MRX - Matrix Metals

[Serpie]

I was pleased with the weak day yesterday, but today looks stronger.

Hopefully we'll average in the mid / low 9's, and get our SPP allocation in the low 8's. Good buying at that.

They'll be please to see DYL going up to (as holders of 25M DYL shares). Would like to see them sit on those, and have a nice little sideline going.

 

[TedE]

Assuming it started yesterday, anyone have an insight as to how the calculation works.

Heres how I think it works based on the announcement:
((Volume Day 1 x Closing Price Day 1) + (Volume Day 2 x Closing Price Day 2) + (Volume Day 3 x Closing Price Day 3)... etc)/Volume for the 5 days.

If thats correct I currently have the weighted average for the 1st 2 days as follows:
((2,294,555 x 0.083) + (2,156,820 x 0.086))/4,451,375 = 0.08445...

At a 12.5% discount this would come out at 0.07389... cents per share which, for $5,000, translates to 67,662 shares (rounded).

Any comments?

Please note, I have no expertise in maths... please DYOR.

 

[Serpie]

That's may understanding of it too TedE.
Bargain basement prices - as long as it doesn't fly this week.

 

[TedE]

Heres how I think it works based on the announcement:
((Volume Day 1 x Closing Price Day 1) + (Volume Day 2 x Closing Price Day 2) + (Volume Day 3 x Closing Price Day 3)... etc)/Volume for the 5 days.

For all those playing along at home... after close on Day 3 using the formula above, I come up with the following:
Weighted Average Share Price: 0.0840261...
Discounted price: 0.0735229...
Shares per $5,000: 68,006 (Rounded)

Once again, I'm no expert and I can't be sure thats correct... please DYOR.

Ted

 

[Serpie]

Nice work TedE,

I'm in favour of anything that saves my limited brain capacity. Keep those rolling averages coming.

And in the meantime we're another week further ahead on our march towards copper production. All good.

Cheers
Serpie

 

[Serpie]

What's the score TedE?

 

[TedE]

What's the score TedE?

Evening Sports Fans...

Well, the stock went up today, but thanks to piss poor volume the average remained largely unchanged.

After Day 4 my calculations come out as follows:
Average Price: 0.08410574...
Apply the discount: 0.07359252...
Shares per $5,000: 67,942 (rounded)

With one day left to go, I don't see the no of shares per $5,000 dropping below 65,000 shares. With a close of 0.09 and volume of 10,000,000 on Monday you're still getting 65,184 shares. It'd have to be a pretty special day to pull it off.

DYOR,
Ted

 

[TedE]

What's the score TedE?

And thats the buzzer...

At the close of play we find:
Average: 0.084097...
Discount: 0.07358...
Shares per $5,000: 67,949 (Rounded)



DYOR,
Ted

 

[Serpie]

Nice work TedE,

$0.07358. Now that is a great discount!

I think that MRX may be getting penalised this week for DYL's dropping SP. With MRX's new holding of 25M DYL shares, the MRX price may dip whenever DYL's does.
I see MRX as the quiet achiever in my holdings. They're just cranking away, getting their copper production into gear, and not being constantly watched like a lot of other mining stocks. There are no drilling results pending, no exploration questions. Just loads of copper sitting in the ground awaiting a shovel and a bucket.

"Sticking to their knitting" as they say. And production only months away.

 

[TedE]

$0.07358. Now that is a great discount!

mmm, bargain basement... worthy of Walmart.

Only 130 days left until Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows... until then, there is plenty of mooting and uni stuff to keep me occupied.

Woo capitalism,
Ted

 

[Serpie]

Being sold down today.
People are swapping all of their 8.2c shares for replacement 7.4c shares acquired through the SPP.
Hanging on to all of mine. IMHO good value at both 7.4c and 8.2c due to upcoming production.

 

[TedE]

Being sold down today.
People are swapping all of their 8.2c shares for replacement 7.4c shares acquired through the SPP.
Hanging on to all of mine. IMHO good value at both 7.4c and 8.2c due to upcoming production.

Actually, they seem to have rounded down to 7.3c... just got a letter informing me I've been allotted 68,484 shares for my $5,000 (which is 7.3c).

Good to be alive

 

[TedE]

Beattie changes mind on uranium

* Sean Parnell
* March 23, 2007

A STAUNCH critic of the Labor Party's move to lift a ban on new uranium mines, Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has sensationally backed down, allowing for the development of up to $3.2billion in uranium deposits in the state.
Ahead of the nuclear policy debate at Labor's national conference next month, Mr Beattie told The Australian he had reluctantly accepted independent advice that increased uranium mining would not threaten Queensland's coal industry.

"I've got to be honest, I'm not going to be excited by it because I do have reservations about uranium, but the report is clear," Mr Beattie said.

Mr Beattie has long argued against any move away from Labor's three-mines policy, fearful it would cost Queensland millions in coal royalties, thousands of jobs, and lead overseas power generators to opt for uranium instead of coal.

His position put him at odds with key union leaders, such as AWU president and Queensland Labor power broker Bill Ludwig, and threatened to disrupt federal Labor leader Kevin Rudd's move to clarify the party's nuclear policy.

But a report commissioned by the Government from the University of Queensland's Sustainable Minerals Institute has found uranium mining, and nuclear power, pale in comparison to the global demand for coal-fired electricity generation.

The report found the Beattie Government was not presented with an either/or question; and known uranium reserves are likely to be exhausted within 50 years, while coal will continue to be mined for centuries, despite the global debate over greenhouse gas emissions and likely environmental controls.

Queensland is in the fortunate position of having the potential to supply what are likely to be two of the most important fuels of the first half of the 21st century, the yet-to-be-released report states.

Mr Beattie, who has been asked about coal and uranium mining during a trade mission in South Africa, said he would support policy change at the federal conference but wanted a caveat attached.

"I'd want to make certain that with any sale of uranium, the non-proliferation treaty is in place," he said. "Now I know we have one with China, but we don't with India and I think it's important that if the conference carries a resolution in relation to increased uranium mining, then we've got to make certain that sale is to countries that have signed the non-proliferation treaty."

The report noted Queensland had several uranium reserves with an in-ground value of $3.2billion. The largest, Valhalla and other deposits near Mt Isa, hold 37,000 tonnes of uranium, while the scattered Westmoreland deposits near the Northern Territory border hold 22,040 tonnes.

The Northern Territory and Western Australia have the largest and best quality uranium reserves.

The report concluded Queensland would never be a major uranium exporter.

Ah, music to my ears.

Ted

 

[TedE]

Woo hoo... back up over 9 cents. Where are ya Serpie? High Five!!!

Ted

 

[Serpie]

Right here riding the wave with ya TedE!

Seems to be great sentiment around MRX and DYL at the moment. 3 mines?

DYL surged 14% yesterday, and is holding it's gains today, so MRX's holding has increased by around $1.7M in the last 24hrs. Easy money, and a great deal for MRX as DYL climbs.

More importantly - must be time for an update on the copper production. I'm hanging in there for that.

Great days to be holding DYL and MRX.

 

[mmmmining]

Can I joint your guys?

Seeing the battle between SMM, PDN, and Areva?

What for, for the known resources? Would you like to pay $30/lb for an explorer? With this kind of money, you can buy almost all uranium explorers in WA, or in NT, and not too short in SA.

Why, why, and why?

I figure it out,it is the battle of land holding.

Mt Isa region is reach in Copper, Gold, Zinc, Silver, Iron Ore, REO and of course URANIUM.

It would not be too difficult to figure it out other people want to joint the party.

They are not going to pay $1.5b for it, they are not going to pay even $100m for it. How?

Buy the land nearby, and not owned by SMM.

There are quite a few companies have it. MRX is one of them which holds large parcels.

I bet it is just a matter of time that someone speak French (Canadians too) will take a seriously look at it.

Before that, I suggest that you guys take a serious look at it too.

 

[Serpie]

Mmmminig,

You'll probably already be aware of PDN already having exposure to MRX holdings via their large holding in DYL, MRX's partner in the joint venture.
It seems as though PDN are never far from the action.

I think PDN will be quite happy to keep their fingers in lots of little yellow pies without having to spend lots of cash. However, if the SMM thing falls through, and it looks as though it will, perhaps they'll be throwing their chequebook around.

Does anyone think it's a coincidence that PDN's SMM offer expires on 27/04/07 - the same day that the Labour Party's conference begins . . .

Good to see the change in tick play too. We can start to make some good percentages if we can leave 10c behind. Happy TedE?

 

[Serpie]

Thank you to Rogues Trader on HC for the following info:

MRX valued at 14.4c

Date
11 April 2007
ASX Code
MRX
Share Price
9.7cps
Market Cap (fully diluted)
$68.2m ($68.3m)
Issued Capital (fully diluted)
702.7m shares (704.5m)
Cash (as at 15 March 2007)
$5.5m
Board
David Humann (Chairman)
Shane McBride (Managing Director)
Clive Donner (Non-Exec Director)
Geoffrey Jones (Non-Exec Director)
Ronald Hing (Non-Exec Director)
Richard Procter (Non-Exec Director)
Top Three Shareholders
Independence Group NL (18.9%)
LinQ (9.4%)
Glencore (6.3%)
Resources Analyst
Andrew Rowell
Ph: +61 8 9268 2837
andrew_rowell@hartleys.com.au
Matrix Metals Limited’s (“MRX”, “Company”) plans to commence
production at the Leichhardt SX/EW copper operation (previously known
as the Mt Cuthbert/Mt Watson operation) during the September 2007
quarter at an initial production rate of 5,500tpa copper cathode.
Geotechnical and metallurgical studies are about to commence to confirm
the potential to increase this to 10,000tpa in the short term.
The development of the copper oxide deposits provides cashflow for the
Company to continue its strategy to focus on the discovery of world class
copper sulphide deposits within its 5,000km² tenement holding in the
prospective Mt Isa region in Queensland.
We believe the Leichhardt operation has the potential to generate
significant cashflows, given that MRX is unhedged and the copper market
expected to remain tight throughout 2007,. In addition to the Company’s
copper projects, Matrix retains exposure to the booming uranium sector
through its investment and joint venture with Deep Yellow Limited.
We believe that MRX will be re-rated as the market recognises MRX’s
move to production, its leverage to the copper price and the exploration
potential of its ground holding. We continue to rate Matrix Metals
Limited as a Speculative Buy.
Investment Highlights
• Copper Production from September Quarter – The Leichhardt
Project will be developed in two stages. Stage 1 has low start-up
costs and a short time frame to production (September quarter 2007)
at the rate of ~5,500tpa copper cathode. In Stage 2, production is
expected to increase to 10,000tpa based on geotechnical and
metallurgical studies being completed to allow the resource to be
converted to a JORC compliant reserve.
• Leveraged Copper Play - MRX is a leveraged copper play that is
fully exposed to copper price movements due to the absence of
mandatory hedging,. Hartleys currently values MRX at 14.4cps,
however, we recognise that MRX is extremely sensitive to copper
prices. In order to highlight this, our valuation ranges from 4.4cps at
US$1.50/lb Cu to 50cps at the current spot price of ~US$3.35/lb.
Stage 1 of the Leichhardt project is robust at current copper prices
with a breakeven point of ~US$1.60/lb Cu. The development of
Stage 2 is likely to have low capital costs and reduced unit operating
costs, thus providing an enhanced financial outcome.
• Glencore Offtake Agreement for Existing Deposits – Glencore
has secured the offtake rights to existing sulphide deposits and their
extensions on MRX’s tenements by providing the funding for
production at the Leichhardt project. However, new sulphide
deposits discovered in the area remain available for offtake
negotiations.
• Xstrata JV and Deep Yellow Drill Programmes – Xstrata has the
right to earn up to 75% of primary sulphides around a small area
(210km²) surrounding the large McCabe deposit. Drilling is expected
to commence in late March 2007. In addition, Deep Yellow (earning
up to 80%) is targeting uranium anomalies in close proximity to the
Mary Kathleen uranium mine and the large undeveloped Valhalla and
Skal uranium deposits. As part of the transaction, MRX has been
issued 21.4m DYL shares with a current value of $8.5m.
Matrix Metals Limited Speculative Buy

 

[TedE]

Good to see the change in tick play too. We can start to make some good percentages if we can leave 10c behind. Happy TedE?

Ecstatic Serpie... I'm relatively new to the market and this has been one of the first thing's I've got in on. What a great hobby, certainly beats flower arranging.

Ted

 

[Serpie]

You'll be even happier today TedE.

Mining has started, and ahead of schedule. First pour in July.

Sweet!