My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

ivant · 24 April 2009

Bobby said:
Be careful , I'm not following the DJIA
Going to get some sleep , always tomorrow .
SPI just started to mimic the DOW , hope you clean up later.

They all work together at this time For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.

Good night

alwaysLearning · 24 April 2009

ivant said:
They all work together at this time For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.

Good night

what do you think of the forex spot market Ivan?

Have you tried any of those forex demo accounts? Maybe with Oanda or such?

ivant · 24 April 2009

alwaysLearning said:
what do you think of the forex spot market Ivan?

Have you tried any of those forex demo accounts? Maybe with Oanda or such?

Actually I did once. It was out of rage more than anything else. I wanted to see how quickly I can lose 100k. Took me 15 minutes. Started clicking on a currency pair in which I didn't know what country one of the currencies belonged to. On a more serious note, I'm trying to understand currency, but I find it hard. I'm mostly looking at AUD/USD (due to the need to convert crude oil profits/losses back into AUD) and I try look at the Pound US and Euro relationships. I don't think I will trade currency anytime soon though. I just don't feel it at all. Pretty much like equities when I just started trading.

Aussiest · 24 April 2009

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ivant said:
I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again.

A question for you Ivan.

What if your target is not quite met? Would you enter anyway?

Last night, the SPI got to around 3768. Did you enter?

Would you compromise on your entry point? And, if so, by how much?

Bobby · 24 April 2009

ivant said:
They all work together at this time For a short trade, you effectively trade the DJIA. I'm waiting for about 3770-80 to start shorting again. Hopefully this is soon. Right about the time DJIA touches the 8050-8100 and about the time S&P will be 865-880 i believe. Well in any case, time will see.

Good night

Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ?
Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs ouch !
It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .

shag · 24 April 2009

well i nearly blew it last year, a house purchase and i held onto my resources over the previous xmas period post purchase, but by then bhp and wpl had dropped considerably before settlement date. i sold the wpl at a then sad 47 (the bulk of portfolio), and just scrapped thru.
over a yr later i've got a house, 47 for wpl looks damn good, and i've built up enough again for the next 30-40pc of a dwelling...
i partly held close to settlement as historically the market perferms ok over new year and jan/feb, supposedly, and i hate cash. but greed and a gamble was a factor too.

Aussiest · 24 April 2009

Bobby said:
Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ?
Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs ouch !
It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .

It dropped right down to just under 3700 before market close.

It could go back up to 3770, after last night's rally

I'm holding out until i get more confirmation...

Shag,

Not really sure what you mean.

Do you mean you almost lost the lot and then traded your way back to buying a house etc?

ivant · 24 April 2009

Aussiest said:
A question for you Ivan.

What if your target is not quite met? Would you enter anyway?

Last night, the SPI got to around 3768. Did you enter?

Would you compromise on your entry point? And, if so, by how much?

I didn't enter, because I'd like a little more confirmation as you noted too. I'd rather get in under 3650 at the moment, then risk the market rallying up to 3900, which is possible in the near term. I can compromise on entry, however id rather compromise on exit, which I usually do anyhow. But I wasn't too happy with the way it was moving, so I will be waiting. (I must admit, I did nearly put shorts in in the morning around the 3760 and would have sold at 3700 (where the channel ends, which is showing some good support at the moment).

Bobby said:
Gee do you think the SPI will be back near 3770 again soon ?
Crawled out of bed around 9 & checked out those late highs ouch !
It was going begging .... will have to set the alarm I think .

I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts.

Aussiest said:
It dropped right down to just under 3700 before market close.

It could go back up to 3770, after last night's rally

I'm holding out until i get more confirmation...

Shag,

Not really sure what you mean.

Do you mean you almost lost the lot and then traded your way back to buying a house etc?

I'm with you on the confirmation, as I noted before in this post. Not sure what Shag meant either.

Aussiest · 24 April 2009

ivant said:
I didn't enter, because I'd like a little more confirmation as you noted too. I'd rather get in under 3650 at the moment, then risk the market rallying up to 3900, which is possible in the near term. I can compromise on entry, however id rather compromise on exit, which I usually do anyhow. But I wasn't too happy with the way it was moving, so I will be waiting. (I must admit, I did nearly put shorts in in the morning around the 3760 and would have sold at 3700 (where the channel ends, which is showing some good support at the moment).

I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts.

I'm with you on the confirmation, as I noted before in this post. Not sure what Shag meant either.

I nearly took out a short today and then realised it just wasn't worth it. I want to plan my trades better. At first i would have though 3800 would be a good level to take a short, but if it makes it back up to 3800, it may well push through. I haven't quite worked out my strategy (will do so over the weekend), but am figuring that if it pushes through 3800, it might not be ready for a short until around 4200? If the punters have pushed it through 3800, it might have some more legs behind it

Anyhow, i am curious. If you're so sure the SPI will go up to 3800 before you take your next short, why don't you go long until then?

Me, i'm not willing to take the risk. I am going to wait for it to drop, so i can go long, or wear itself out on another rally so i can go short (i think). But, first option is definately on the cards.

Bobby · 24 April 2009

ivant said:
I have decided I will start going short again at the 3780s, because that forms a head and shoulders. 3860 will be when i continue adding and then some more later on. I'm aiming for around 20-30 full SPI contracts.

.

I,ve got 2 running now , short off 3749 & 3741 just had give it a go
20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes ! wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !

Aussiest :
Hope the DOW futures open crook later

Aussiest · 24 April 2009

Bobby said:
I,ve got 2 running now , short off 3749 & 3741 just had give it a go
20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes ! wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !

Aussiest :
Hope the DOW futures open crook later

I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.

Bobby · 24 April 2009

Aussiest said:
I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.

Thanks "
Best I could have got was 3750 but 3749 is fine for the first one., unless it spurts up in the mean time & I have to reset ..
Well just got to wait now & see what happens when the US futs open .

Aussiest · 24 April 2009

Would you set a stop loss at 3750?

ivant · 24 April 2009

Aussiest said:
I nearly took out a short today and then realised it just wasn't worth it. I want to plan my trades better. At first i would have though 3800 would be a good level to take a short, but if it makes it back up to 3800, it may well push through. I haven't quite worked out my strategy (will do so over the weekend), but am figuring that if it pushes through 3800, it might not be ready for a short until around 4200? If the punters have pushed it through 3800, it might have some more legs behind it

Anyhow, i am curious. If you're so sure the SPI will go up to 3800 before you take your next short, why don't you go long until then?

Me, i'm not willing to take the risk. I am going to wait for it to drop, so i can go long, or wear itself out on another rally so i can go short (i think). But, first option is definately on the cards.

Haha, 3780 is where I will go short. I am not so sure unfortunately, which is why I got out of my longs at 3715ish. I don't feel comfortable going long at these levels. The risk is too big for me to handle. There are some crucial points at 3780 and 3850, then the top of the channel that I thought we could break today, is 3900ish. I've shorted the markets once already at 3750 sold out at 3600 with about 70 minis. But for me, going long after 6 weeks of a rally, where we gained around 30% is insanity.

Bobby said:
I,ve got 2 running now , short off 3749 & 3741 just had give it a go
20 -30 full contracts is BIG in my eyes ! wow thats $750 a point on 30 .,
gee hope you get a run of 50 , thats $37500 nice coin !

Aussiest :
Hope the DOW futures open crook later

It is a bit of a trade lol, but I am pretty confident. I am aiming for 3300. 3500 will be the next big pause as long as we can break the current trend. Time shall tell.

Aussiest said:
I was going to to go short tonight at 3752, but pulled out. I hope for your sake the DOW runs crook too. I would have been hoping for myself anyway.

I think the DOW will sail smoothly until the 8050 level, and then 8100. Will be interesting to see when the stress tests start coming out and what the traders start doing at those levels.

Bobby said:
Thanks "
Best I could have got was 3750 but 3749 is fine for the first one., unless it spurts up in the mean time & I have to reset ..
Well just got to wait now & see what happens when the US futs open .

1 point is $5 dollars per contract. Not a big deal my friend. Think big .

ivant · 24 April 2009

PS ftse is in a difficult position at the moment, will be hard for it to rally from here. the next time will be about 80 points from here. Not much!

ivant · 24 April 2009

ivant said:
PS ftse is in a difficult position at the moment, will be hard for it to rally from here. the next time will be about 80 points from here. Not much!

PS I will rephrase that haha. The next resistance is about 60 points from here (not 80). There isn't much left in the rally here I think

Nero64 · 24 April 2009

but somehow, i made it all back in Jan/Feb/Mar. So i end my first year as i started,

Family Guy it would be good to tell us how you won it back.

You took some serious hits and I was thinking you either have a lot of capital or your position sizing saved you.

ivant · 25 April 2009

To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!! That IB account will be opened next week!

I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).

Aussiest · 25 April 2009

ivant said:
To answer an earlier question to Bobby and Aussiest, I just compromised on entry, and started shorting the market. IG must be really angry with me. 4 glitches in a row (they froze and I had to restart the platform each time)!! I am managing 5 accounts all up, of which 2 are mine, and the 3 that are not mine were smooth. Mine was a pain!! Here is one for the glitches and faults page on IG of this forum!! That IB account will be opened next week!

I have entered about 20% of what I am planning to in around 3765+. Next is as I said at 3780, then 3850 then 3900. Obviously if this all starts falling I will be adding as it breaks the current channel (3640 or lower).

haha, i was just going to ask if you'd compromised! And, then to ask "what happens if you don't meet your target", incase the index doesn't reach 3780. Will be interesting, not sure what i am going to do. I outlined my reasoning before, maybe i'll stick to that.

Aussiest · 25 April 2009

Hi Bobby,

I hope you're doing okay

My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

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