MTPredictor FAQ

[Boggo]

Just thought I would open a new thread here to answer any questions about MTPredictor software rather than clogging other threads.

Hi Boggo,
Given the benefit of hindsight, would you buy the package that all your screen shots,well except this particular one, come from again ?

In answer to Caveroute's question on the Futures thread the answer is yes, I would.

I probably need to expand on that a bit though.
If anyone thinks they are just going to buy and install this software and just start making money then it is probably a combination of some luck and abiding by the rules if you are successful, the video below is an example.

To really get the best out of MTP you need to have a good understanding of what it is trying to do and what it is telling you. To do that you need to have an understanding of a combination of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci to the point where when you open a chart you can "see" a picture made up of a number of items.

There are two versions of MTP, one is a stand alone version (that I use) and the NinjaTrader version. The outcome and theory is the same in both, both accept live data but in the Ninja version it is any of the live feeds that Ninja accepts where in the stand alone version (I use DTN.IQ) there are quite a number but not all that exist in Ninja (IB etc).

There is a video here showing MTP (the Ninja version) being used in its most basic form, ie, just following the buy/sell signals and abiding by the R/R rules etc, worth watching all the way through.
http://www.mtpredictor.us/3070/the-power-of-position-sizing-and-proper-risk-to-reward/

Pic 1 below shows the scanner, basically this runs in the background with a live data feed and gives you an audible alert when a signal is generated without the need for any charts being opened, you open them when you get the signal.
You can have numerous symbols being monitored with different time periods for each symbol.
You can have a number of scanners running at the same time provided that the one data source feeds all (I use two, Forex and Futures).

Pic 2 shows a TS3 (Trade setup 3) which is an ABC near the end of last nights AUDUSD.
In this case an alert will sound, right click on the alert symbol and open the chart and then a right click on the TS3 bar will place all the info on the chart, ie, entry, stop and target etc.

Pic 3 is an example of the same scanner and chart process being used on EOD data, in this case it found an alert on the weekly chart of ORG. After watching the video above you may see that the ORG trade was against the red STF bars on the bottom, this is where some knowledge can take you past the software basics when you can "see" more in the chart.

I hope all of this gives a bit of insight into MTP. I should also mention that I am a Beta tester for this software, I have paid for the full version and as a beta tester I just get the newly updated versions to run for a while prior to them being released.
I hope that all of this is of some help to anyone who is interested.
(click to expand)

 

[Lone Wolf]

Thanks for sharing Boggo.

I note the AUD trade (pic 2) got to 1R, retraced and very nearly stopped out before going on to reach the 8.6R target.

Is it better to leave the stop at it's initial position since you're trading the larger pattern and don't want to be shaken out by noise? Or do you still find that moving your stop during the trade can improve your results?

Also, I see price of the standalone package is the same as the NT add-on. I don't suppose you've ever seen them used side by side have you? I'm not sure if the NT add-on was around when you bought yours. But if you were buying again, would you still get the standalone? Personally I'd like the standalone version, but with the data feed options of NT.

 

[Boggo]

Thanks for sharing Boggo.

I note the AUD trade (pic 2) got to 1R, retraced and very nearly stopped out before going on to reach the 8.6R target.

Is it better to leave the stop at it's initial position since you're trading the larger pattern and don't want to be shaken out by noise? Or do you still find that moving your stop during the trade can improve your results?

My experience is that you will get stopped out more often than you should if you move the stop too quickly, I tend to wait until I get one bar clear of (above in the pic above) the 100% initial risk level (seems different to using EOD stock data where breakeven tactics seem to be more consistent and work better).
Having said that I am a bit erratic with my decision there, my thinking sometimes is that if it is taking too long to decide which way it is going I move the stop to breakeven. Its surprising how often there seems to be hesitation around the 100% initial risk level.

One of my small forex accounts nearly doubled in value in less than a month when I made the standard entry and watched the behaviour as it moved and either bailed out or at least tightened the stop using a trailing distance.
When I left the stop at the entry initially and then moved it to breakeven as soon as I could I found I was getting stopped out quite often only to see it then proceed on to what would have been profit.
I did give most of it back in just over a week though in an experiment that didn't work
Stable timeframes are something to be considered and seem to vary between futures (shorter) and forex (longer) imo.
There are so many variables but the bottom line is the account balance, anything else seems impossible to test.

Also, I see price of the standalone package is the same as the NT add-on. I don't suppose you've ever seen them used side by side have you? I'm not sure if the NT add-on was around when you bought yours. But if you were buying again, would you still get the standalone? Personally I'd like the standalone version, but with the data feed options of NT.

I do have the NT modules for an earlier version of MTP but I found the standalone version to be easier to use and suited me better at the time. I am only Beta testing the standalone versions.
The additional data suppliers and the ability to trade off the platform would probably be the main differences I think, or if you already use NT I suppose.

Hope that helps.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Thanks Boggo, that was informative.

I'm interested because it looks good for helping to frame the bigger picture. I asked about the stops out of interest because the videos I saw from MTP showed them sometimes holding out for 8R wins without moving the stop. I'm all for big wins, but when you find yourself at 7R profit, do you want to risk that 7R in hope of hitting your 8R target? What's the saying, "don't be a dick for a tick."

From what I can see in the videos, the main difference between stand-alone and NT add-on is that the stand-alone version has an auto update function for its currency cross rate table and gives you constant position sizes for all instruments regardless of currency. The standalone version seems more polished and user friendly, as expected since the add-on is, well, just an add-on. It's a pity the price is identical.

My stock data is in ASCII format which is a pain to load into NT. But my forex/futures data needs NT. Just once in my life I'd like to set out to buy something and say "That's exactly what I was looking for".

 

[Caveroute]

Hi Boggo,
I watched the video, one question if I may – the Trade module.

The presenter stated that it was engineered by one of their customers.

In the Trade module documentation, in two separate places, it states:
"Important: Although many brokers support server-side OCO functionality, in general, NinjaTrader handles OCO logic on the client side- that is, NinjaTrader must be open, connected to the internet, and connected to your broker for OCO functionality to be active and to function properly. As a general precaution, please be sure to monitor your trades carefully and make sure that a part of your trading plan includes actions to take in the event of connection loss, NinjaTrader application issue, etc. This guidance extends beyond just the use of the MTPredictor product and to your trading in general"

That’s just wrong – and also very dangerous.

Sure you can configure NT to work this way, buy why would you, when you can have the stops, server side on the exchange with no penalty, which is the default mode of operation. I asked MT support about this, and they said whatever NT does is what we do – but NT can do it either way.

I also notice the trade module has a ‘oco’ tick box – the use of oco should be the status quo and I’m at a loss to understand why it’s there. Do you really want to have to manually cancel you limit profit orders when your stops are hit – not to mention issues arising from server / client order residency.
I guess I just want to know IF the trade manage has been coded in some wacky way which renders it too dangerous to use.

I’ve also asked MT support if the MT triggers / events / data are exposed programmatically, if so given the fairly regimented trade logic the tool follows it might be fairly easy to automate the trading process.

I’ll let you know how I get on.

Thanks for any insights.

 

[Boggo]

Hi Caveroute.
I am at the airport at the moment on a painfully slow connection and will be back in Adelaide tomorrow evening so I will keep this brief.

I see what you are saying but unfortunately I am not sufficiently conversant with the current version of MTP on NT or the module to be able to help.
A while ago there was discussion about ways of speeding up trades and using NT with that module setup may be the outcome of that process.

Have you got any replies to your queries from Steve (in the UK), he is usually quick and helpful. Also, have a look on the MTP forum (I don't have the link here just now), there may be some discussion either on there or maybe on the NT forum.

Their USA support are on Skype but I don't have that info here either.

If you need any of these links etc let me know and I can pm them to you when I get home.

Cheers.

 

[Caveroute]

Hi Caveroute.
I am at the airport at the moment on a painfully slow connection and will be back in Adelaide tomorrow evening so I will keep this brief.

I see what you are saying but unfortunately I am not sufficiently conversant with the current version of MTP on NT or the module to be able to help.
A while ago there was discussion about ways of speeding up trades and using NT with that module setup may be the outcome of that process.

Have you got any replies to your queries from Steve (in the UK), he is usually quick and helpful. Also, have a look on the MTP forum (I don't have the link here just now), there may be some discussion either on there or maybe on the NT forum.

Their USA support are on Skype but I don't have that info here either.

If you need any of these links etc let me know and I can pm them to you when I get home.

Cheers.

Hi, Steve Griffith responded.

Basically oco is there to support brokers who do not offer native oco features - fair enough. It would be nice to get that documentation fixed though.

And, there are no features, or plans for an features, to allow any level of interoperability with any other systems.

To be honest I found that surprising - but there you go.

 

[bluey1937]

Hi All,
I have been using MTPredictor for a very long time (2008). Ok one has to have a reasonable knowledge of wave counts and to disregard hashy movement trades that do not qualify for wave counts. I use Bollinger Bands with my explorations, look for upper & lower band action and piercing trades.I then post the qualifying trades to Bullcharts for close examination , then back to MTPredictor for trade entry & R/R etc. Success on my small portfolio has been quite good.
Steve Griffiths is a great bloke and very helpful

Bluey

 

[Boggo]

From the XAO Technical Analysis thread rather than derail that...

Thanks for the additional explanation. I don't want to drag this thread off-topic, but I assume that MTPredictor has back-tested this as an indicator? I would be curious to know its success rate at identifying a turning point. You obviously find it significant, but without knowing the success rate it is just an arbitrary point at which one can say "this may go up or it may go down form here".

Anything to do with Fib and retracements or expansions etc would be just about impossible to back test I think.

Two examples below in the charts of QBE and TAH which give a better explanation of where it can be used to assist in decision making.

The left side of the decision point box is always above the bar that it is projected from except in an automatic projection such as QBE where it presents the likely lateral target area.

(click to expand)

 

[tinhat]

From the XAO Technical Analysis thread rather than derail that...



Anything to do with Fib and retracements or expansions etc would be just about impossible to back test I think.

Two examples below in the charts of QBE and TAH which give a better explanation of where it can be used to assist in decision making.

The left side of the decision point box is always above the bar that it is projected from except in an automatic projection such as QBE where it presents the likely lateral target area.

(click to expand)

Hi Boggo. Thanks for the additional charts an explanations. I will put aside some time in the coming weeks to look into MTPredictor more and get my head around it. My TA to date has been very crude.