My Brush with Technical Analysis

[pixel]

Sinking, floating, sinking, floating!!

I seriously don't know what to do with this one.

no buying volume; 1-year EMA didn't hold; Materials sector dead in the water...

Textbook example in support of Stop Loss.



In some cases, stop-lossing may not be feasible - e.g. if one held too many shares, so that selling would move the market to self-destruction. If that applies to you, you may look at the bright side and try to support (possibly even buy into) a break above 15c. For all other purposes however, unless it breaks resistance at 17c and turns it into holding support, MEP is a no-go.

 

[burglar]

no buying volume; 1-year EMA didn't hold; Materials sector dead in the water...

Textbook example in support of Stop Loss. ...

Hi pixel,
Thanks for your support!
I am not in such a position that selling would move the market to self-destruction.
In fact, I could break-even before brokerage.


But I am not after a dismal result.
I may hold in faith, for a little while longer, like I have done in the past.

"A feint heart never won a fat turkey!"

 

[burglar]

Its not showing anything technically---just like a dead fish floating on the surface.

I'm still hoping it's Lazarus fish!

 

[tech/a]

This turned over $9000 in stock today.

Your fish has joined the turkey keen to avoid
an Xmas dinner.

 

[burglar]

This turned over $9000 in stock today ...

I have $3000 in this trade.
I did not buy or sell today.

So none of today's turnover is down to me.

What was I trying to say?

tech/a, I am saying sorry!
You were right, I was wrong.




There! That wasn't so hard.

 

[tech/a]

Wrongs fine.
How long you stay wrong is important.

I've never seen a stock rise or fall on hope.
Seen lots of time and money lost on hope though!

 

[rimtas]

Yea mate, agree, hope will strip you naked...

 

[burglar]

So now I am getting a little flack over my latest trade, Archer (ASX: AXE).

Sure, I used a chart.
But I did not see any momentum.
I could not even see a direction.
I imagined it was ranging.

It dipped on that big down day.
I said to myself, that is below support.
(I told you, I was using a chart)

Next day, the RBA decision and an up day.

Then came the moment.
I would have bought this in an instant based on Fundamentals.
Why would I wait for the momentum?


So why am I saying one thing and doing another?
I don't even know.
I guess old habits die hard!

Why do I feel the need to justify this?
I am having fun with it !!!!

 

[tech/a]

Burgler.

Your showing typical bottom picker tendencies.
You see an up day or two from a new low and
start kicking yourself thinking you've missed
the bottom. You start explaining how you were
ready but missed it!

Then came the moment.
I would have bought this in an instant based on Fundamentals.
Why would I wait for the momentum?

Regardless of WHY---Fundamental--Macro and Micro economic influence--Emotion charged stupidity---- there are only 2 ways a price will rise OR fall.
Lets look at rise in your case.

(1) Sellers will exhaust---dry up--stop selling--keep holding.
OR
(2) Buyers will buy more stock than is available for sale at a given price.
That doesn't mean you need to see massive volume over coming supply
although that can and does happen. A stock can rise strongly on average
or even low volume if supply dries up.

So after a 1 c rise in this stock From a test of a support level--- lets have a look

CLICK TO EXPAND



From here we need to see
(1) An influx of volume either drying up supply or pushing up looking for sellers.
I think it would be the latter.
OR
(2) A break above resistance which has good range and fair volume.

What do I think will happen.

More ranging between the current low and 16c

 

[burglar]

Burgler.

Your showing typical bottom picker tendencies.
You see an up day or two from a new low and
start kicking yourself thinking you've missed
the bottom. You start explaining how you were
ready but missed it!



Regardless of WHY---Fundamental--Macro and Micro economic influence--Emotion charged stupidity---- there are only 2 ways a price will rise OR fall.
Lets look at rise in your case.

(1) Sellers will exhaust---dry up--stop selling--keep holding.
OR
(2) Buyers will buy more stock than is available for sale at a given price.
That doesn't mean you need to see massive volume over coming supply
although that can and does happen. A stock can rise strongly on average
or even low volume if supply dries up.

So after a 1 c rise in this stock From a test of a support level--- lets have a look

CLICK TO EXPAND

View attachment 60588

From here we need to see
(1) An influx of volume either drying up supply or pushing up looking for sellers.
I think it would be the latter.
OR
(2) A break above resistance which has good range and fair volume.

What do I think will happen.

More ranging between the current low and 16c

Never before, have I heard of soft resistance.
So much to learn!

 

[tech/a]

Never before, have I heard of soft resistance.
So much to learn!

Its a resistance which hasn't been tested over a very long period of time.
Often revisited over a number of weeks or months.
Generally associated with volume coming into it and showing clear testing.
This is more a level where a high was made over a number of days.
Its soft--likely to be taken out easily d not meaning a great deal f I is.

Where as if the Support is taken out that would be more significant.

 

[burglar]

... Its soft--likely to be taken out easily ...

I was tempted to inject more into these to bring the price up-to 16c seller.
Then I thought, why not let someone else do that, while I wait on the sidelines.

I am still wandering, should I take 16c if both:
a.) the opportunity arises!
b.) the momentum has still not arrived.

I may have a few days to ponder!

 

[burglar]

... I may have a few days to ponder!

In the past, I have found pyramiding to be counterintuitive for me!
Now I find myself in a position of discomfort.

It may well be the best thing to do.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Pyramid buying works if the stock is trending up while AXE has declined and plateaued. No one interested in pyramid scheme here but there might be some average downers in the mix.

Why do I feel the need to justify this?
I am having fun with it !!!!

Okay we see your approach now.

 

[burglar]

Pyramid buying works if the stock is trending up while AXE has declined and plateaued. No one interested in pyramid scheme here but there might be some average downers in the mix.

Thanks Wysi!

Been in the Average Down Club.
I found to my detriment, that it works until it doesn't work!

Expecting AXE to hit soft resistance this week, hoping for a little momentum.
Too big an ask?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Been in the Average Down Club.
I found to my detriment, that it works until it doesn't work!

Even though I know buying stocks in a down trend is a low percentage play, I am still a sucker for what appears to be a bargain. Did it again about 1 month ago and those stocks are holds underwater for the moment since the All Ords has a flicker of flame.

Too big an ask?

It's a matter of time really.

 

[tech/a]

A break above 16 c doesn't mean a move to momentum.

 

[burglar]

A break above 16 c doesn't mean a move to momentum.

Clear

 

[burglar]

I would have liked to see some momentum (of course)!
I did want to use T/A.

But I have it back to front.
I choose candidate companies first, then wait for momentum.
I have 6 or 7 favourites.

Tech/A has a system which seeks signals for entry.
His candidates already have momentum.

I will not use someone else's candidate.
For one thing, I would not take responsibility for the choice.




Meanwhile AXE Archer Exploration is behaving badly.
Downwards with a lot of noise.





MEP Minotaur Exploration is behaving pretty much as expected.
Sideways with a lot of noise.