Myer IPO

[nunthewiser]

There might be a bit of a stag in it, but as an investment?



If the PE owners really thought Myer was a decent investment, why are they so keen to flog it off after just buying it?

yep with the lack of decent floats in the last year or so , yes i would be expecting a nice stag opening ..........could be wrong

re why ...... that was my initial thought also ... perhaps they figured that there sales have been pumped of late with the help of the stimulas packages ? perhaps they have the opinion that perhaps australia hasnt seen the worst of the recession as yet ? perhaps the owners need a slush fund and a payrise ?

personally dont know "why " they would float it but DO think it will provide many a decent trade opportunity until the novelty wears off .....

and yes jennifer hawkins gets my vote also in fact she should be the prime minister

 

[jonojpsg]

IMO the proposed price tag of $2.5b is overvaluing it. Their after tax profit this year was what $109m, giving them a PE of 24ish. Yes they have improved their profits significantly over the last two years, but that wouldn't have been difficult given the state Myer was in when they took it over. IMO they will find it much more difficult to make double digit gains yoy from here on in.

In that case, a PE of 24+ is too high (DJS is 18 and JBH is 21). Just my though.

Oh, and if you want to know why they're selling it, to make money!! Note the IPO price tag includes debt which is how they bought Myer in the first place. So they've used other peoples money to buy a badly run company, turned it around, and now want to sell it, AND the debt they took on, at a nice FAT profit. Sounds like a good deal to me

 

[ixalus]

Thinking of selling LYC and RMS at a loss ($1k) to get into this IPO. Milk it to hopefully cover losses and make a decent gain as well, then drop it and move on. Maybe interest bearing deposits or something lol. Any thoughts on how a retail giant will perform?

It was logical for me to look into DJS and it's performance throughout the decade. Seems to have been floated at approx. $2 back in the day. Considering inflation maybe Myers will float at $3-5? Any thoughts? Am I approaching this correctly?

 

[Wysiwyg]

It was logical for me to look into DJS and it's performance throughout the decade. Seems to have been floated at approx. $2 back in the day. Considering inflation maybe Myers will float at $3-5? Any thoughts? Am I approaching this correctly?

I notice the s.p. is near the all time high again (in just a few short months )..... financial crisis? what financial crisis????. Sorry to all who sold at a loss and missed the re-entry. I mean that in a ...the share market sux way.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

I'm bit surprised people can be swept up to IPO so easily.........

There's about 100 shares that are a better buy than Myer or CarSales..........

It's not like your getting in on the ground floor........it's an established business which got some good management for a change......not exactly a growth company, not exactly an asset play

I wonder how long the good staff will stick around once they cash in their options

As for it mattering what price the shares are at???????? Gees, how quickly we come from the bottom of a 'bear market'.............it was only 6 months ago, and people have already lost their bearing again!!!

 

[el_caro]

I have just pre registered for the Myer IPO but doubt if I will apply. The consortium paid $1.2Bn for the assets in 2006 and now want an estimated $2.6bn in the IPO. I suspect the earnings figures may be a bit rubbery to achieve a higher P/E Ratio to justify a higher IPO share price.
My feeling at the moment is that it will be possible next year to purchase the shares below the IPO price. There may be a Stag profit in the first couple of days but this is early days in the so called recovery phase and I think the big winner out of this is the investment consortium who pocket over $1bn for holding the assets for 3 years.

 

[el_caro]

As for it mattering what price the shares are at???????? Gees, how quickly we come from the bottom of a 'bear market'.............it was only 6 months ago, and people have already lost their bearing again!!!

Spot on Rainmaker. But this highlights a reason why there may be a quid in this IPO for short term players. There is an enormous amount of cash sitting around waiting to enter the sharemarket. Investors have to put it somewhere and cash is never a long term option for serious investors. The positive spin doctors are rampant world wide and everyone is being led to believe that the markets will soon be back at 2007 levels. Everyone is going to rush back into the market in the next 3 months and that will push the indexes north at a faster pace. This is perfect timing for the IPO. Just do not hang on to them too long.

 

[stocksontheblock]

Well I just lost all faith in the IPO

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,26069451-15306,00.html

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Agree, there might be a short term $ in it........but if short term trading $ is what people want, there are plenty of better of ways to do that too

Anyway, who am I too question the market and people's optimism........I may be a buyer of this business at some point at some low price...........the fleecing of the punters is an important part of the stock market process........it's only after people are completely burnt that they say, "I'm getting out of stocks" only to reappear at the top of the next boom

 

[rol]

Hmm, I just partially went thru the pre-registration process. According to the FAQ, pre-registration doesn't give any share allocation preference over non-pre-registrants.

So what's the point in pre-registering apart from a personalised share application form?? pffft...

 

[zumz]

Looks like a Stag trade to me.

 

[bylife]

Just Myer prospectures shows some details:

Indicative Price Range: $3.90 – $4.90
Total number of Shares available under the Offer: 479.3 million – 499.5 million
Total number of Shares on issue on completion of the Offer: 564.8 million – 585.0 million



Wow, above $3.90 per share, the CEO is really confident about MYER shares.

 

[Julia]

I guess to make the purchase worthwhile – number of shares; at $5 I won’t be able to get as many as if, for example it was $2.

Maybe as you suggest – look at market cap, I might be looking at this the wrong way.

Just to add – I see the prospectus is due out on the 28th September. So maybe I will have my answer sooner rather than later.

T

stocksontheblock: you seem to have misunderstand the word dilution here, it is not the $ amount of the SP that matters, what matters is how much % you earn the company.

E.g. In a company worth 10k, owning 1 share @$1000 and owning 1000 shares @$1 equally means that you own 10% of the company.

The long term prospect of a company mainly depends on its future earnings, which is compared with its market cap.

Stocks, SilverRanger has explained it simply. Is it clear now? All you are concerned about is the percentage return on your investment. The number of shares is completely irrelevant.

 

[Dark1975]

So the 4 large investment bodies sellout there investment only to maybe keep 13.5%,And with a possible p/e of 15.6,Sorry hmmm aint no apple for me!

 

[$undancekid]

Just a warning to those seeing this as a stag, as i myself considered, I found the following info:

TPG has previously floated two department stores, Debenhams, in the UK, and Neiman Marcus, in the US, and both were disasters when they hit the market, with Neiman Marcus losing almost 70% of its value. The stories are eerily similar: chronically underperforming department stores that were massaged to deliver huge profits on limited or negative sales growth, and then floated with much fanfare.

I still think there would be money to be made from mums and dads and the "telstra crew" in a couple of days trade but there are better options around.

 

[ROE]

I wouldnt sell Myers shares to my grand mother
Look past the windows dressing, and you can see many flaws
buyer beware..

make sure you dig deep before you place some of your capital at risk

Right now Myers is on the voting machine
the more people vote and the higher the profile of the voters like our Jen the higher the price

Long term when the voter left the scene, the weighting machine may come into play

 

[skyQuake]

Just a warning to those seeing this as a stag, as i myself considered, I found the following info:

TPG has previously floated two department stores, Debenhams, in the UK, and Neiman Marcus, in the US, and both were disasters when they hit the market, with Neiman Marcus losing almost 70% of its value. The stories are eerily similar: chronically underperforming department stores that were massaged to deliver huge profits on limited or negative sales growth, and then floated with much fanfare.

I still think there would be money to be made from mums and dads and the "telstra crew" in a couple of days trade but there are better options around.

Get your facts right.

Debenhams ran up 5% or so, then ended their first day's trading up 2.5%.

TPG still own Neiman Marcus. It was never floated.

Index funds will rotate some money from DJS into MYF as it lists, plus the fact this IPO focuses more on retail than insto (myer one card lol); so I'm fairly confident there will be a bit of stag to be made.

 

[bugmenot]

Get your facts right.

Debenhams ran up 5% or so, then ended their first day's trading up 2.5%.

TPG still own Neiman Marcus. It was never floated.

Index funds will rotate some money from DJS into MYF as it lists, plus the fact this IPO focuses more on retail than insto (myer one card lol); so I'm fairly confident there will be a bit of stag to be made.

Debenhams chart here:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:DEB

If I'm reading that chart correctly, peak to trough looks like around a 90% drop within 24 months of float....

 

[skyQuake]

Debenhams chart here:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:DEB

If I'm reading that chart correctly, peak to trough looks like around a 90% drop within 24 months of float....

Yeah like most shares tied to the strength of the economy during the dip. There was plenty of time to get out once you realized it was going nowhere.

 

[outback]

I wouldnt sell Myers shares to my grand mother
Look past the windows dressing, and you can see many flaws
buyer beware..

make sure you dig deep before you place some of your capital at risk

Right now Myers is on the voting machine
the more people vote and the higher the profile of the voters like our Jen the higher the price

Long term when the voter left the scene, the weighting machine may come into play

What's ya grannies name? I'll sell her some. And a bridge, and a funny looking opera house. :