My 52 Trades

johnnyg · 29 October 2009

Hello all, following on from skc's thread I thought I'd post up 52 of my own trades (Paper Trading Still) for a review and analysis.

I'll add to the thread in the coming days as I re-examine trades/ect.

For now here are some charts.

craigj · 31 October 2009

well done 31% seems good
over what time frame and how did the all ords compare over this time
you twice had 6 consecutive losing trades how did you respond to that

cornnfedd · 31 October 2009

if you pay $12 per trade, is that $12 to buy + $12 to sell? therefore your cost would be $1248? or are you paying $6.00 per buy and $6 per sell? If you are paying $6.00 who are you trading with cause thats cheap? thanks again.

(I know you are paper trading but you must have got that cost from somewhere?)

edit: and well done!

marknz88 · 1 November 2009

cornnfedd -> Interactive brokers ~6AUD per trade (~12AUD round trip)

Great work on posting your trades johnnyg.

What kind of strategy are you employing? swing trading, momentum etc. (obviously not day trading from the average days held )

oztrades · 1 November 2009

Ummm are these spreadsheet figures linked cause i counted 53 trades ( you 52), with 45 long trades ( you 47) between your groupedtrades.jpg and the final spreadsheet.

Like craigj I think you should have overlayed the index or showed trading date.

adt100 · 1 November 2009

Assuming Johnny is trading and not investing (resonable guess given 52 trades) then comparison to the index is pretty irrelevent........................

Assuming proper money m'ment rules are being used of course

prawn_86 · 1 November 2009

adt100 said:
Assuming Johnny is trading and not investing (resonable guess given 52 trades) then comparison to the index is pretty irrelevent........................

Why? If he has not outperformed the index then both his time and money would have been better deployed simply purchasing an index fund.

Obviously this does not account for the fact that he should improve with practice, but if you cant beat the index, then you may as well do something else with your time...

adt100 · 1 November 2009

Because purchasing an index fund would have had his money 100 % at risk. I dont know what his money management is but assume that his return is probably with significantly less risk than 100%.

I for one can not get near the return of the last 7 mnth but my MM is extremelt risk adverse and I know I will significantly outperform during sideways or a correcting mkt (now maybe?). The capital at risk is a significant constraint on performance in the short term and a hell of a bonus in the long term..........

Just think that people should carefully consider what their results are actually telling them and what they are actually trying to achieve?

oztrades · 1 November 2009

Hey johnnyg I think you need to check your figures because the ones under the chart don't add up to the ones in the worksheet.

Investing for Cap return ADT100 is going to give different results and thats not what the OP has stated anywhere.

I don,t know many day trades that go for an avg 17 days.

Agree with prawn_86.

adt100 · 1 November 2009

All I am saying is that a return of 31 % is far superior to the index returns of 55% (approx not sure what it is as of today) when risk is considered.

Some assumptions over time frame are being made. But lets say you managed to invest at the absolute low in March in an index fund (v unlikely).

Your investment capital was/is 100 % at risk. Now lets say the reults in question are from the same period. It has been stated 2% risk is used. We dont know the max no of positions held. BUT only 52 trades taken. So maybe fair to say 10 positions at a time max. Now the 31 % return has been made with only a MAX of 20% capital at risk. In my book a far far superior return than the indices. And why comparison to the index I would consider an irrelevent comparison.

I was only trying to bring some perspective to the Ã½ou;ve underperformed the index' 'argument. I think it is important to understand what risk you have accepted to make your returns.

Of course each to their own and if you consider my comments Off topic from the original post then I apologise but I thought general points were invited by the OP?

Oh and I would think many day traders average hold time has increased dramatically in the last few months. Mine have certainly gone from 3-4 day holding to at least 17 days.

Mr J · 1 November 2009

It's not worth comparing because the sample is too small. He has certainly run better or worse than he will do over the longrun. His winrate there is 50%, and just a handful of trades either way can take it to 40% or 60%. His average win there is double his average loss, and a few trades there would again significantly change the result.

Prawn96 said:
Why? If he has not outperformed the index then both his time and money would have been better deployed simply purchasing an index fund.

Yes, until that index fund loses 40-50% in the next crash. We've been having a very strong rally, so I'm sure many traders did not outperform the market. That doesn't mean they won't significantly outperform it over time.

prawn_86 · 1 November 2009

You could put a simple trailing stop on an index fund also, so not all 100% is at risk.

I do see what you are saying though, and although 50 trades is not a big enough sample, there still needs to be some form of benchmark so as to know what the opportunity cost of the time and effort are.

johnnyg · 1 November 2009

Hello all, been away over the weekend Buying and Selling, but of a different kind (Swap Meet) so haven't had alot of time to do any revision as of yet.

Time frame was from the end of March, to the end of October ~ 7 Months. I was quite lazy, and still am (something I need to work on) with setting up trades in the beginning, averaging 7 trades per month for the 1st 3, for the last 4 months I averaged ~ 9 Trades per month.

In regards to the 6 losing trades in a row, it's just apart of trading, you move onto the next trade.

As answered above, the $6 figure each way is using IB's fee's.

Oz Trades, I traded 52 different symbols, the extra trade is from a split parcel I counted. Nothing major.

Once again we have people comparing results to the index, and that's fine. I for one don't put to much weight into it, I think the max number of open positions I had was 7. Which would put my open Risk at the time at 14% (2% each trade). The XJO lost 9% from the June Highs to Early July, I had a draw down of 6.8%. From the highs in the last 2 weeks, to Thursdays low (which I think will be smashed tomorrow) the XJO lost 7%, I had a draw down of 4.5% and am now fully in cash, but you don't see too many people making comments on that fact.

Thanks for all the input, will add more as I get time.

adt100 · 1 November 2009

Agreed re sample size. Personally I dont think indices are a good comparison full stop. If we fall 30-40 % and as a trader im up during that period 30% what does that tell me that is actually particually helpfull? Only my system is profitable and the index fell......

The only usefull comparison is against how I have performed in the past. How are my methods holding up against my past or expected results. Assuming I have more than one method each of these needs to be measured and monitored.

Only really brought the subject up as have read a lot of post saying ''how well Ive done over the last few months'' when really the results need to be examined a little more closely and people a little more aware so that they are around to say how well they are still doing in 3 yrs time. Which I'd much prefer to see.

Even I'll admit im way of subject now but has been good to take my mind of trying to get Amibroker up and working ! lol

Off to get a life on a Sunday night!.............

johnnyg · 1 November 2009

prawn_86 said:
You could put a simple trailing stop on an index fund also, so not all 100% is at risk.

But how do you position size your original holding?

adt100 · 1 November 2009

BTW I wasnt suggesting that Johnnyg was saying a ''look how well Ive done'' kind of comment just that I have read many of them and always think when the become commonplace it usually a dangerous time......

Mr J · 1 November 2009

prawn_86 said:
You could put a simple trailing stop on an index fund also, so not all 100% is at risk.

True, but as soon as we do that we're no longer truly following the index . There's also the problem of knowing when to get back into the market. I agree a benchmark is needed, as there's no point putting in unnecessary effort. This is something that takes a while to find out though.

mythos · 2 November 2009

johnnyg said:
Hello all, following on from skc's thread I thought I'd post up 52 of my own trades (Paper Trading Still) for a review and analysis.

I'll add to the thread in the coming days as I re-examine trades/ect.

For now here are some charts.

A question about your trading. You have $10,000 as your starting capital and risk 2% per trade. The means each position you but is $200 worth of shares. I thought the minimum parcel you could purchase for a share that you don't already own is $500???

ThingyMajiggy · 2 November 2009

mythos said:
A question about your trading. You have $10,000 as your starting capital and risk 2% per trade. The means each position you but is $200 worth of shares. I thought the minimum parcel you could purchase for a share that you don't already own is $500???

Maximum you can LOSE is $200, so depending where your stop is, determines your position size. Not $200 worth of shares.

johnnyg · 2 November 2009

mythos said:
A question about your trading. You have $10,000 as your starting capital and risk 2% per trade. The means each position you but is $200 worth of shares. I thought the minimum parcel you could purchase for a share that you don't already own is $500???

I risk 2% or $200 per trade. My buy price is $10.00, My stop is @ $9.50, therefore the amount I am risking is 0.50. I position size using this $0.50 amount. $200 divided by $0.50 ='s 400 shares

Buy 400 shares @ $10.00 ='s $4000
Sell 400 shares @ $9.50 ='s $3800

Amount risked for the trade - $200

Hope that makes sense.

My 52 Trades

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