of shares the vendors have and would not be surprised to see them squash any stag as I think they have indicated their willingness to sell, any thoughts on this would be appreciated as I am still a novice and this is the first IPO I have looked at (and maybe the last).

Doubt that you'll get your full $50k worth, if every silver member applies, their min allocation will see the retail offer oversubscribed.

Good news for you is that its at the lower end of the spectrum. Better news for you is today's selloff will see instos a bit shy and maybe pulling some bids. Its already indicative at $4~4.20 which is imo, a fair price. You should be able to stag a bit at $4.50ish?

Anyways, the instos aren't stupid. If they apply for lots through the IPO, they'll drive up the price from $3.90 to $4.90.
If the buy on market they will probably move the price up 10c at worst. (and able to stay out and watch it fall before buying if its priced at the high end of the range).

Seems decent to me at these price levels (for now at least)

Good luck

Disclosure: Forgot to apply for some lol

 

[Putty7]

Thanks for the feedback, have been a bit concerned as the capital could have been allocated to better opportunities and the feedback through the forum has been less than appealing with regards to Myer, the trouble with being a very little fish in a very large sea full of predators is reading the play well enough to know where to swim without getting eaten up . The SP at the lower end is a good sign no doubt, was probably my major concern, as long as there is some room to move it leaves an exit open if needed.

 

[skyQuake]

Lets see if theres fund interest today, trading at $3.90 at present in a thin range.
I would assume heavy resistance at $4.10 though

 

[Wysiwyg]

Just watching large trades being executed and wondering is this what investors do? I mean those selling must be at a loss.

 

[Nyden]

Some stag trade Glad my prospectus went into the bin. Yes, it does seem quite odd Wysiwyg, but I guess many retail investors were only looking for the quick gains ... little did they know that they weren't all too clever after all, as everyone else was as well

16 Million units for sale, 3 million units looking to be bought. Doesn't take a genius to know that the punters just aren't interested. Although, it may be a case of lack of awareness. How many folk are even aware that it's listed yet?

 

[Judd]

Yep, 64M units volume so far, Sells of 400k here, 250k there buys of 150k that way. Yep been a real success, down 6% in a market that is down 1.9%

All that is needed is for the head floor walker to come out and say what a grand day it has been [for him and his colleagues but not for the punter.]

Stayed well away from this as it was always about private equity transferring your money into their wallet.

 

[ROE]

I buy when it get to $2 ..... that when it trades a discount to its intrinsic value.

Lucky it didnt get hammer harder ....

 

[fureien]

yeh i might pick some up around the $2 mark, no matter how bad it is, at that range its trading at a discount.

And christmas is coming up, we saw some nice rises in the retail sector during the stimulus period around easter. Christmas is supposed to be like several times bigger in turnover. Christmas sales start this month too and momentum picks up as early as mid november.

So we should see most people exit by end of november and price recover around december at least. The thing is though, from what ive seen turnover is large during christmas, but profits are small as. Id expect this year to be worse with the gfc where they'll be marking down alot of stuff even more and have more stock to clear during boxing day.

Btw ive worked for myer the past 2 years thats what im basing this on.

 

[kenny]

I vaguely recall someone at the Eureka report thought $2.90 was reasonable value so $2.00 would be a treat.

I wonder how many wannabe stags still to bail?

Cheers,

Kenny

 

[el_caro]

I vaguely recall someone at the Eureka report thought $2.90 was reasonable value so $2.00 would be a treat.

I wonder how many wannabe stags still to bail?

Cheers,

Kenny

$2.00 is too pessimistic. I think the $2.90 mark would be a good point to buy in unless the US goes into double dip when the US commercial property market collapses in the year ahead.

 

[Agentm]

$2.00 is too pessimistic. I think the $2.90 mark would be a good point to buy in unless the US goes into double dip when the US commercial property market collapses in the year ahead.

the market values them at 2.2 billion

i heard they will raise capital and propose a takeover of coles in the next few days

may be an old rumor?

 

[kenny]

If they announce a capital raising for any reason in the first week of listing, then the $2 mark will be achievable I reckon

Of course then we would need to consider whether $2 is appropriate given the circumstances....

Cheers

Kenny

 

[Drivermann]

Myer are they worth holding

Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again

 

[Sean K]

Re: Myer are they worth holding

Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again

Bad timing Drivermann.

Could have been CBA or WOW some years ago and you would be a very happy first time investor.

No one here can give you investment advice, so you need to make your own decision.

Personally, I thought the Myer IPO was a dogs breakfast (promoting your stock with a half nude woman is not cool) and I would not have gone anywhere near it. If I had have for a short term stag gain, I would have cut and run very quickly and saved my cash.



Good luck.

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: Myer are they worth holding

Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again

Drivermann,

Nobody here is legally allowed to advise you to buy, sell or hold any stock. Only licensed financial advisers can provide members of the public with that kind of specific financial advice.

 

[Drivermann]

Wasn't looking for financial advise. Just wondering if anybody bought shares through the IPO and what have others done with their parcel of shares