My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

[Bobby]

To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!! That IB account will be opened next week!

I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).

I jumped in to early & now out , 3767 as I type , Dow is up & chopping some ,
Will see if it keeps going before before another entry later .
Ivan you may be to early like I was but whats a few points as long as it crashes later good luck ..

 

[Aussiest]

This is what's worrying me:

"Most companies have managed to beat tempered expectations and traders may latch on to the positivism, as they fervently hope for a turnaround in economic conditions. Ford (F), Amazon (AMZN) and American Express (AXP) were among the companies, which reported better-than-expected results. Additionally, a rally in price of commodities is likely to generate buying interest in the space."

This was taken from the ADVFN Newsletter.

Link http://www.advfn.com If you're interested. It states the obvious, but sometimes it's a good read.

 

[Aussiest]

I jumped in to early & now out , 3767 as I type , Dow is up & chopping some ,
Will see if it keeps going before before another entry later .
Ivan you may be to early like I was but whats a few points as long as it crashes later good luck ..

Good work, i'm glad you got out.

 

[Bobby]

Good work, i'm glad you got out.

Yep jumped when it got to hot , was tempted a moment ago to re-entry off 3771 but Dow still looks like it could do anything .
Getting tied & no point trying to place a stop & going to bed as they get hit by the magic spike

 

[ivant]

Haha maybe, but I still have a very light position. I only have 30 mini contracts in. I'll be doubling that as it moves higher, possibly even 3780-3800. Then I will add 40 at 3850. I don't see it likely that it will break higher that that, but if it does, I have another 20 that I'll add later. That will take my personal position to 24. Once it starts moving I might add a little more. Time will tell.

Some really good news out today, S&P is still struggling with 865. DJIA is around 8050 still. Once DJIA hits 8175 I will be entering the 3780-3800 ones. This one feels okay now. I realised I'm happier in this trade than out of it. I have to put up with these contracts for a few weeks now lol.

 

[ivant]

PS 880 is the magic level on S&P... Don't see them breaking that. If it does, anything can happen then. I mean a 3%+ break. We are getting overbought in the short term.

 

[Bobby]

Haha maybe, but I still have a very light position. I only have 30 mini contracts in. I'll be doubling that as it moves higher, possibly even 3780-3800. Then I will add 40 at 3850. I don't see it likely that it will break higher that that, but if it does, I have another 20 that I'll add later. That will take my personal position to 24. Once it starts moving I might add a little more. Time will tell.

Some really good news out today, S&P is still struggling with 865. DJIA is around 8050 still. Once DJIA hits 8175 I will be entering the 3780-3800 ones. This one feels okay now. I realised I'm happier in this trade than out of it. I have to put up with these contracts for a few weeks now lol.

Wow your going in big time then as it shoots what a way to go !!!
No stops ! they can't do stuff all , HaHaHaaa'''''''
And your going to hold for weeks ~ incredible trading if you pull it off and you probably will :bowdown::bowdown: :

 

[ivant]

Wow your going in big time then as it shoots what a way to go !!!
No stops ! they can't do stuff all , HaHaHaaa'''''''
And your going to hold for weeks ~ incredible trading if you pull it off and you probably will :bowdown::bowdown: :

Haha you have given me victory well before it has come. I am going about double what I usually do for 2 reasons:

1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here
2) I feel good about the markets at the moment.

Hopefully it doesn't backfire

Still hoping this goes up a little more. 3780 suddenly doesn't seem amazing. I still might enter soon I don't know lol.

 

[Bobby]

Haha you have given me victory well before it has come. I am going about double what I usually do for 2 reasons:

1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here
2) I feel good about the markets at the moment.

Hopefully it doesn't backfire

Still hoping this goes up a little more. 3780 suddenly doesn't seem amazing. I still might enter soon I don't know lol.

I won't wish you good luck as you seem to create your own

I think that pullback is getting close real close , looks like it will go 3780 +
wish I could stay awake
Those 2 accounts of yours still playing up ? lucky you can deal through the other ones , stinks ! gotta be careful of whats said

 

[ivant]

I won't wish you good luck as you seem to create your own

I think that pullback is getting close real close , looks like it will go 3780 +
wish I could stay awake
Those 2 accounts of yours still playing up ? lucky you can deal through the other ones , stinks ! gotta be careful of whats said

Ha! Extra luck always helps!! . The other accounts are not mine, I just manage them. They belong to my parents. The pullback is definitely close!! So much good news, and such a little response is not good. It seems the line of least resistance is to the downside at the moment though...

Thanks for sticking around

 

[Bobby]

Ha! Extra luck always helps!! . The other accounts are not mine, I just manage them. They belong to my parents. The pullback is definitely close!! So much good news, and such a little response is not good. It seems the line of least resistance is to the downside at the moment though...

Thanks for sticking around

OK I'll throw in some Luck !
This up & up must be close to falling down down down .....
If it hangs on a bit more you have factored that in so all should be ok .

Love to take some trades but would need to stay up to monitor them , as I said before ``` stops get hit

Sorry but going to hit the sack , hope all turns out good tonight , bye for now
.

 

[ivant]

OK I'll throw in some Luck !
This up & up must be close to falling down down down .....
If it hangs on a bit more you have factored that in so all should be ok .

Love to take some trades but would need to stay up to monitor them , as I said before ``` stops get hit

Sorry but going to hit the sack , hope all turns out good tonight , bye for now
.

Lol! Thanks a lot! Have a good night! Stops are evil when it comes to MMs

 

[Aussiest]

How'd the SPI go last night?

What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?

(surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)

 

[jersey10]

1) Statistically there is a massive chance of a pullback here

What statistics do you have that leads you to this conclusion?

 

[Bobby]

How'd the SPI go last night?

What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?

(surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)

Hit 3784 , just like Ivan thought it would ! finished bid 75 - ask 79 .

Aussiest If you want independent free live SPI data look here :-- http://sfetradinggame.if5.com/home.aspx

 

[ivant]

How'd the SPI go last night?

What did it peak at? And, what did it end on?

(surprise, surprise. IG Markets' platform is down)

IG Markets closes the platform down on the weekend for maintenance. I got some more shorts in between 3780.5-3783.5, which was the peak on the sell side. The highest it got is 3783.5/3790.5.

Mostly interested in what Monday will bring. If we rally, we will get overbought. I think its the end of the line for the DOW/S&P500, will be interesting to see what it brings on Monday night.

What statistics do you have that leads you to this conclusion?

Statistically US markets peak when between 75% and 80% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 day moving averages. Currently we are at 80%. There are other reasons too, but I have outlined them earlier in the post and in my blog.

 

[Rick_Hunter]

Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread or your blog .

Just a few quick questions:

- I understand how you pyramid when things are against you, but how do you pyramid when things go your way? For example, the asx200 is currently banding between 3700-3800ish lately. if you started at 3800 and pyramided at 3700 on top of your short positions, you'll just end up breaking even once it rebounds to 3800. Or do you add to your position once it clearly breaks below 3700?

- How long do you usually hold onto your positions? I find that I always struggle to hold onto some of my winning positions once it's starting to go my way, even if i have set myself targets to reach

cheers.

 

[Aussiest]

I used to sell prematurely when a position went in my favour.

It hit me like a flash of lightening today that i need to be objective and totally detached when trading, so therefore, i will set my trades. Wait for them to hit 'break even', before i get too excited. You need to eliminate the excitement from your trading.

(Thanks tech/a for making me see the light / helping me through that part of it )

 

[Cartman]

Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread or your blog .

Totally agree Rick ---- Ivan has set an interesting precedent (thats an understatement!!) with what he's done, and i reckon all of us are keen to see how he continues to attack the market ---

i go on public record and say im happy to be his manager LOL --- (my fees are very reasonable) ------ now whats 1% of 400 grand ..... haha --- just kidding "IVE" !! --- thats right --- good managers are worth 4 or 5 % --- im being underpaid ---- Good luck with it young M8 ---

 

[ivant]

Hey Ivan, firstly, thanks alot for your input into how you trade the SPI latey, it's definitely very interesting and helped me out heaps the last week or so (noobie here!). Would be great if you can keep your thoughts going on this thread or your blog .

Just a few quick questions:

- I understand how you pyramid when things are against you, but how do you pyramid when things go your way? For example, the asx200 is currently banding between 3700-3800ish lately. if you started at 3800 and pyramided at 3700 on top of your short positions, you'll just end up breaking even once it rebounds to 3800. Or do you add to your position once it clearly breaks below 3700?

- How long do you usually hold onto your positions? I find that I always struggle to hold onto some of my winning positions once it's starting to go my way, even if i have set myself targets to reach

cheers.

Hey, thanks for the reply I am very glad I have been of help

The problem with me is that I am not a trend trader, and so it is difficult for me to pyramid when things go my way. I mostly play oversold/overbought levels and as a result I find it hard to pyramid when things are my way, because the longer a position goes my way the closer I am to reversing my position.

I hold on to positions based on psychology and I wait for a trend to die off. I was long in the market for a few months and started going short a few weeks ago (as i mentioned earlier). I do try to do some trend following when I am in a position, but it is something I am trying to get better at over time. I held onto all the 25% gain over the months because it didn't seem to show any weakness in the rally. There was a major resistance level at 880 on the S&P and there was no major doubt that it would rally to those levels. Like in this down leg, it seems logical we will lose at least 50% of the rally, and most likely retest the lows again before October. Maybe try to imagine that you are holding onto a losing position when you are winning and treat a losing position as a winning one? It helps. But it is one of the hardest tricks of the game, to hold onto winners. It starts to come with experience.

I used to sell prematurely when a position went in my favour.

It hit me like a flash of lightening today that i need to be objective and totally detached when trading, so therefore, i will set my trades. Wait for them to hit 'break even', before i get too excited. You need to eliminate the excitement from your trading.

(Thanks tech/a for making me see the light / helping me through that part of it )

Excitement is an evil in trading you are right. This is a business like any other, and a cool head helps I found that its better not to be in a trade if you are not thinking straight. You see things you missed if your trade is closed out