Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MSB - Mesoblast Limited

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Re entered with the SMSF @1.05.
Made money from this roller coaster before. But usually pulled out too early.

Time will tell.
 
Bought some more today at $1.20. (based on charting support levels)
I hope I know what I'm doing!
 
MSB is my pick for this month.
I am hoping/expecting the interim report for the phase 3 trial into lower back pain comes out this month.
there is meant to be some companies hoping to partner on this product and on good news a big SP rise is probable.
 
New York, USA; and Melbourne, Australia; Monday March 25, 2019: Mesoblast Limited

(ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO) today announced its licensee in Japan, JCR Pharmaceuticals Co. Ltd., has filed to extend marketing approval of TEMCELL®1 HS Inj. for use in patients with Epidermolysis Bullosa (EB). TEMCELL is already approved for the treatment of acute graft versus host disease (aGVHD), and was the first allogeneic cellular medicine to receive full regulatory approval in Japan.


30,000 people have this disease in the USA.
No treatment at present.
Japan has had acute graft host disease approved for over a year now. The rest of the world is so slow.
 
I'll show you mine if you'll show us yours. @Knobby22 you just beat me to it.

msb0104.PNG
 
Battle continues, higher lows, looks like keen buying to me.
Forming a wedge. Yesterday seemed quite bullish to me, price dropped and then just before the end of the day someone bought everything they could to take it to a rise.
(Sorry no graph, can't work how to do it from Bell Direct)
 
Knobby22 said:
Battle continues, higher lows, looks like keen buying to me.
Forming a wedge. Yesterday seemed quite bullish to me, price dropped and then just before the end of the day someone bought everything they could to take it to a rise.
(Sorry no graph, can't work how to do it from Bell Direct)
Click to expand...

G'day Knobby,

I had a quick glance at this on a six month Equivolume Chart. It looks like it is about to hit a big block of selling pressure coming from November 12th 2018 up to $1.97, once it is through that it has a bit of a gap which will close at $2.10. Let's see how it goes. :)

msb 13.4.19.png
 
I've selected this company as my monthly pick as though there is no obvious catalyst this month, the price is continuously rising and there are a few good announcements relating to deals that could occur.
 
Mesoblast got orphan drug designation for its heart failure cell therapy product candidate, Revascor,
 
My pick of the month again (after successfully tipping Polynovo last month).
I have noticed there is a lot of accumulation going on. There is a lot of interest in this company which has some outstanding phase 3 trials due early next year and this company SP will take off.
It could be this month.
 
Knobby22 said:
I have noticed there is a lot of accumulation going on. There is a lot of interest in this company which has some outstanding phase 3 trials due early next year and this company SP will take off.
It could be this month.
Click to expand...

You weren't far off Knobby. It's certainly moving today after announcing that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Grünenthal, a global leader in pain management, to develop and commercialise MPC-06-ID, a Phase III allogeneic cell therapy candidate for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease in patients who have exhausted conservative treatment options.

Under the partnership, Grünenthal will have exclusive commercialisation rights to MPC-06-ID for Europe and Latin America.

The announcement continues:
Mesoblast will receive up to US$150 million in upfront and milestone payments prior to product launch, as well as further commercialisation milestone payments. These payments include commitments up to US$45 million within the first year comprising US$15 million on signing, US$20 million on receiving regulatory approval to begin a confirmatory Phase III trial in Europe, and US$10 million on certain clinical and manufacturing outcomes. Cumulative milestone payments could exceed US$1 billion depending on the final outcome of Phase III studies and patient adoption. Mesoblast will also receive tiered double digit royalties on product sales.
Click to expand...

Sounds like it could be a pretty lucrative deal if all goes well. Lower back pain is an affliction that many people deal with, especially in middle and old age. I imagine the global market for this treatment would be huge.

MSB currently up 16.8% to $1.70 following the announcement on solid volume of more than 3 million shares. Looking good.
 
greggles said:
You weren't far off Knobby. It's certainly moving today after announcing that it has entered into a strategic partnership with Grünenthal, a global leader in pain management, to develop and commercialise MPC-06-ID, a Phase III allogeneic cell therapy candidate for the treatment of chronic low back pain due to degenerative disc disease in patients who have exhausted conservative treatment options.

Under the partnership, Grünenthal will have exclusive commercialisation rights to MPC-06-ID for Europe and Latin America.

The announcement continues:


Sounds like it could be a pretty lucrative deal if all goes well. Lower back pain is an affliction that many people deal with, especially in middle and old age. I imagine the global market for this treatment would be huge.

MSB currently up 16.8% to $1.70 following the announcement on solid volume of more than 3 million shares. Looking good.
Click to expand...
MSB is a serial pump-dump biotech. And this announcement takes the cake. As a general rule, degenerative discs don't cause pain. So they're coming up with a solution to a non-problem. Pain is a problem (a huge market, as you point out), but very rarely does it have anything to do with DDD.

Always worth a trade, but also worth having a look to see how past pump-dumps have played out.
 
I disagree.
Steroids are the method of choice at present to lower inflammation. This treatment is more long lasting and they are getting cash including 15mil just for the signing. Now there will be no more need for a raising. There are also other phase 3 trials going on all coming out next year.
The steroid refractory treatment (Temcell) is being used in Japan and will roll out around the world as approvals increase (more phase 3 trials) initially used to save children's lives and already bringing in some income.
The heart treatments (Revascor) are also going through phase 3 trials due early 2020.

More on back pain below.
https://www.webmd.com/back-pain/degenerative-disk-disease-overview#1
 
Everyone has degenerative discs after about age 40. In most cases it causes no symptoms at all. To call that a 'disease' is wrong. That would be like calling age-related skin changes (that everyone experiences) a disease.

So, everyone over 40 has degeneration of joints and discs in the spine. Yet the pain comes and goes. One week it's incapacitating, the next week it's gone. Does the degeneration come and go? No, it's a constant. Why? Activity levels don't explain it either.

Have a look at some spinal xrays of 80-90 year olds. They look like a rat has been gnawing at them - holes and crud everywhere. If degeneration caused pain, then every 80-90 yr old would be writhing in pain. Yet rates of back pain peak in the middle age years. Clearly, DD is not a cause of pain.

SP depends upon perception, so it could very well continue upwards. I'm just saying that it's based upon nothing.
 
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