MSB - Mesoblast Limited

[Knobby22]

My entry price is $1.74 over two trades. As you know though I do use some technical trading fundamental analysis is an important factor in my decisions.
The deal with Tasly has given the the company the cash they need to complete the trials and they have a loan ready also to stop dilution.
The end stage heart treatment appears to be working so further trials and blue sky ahead.
The acute refractory treatment works which will provide more cash and cash flow but the big one is the lower back pain treatment with early phase 3 results coming out in March next year.
Big hopes.

 

[Knobby22]

Not to say I know you are a smart black duck so we may see a pullback. March is a distant horizon in the share market.

 

[tech/a]

I hope your right Knobby.
But I expect a pullback from this testing of a previous high.
If it blasts straight through and then sees the highs acting as support---
then I think you'll be in a better position.

Well Id say that's about as good as it comes!!

 

[barney]

I have taken a big position.

Good call @Knobby22 …… I believe you are wanted at the bar as its apparently your shout!

 

[tech/a]

Being smashed today.
Needs to hold at old resistance.
The volume being so high is a concern.
These wide range high volume days tend
to correct very next day to about 50% of the
Bar.say $2.25. I haven't checked news
Is there a Catalyst?

 

[Knobby22]

No catalyst.
News was just saying that they had been put into a conference.
Went a bit parabolic. Too many short term traders. Not concerned.

Mesoblast Limited (ASX:MSB; Nasdaq:MESO) today announced that the 159-patient randomized placebo-controlled Phase 2b trial evaluating its allogeneic mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product candidate MPC-150-IM in the treatment of end-stage heart failure patients implanted with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) has been selected as a late-breaking presentation at the 2018 Scientific Sessions of the American Heart Association being held in Chicago from November 11-13.

 

[tech/a]

Being smashed today.
Needs to hold at old resistance.
The volume being so high is a concern.
These wide range high volume days tend
to correct very next day to about 50% of the
Bar.say $2.25. I haven't checked news
Is there a Catalyst?

Don't you love it what stocks follow the script.

 

[Knobby22]

Surprise drop after latest results.
I don't really understand why.
It appears to me that people were hoping the treatment would cure hearts when it was all about inflammation or possibly it was that the mortality was the same. They were extremely sick patients and it was a small trial, the next trial will be the one that shows how effective the treatment is.

 

[barney]

Surprise drop after latest results.
I don't really understand why.

I had a quick read of the announcement and was also surprised by the Market reaction … The only thing I can see which may have been taken as a negative is Bolded below ….


Mesoblast received specific guidance from the FDA that reduction in major GI bleeding episodes and related hospitalizations in the current trial is a clinically meaningful outcome with a high unmet need that could meet requirements for an approvable regulatory endpoint. In contrast, the FDA advised that the primary endpoint in the current trial of temporary weaning from full LVAD support is considered a biomarker and is not a clinically meaningful outcome in and of itself

 

[Knobby22]

I had a quick read of the announcement and was also surprised by the Market reaction … The only thing I can see which may have been taken as a negative is Bolded below ….


Mesoblast received specific guidance from the FDA that reduction in major GI bleeding episodes and related hospitalizations in the current trial is a clinically meaningful outcome with a high unmet need that could meet requirements for an approvable regulatory endpoint. In contrast, the FDA advised that the primary endpoint in the current trial of temporary weaning from full LVAD support is considered a biomarker and is not a clinically meaningful outcome in and of itself

Yes, I looked at this closely. Weaning is removing off the support machines so it didn't achieve anything on this trial. I am still fining that sentence hard to understand. What does the FDA mean by is being considered a biomarker and is not a clinical meaningful outcome with regard to weaning. I need some medical advice, any doctors around? I'll ask around.

 

[barney]

Yes, I looked at this closely. Weaning is removing off the support machines so it didn't achieve anything on this trial. I am still fining that sentence hard to understand. What does the FDA mean by is being considered a biomarker and is not a clinical meaningful outcome with regard to weaning. I need some medical advice, any doctors around? I'll ask around.

Yeah it was a bit hard to understand for me as a layman …… Given the Market response, there could be a couple of explanations for the price drop … neither of them clear at this point ….. Worth keeping a close eye on Volume and any potential accumulation/selling in the short/medium term.

 

[Knobby22]

Yeah it was a bit hard to understand for me as a layman …… Given the Market response, there could be a couple of explanations for the price drop … neither of them clear at this point ….. Worth keeping a close eye on Volume and any potential accumulation/selling in the short/medium term.

There is a bit of clarity in the latest announcement. the statistics for weaning need to have a larger base to be considered statistically proven. At present it is only 68% proven.

 

[Knobby22]

I bought some more at $1.45 at the opening.
It is now my third largest holding.

 

[jbocker]

I just bought a few. Seems like a good discount at the moment.

 

[jbocker]

I just bought a few. Seems like a good discount at the moment.

I bailed after a few days with a small loss. But it really has fallen away since. Will keep an eye on it for a re-entry next year.

 

[Knobby22]

Yea, I am down a bit. Not sure if I am missing something.

 

[Skate]

Yea, I am down a bit. Not sure if I am missing something.

Hi @Knobby22

The Good & the Bad
The BAD - Mesoblast (MSB) makes no money
The GOOD - Mesoblast know how to put their handout and ask for more money. (they do it constantly)

@Knobby22 have you noticed over the last 10 years they are always 'inches away' from making a breakthrough?

Going from memory (I stand to be corrected)
8 out of the last 10 years Mesoblast have been cash flow negative (meaning Mesoblast is a business that is more geared towards research than to make money for shareholders)

Investing in a business that makes no money is not a good idea IMHO.

Skate.

 

[Knobby22]

Mesoblast is in phase 3 trials at the moment with one success so far that is making money so saying they don't make money is untrue. It takes many years to get to this point but now we are at the pointy end where hopefully success occurs.

They may need another raising to help commercialise the results, they do need partners to commercialise the results. They did the China deal with the latest Heart treatment that is paying for the trials. Biotechs are always hard but the results are great. I am doing very well on two others and was doing very well on this before the drop. Comparing it to standard companies such as banks (which have not done well btw) is not really relevant. It is a different beast.

I may sell and wait to re-enter. It is hard to know whether the drop is just the market dumping it as it is in fear mode at the moment or whether it is the need for another raising that I had not thought necessary. The lower back pain trial is the big one with results due in March next year which is an eternity in this market.

 

[mcgrath111]

I bought some more at $1.45 at the opening.
It is now my third largest holding.

Big play, balls of steel.
What's your top two if you don't mind me asking?

 

[Knobby22]

Big play, balls of steel.
What's your top two if you don't mind me asking?

I did reduce soon after as price dropped but still own a few and waiting to buy. This company is giving me issues and I am down. The triall results were good as expected but they dropped anyway.

Top 6, CSL
Credit Corp
DGR
Afterpay
Star Pharma
CWY Cleanaway

All these are in profit. MSB is next.