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My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

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Hope your right Aussiest , this up & up is without logic ?
 
Hmm, i don't know. But, i don't see any common sense to it, apart from the fact that a recession and bad news is already factored into the markets?

It is my guess that it will correct at 4,000-4,100. Don't know why, it's just a feeling i get. Meanwhile i am short. Not sure whether to close out my position or continue and pyramid down

Youch. I'll deal with it later
 

Aussiest don't let your bias/beliefs get in the way of staying open minded about the markets. Our job as traders is to trade what is in front of us not what we think should happen.

All that bad news has been beaten into everyone for months now, none of it is unexpected. Everyone that wanted to sell are now out of the market, the panic has subsided and as all the sellers are now out of the market the line of least resistance is up - for now anyway.
The people who were buying in at the bottom in the face of all the gloom & doom are not going to be shaken out easily I wouldn't think, so this again creates less supply. So while demand might not be what it once was, at this point of time supply has dried up.

I have no idea what the market will do tomorrow or next week but what I do know is I'm getting alot of signals to go long but not many short signals. These signals might turn out to be false but my job as a trader is to trust my system and manage my risks so if I'm wrong I get out with minimal damage done.

My
 

Never commit to any position completely, I've done that & been smashed , if it goes over 3727 I'll close out & stay up & take another short higher then .
When the drop happens I'll be on board I hope . ??

Dow is up as I type + 106 .....
 
nomore4s said:
Aussiest don't let your bias/beliefs get in the way of staying open minded about the markets. Our job as traders is to trade what is in front of us not what we think should happen.
Click to expand...

True.


Good points...

Will be interesting. I too feel that we have become habituated to all the bad news.
 
Bobby said:
Never commit to any position completely, I've done that & been smashed , if it goes over 3727 I'll close out & stay up & take another short higher then .
When the drop happens I'll be on board I hope . ??

Dow is up as I type + 106 .....
Click to expand...

Bloody Dow
 
Trembling Hand said:
Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )

nice little example here.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html
Click to expand...

Thanks TH , can't read it now as I'm trading with no stops .

Just a thought , your incredible skill at scalping is not just reading the DOM its seeing the ..................
I'll pm you how I think you do it if you wish , it hit me late today , see why you like the opening & close action ..
 
Hey guys,

As i said im pretty bearish at the moment still. In actual fact I am more than ever. Just concentrating on the points. My entries are not that bad, im around the 3780, and i have 120 minis in now. Whether i am right or wrong only time will tell, but it really feels like im still against the crowd.

To me the movement is not convincing still. the 200 SMA and EMA are around the 900 for the S&P 500 and I find it hard to see it breaking that at this rate. 8350 is the figure i am watching on the DJIA. I think I will close if there is a 3% breach of those levels, which will be painful indeed.

We have not been as overbought since May, and we went from 6 to 4.8 thousand over 2 months. Short-term is hard for me to predict, and i think that at this rate we could go a little higher, but who knows when people start selling.

This seems like a little last squeeze getting a few of the shorts to panic. there are some good reasons why we should go lower though, other than some technicals i look at. the big one is the very pricey stocks at the moment, with around 85% of the top 500 S&P companies over their 52 week MA, and that has been a great predictor of a turn.

I am waiting for shorts to come back in today, i am feeling a little sad without them lately. ... End of the month today, so we will see what happens over the next few hours, but I get the feeling some last-hour short selling is not out of the question
 
One thing is for sure I'm going to catch the drop or pay the price !
 
Bobby said:
Hello Ivan ,

Ups & ups ? thrown me out of kilter ..
Click to expand...

Lol, the gap did get closed though, as they often do in the US. They tested those levels, and so far were unsuccessful. Good for the shorts. If they retest again, and fail, we could get a severe pullback. Alternatively, we may not even retest, see how the last hour plays out...
 

Hi , I closed out at 3795 silly me ! for a 2 months supply of beer not sure about whats going on with this market so playing it tight for a change .

Can't stay up as long as you , good luck as Dow on the way down .
 
Bobby said:
Hi , I closed out at 3795 silly me ! for a 2 months supply of beer not sure about whats going on with this market so playing it tight for a change .

Can't stay up as long as you , good luck as Dow on the way down .
Click to expand...

Yea I think i'll be sleeping soon too . It gets really quiet until the last hour anyhow. Market is weird at the moment, no argument from me. It should have been down a few weeks ago.

P.S. good night!
 
ivant said:
Yea I think i'll be sleeping soon too . It gets really quiet until the last hour anyhow. Market is weird at the moment, no argument from me. It should have been down a few weeks ago.

P.S. good night!
Click to expand...

Good night & agree its weird
 
Family_Guy, sorry for hijacking your thread! But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?

Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.

I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important .

Should be interesting...
 

I do feel bad for hijacking the thread! How about one here... I think its only fair we discuss strategies here and not so much particular moves .

I'll reply there
 
Trembling Hand said:
Boys for now I think ya pushing against the action. Ya livin in the past (not to say that will be the future )

nice little example here.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/04/nice-measure-of-stock-market-resilience.html
Click to expand...

But if the SPY (500) in April is generally gapping down and trading back up, wouldn't this infer Asia/Europe on average are gapping up and trading back down? So one showing resilience, the other showing vulnerability? Who leads who? Or am I confusing myself?
 
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