Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MRL - Miller's Retail

Re: MRL?

Well - there you go I spoke to soon - looks like the media is also hot on Millers trail. The following is from todays Australian.


Downmarket stores not merry
Katherine Jimenez
December 03, 2004
THE first casualites of the fiercely competitive Christmas trading period have emerged with investors bailing out of diversified downmarket retailers Funtastic and Miller's Retail amid concerns about their sales and profit prospects.

Shares in Funtastic collapsed 15 per cent yesterday after management dropped a bombshell, warning net profit after tax could be up to 18 per cent below analysts' mid-range forecast of $18.4 million and about $8 million below its $15.8 million profit last financial year.

Investors slashed 39c from its shares to $2.19 on heavy turnover.

Funtastic blamed a mistake with its foreign exchange hedging which would crunch margins in the second half by about $3 million, as well as weaker than expected sales due to a "softening" market in October and November.

But Funtastic's commentary was in stark contrast to other high-profile retailers.

Harvey Norman, Woolworths, Coles Myer and David Jones have all reported strong trading during November and are upbeat about the whole Christmas trading period.

Investor unease is also building about Miller's -- owner of discount variety stores Crazy Prices and Go-Lo and womenswear chain Katies.

The stock has been sliding since management revealed last Friday that first-quarter sales were still under pressure from competition but the slide has been particularly sharp in the past two days.

The stock fell yesterday 8c to a four-year low of $1.08 with 2.8 million shares trading. It is down 40 per cent this year.

Sources have suggested there could be more to Miller's problems than just increased competition.

In May, Perennial Value Management dumped its 8.6 per cent stake because it believed there were deep-seated problems within Miller's company that had not yet come to light. Perpetual Trustees Australia has been selling down its interest over the past few months.

But Miller's chief Gary Perlstein has repeatedly attributed the poor sales and profit results to the price war in the $4 billion discount variety market, which represents a big slice of its total group earnings. He has been particularly critical of rival New Zealand's Warehouse Group, which he says created the price war through its mistakes.

But Miller's apparel business has also underperformed and it appears that space is likely to get tougher for Mr Perlstein and his management.

On Tuesday, Target -- owned by Coles Myer -- said it would tighten the screws on apparel specialty retailers.

Analyst feedback on the Target store tour on Monday was very upbeat.

Citigroup Smith Barney wrote: "Target is on a roll. Based on today's fashion trends, the product is rich in diversity and depth."

Target said it planned to increase its direct sourcing from Asia and increase its presence in the country.

Citigroup said Target still had good growth opportunity through better average selling prices, higher sales per square metre and country stores.

Analysts' report cards on Officeworks was also positive.

Coles Myer's shares rose 1c yesterday to $9.79.
 
Re: MRL?

I must admit it has been quite some time since I looked at MRL so I could just be dreaming but...from memory I thought that there last DIV payment vasically came from cash reserves (and hence used a large chunk of it), with things not really looking better in terms of profit how will they be able to maintain these kinds of dividends?

Personally (IMHO) it is probably a stock that will contiune to fall until (if ever) a takeover bid is placed.

With giants like coles to contend with I wouldnt wont to be on the millers board.

Just my two cents.
 
Re: MRL?

clowboy said:
I must admit it has been quite some time since I looked at MRL so I could just be dreaming but...from memory I thought that there last DIV payment vasically came from cash reserves (and hence used a large chunk of it), with things not really looking better in terms of profit how will they be able to maintain these kinds of dividends?

Personally (IMHO) it is probably a stock that will contiune to fall until (if ever) a takeover bid is placed.

With giants like coles to contend with I wouldnt wont to be on the millers board.

Just my two cents.

My view is similar to yours, THEORETICALLY millers now has a high dividend yield but that's based on past news, if they are in so much trouble can they really pay a decent dividend next year- where's the money coming from!!!??? In which case what's the point in investing in the co if it's not making you enough money and it is also falling?? The intelligent investor seems to be upbeat about MRL management and have been positive on it all year- they say they are long term investors but they also do get it wrong. I'm just going to wait to see how this pans out, the warehouse group really has hurt milllers too. I don't want to put money in a falling stock and then wait two years for it in case it recovers. Better risk profiles elsewhere IMO.
 
Re: MRL?

Currently just above $1, if it falls through this week I don't see solid support till 60c, may waver at about 92c. I'm just looking at significant price movements but there isn't anything definite there in my view to support the stock. This stock is definitely out of favour just a matter of how long it falls or the time before some good news emerges. A takeover seems the best prospect but I don't know much about the industry, retail conditions aren't going to improve much more than from the present IMO.
 
Re: MRL?

malachii said:
Markmau

I acutally agree with you. I think that short of them announcing some really bad news that they are oversold. The dividend return alone in now around the 9.5% return fully franked. The only division that seems to be holding them back is the GO-LO bargain basement type stores. The rest of the company (clothing stores) is actually doing really well.

I should point out that I own shares in this company so this is potentially biased opinion!!!!

Malachii

Their dividends are 9.5/share (yield 9.22%), but their earnings are only 3.6/share

rozella
 
Re: MRL?

There was a comment in the AFR (first week of December) that a large institutional investor had told MRL to reduce its debt instead of assuring investors of dividends- no word of either being guaranteed. Very Very risky atm.
 
Re: MRL?

There it is, no divs from MRL, sound decision but market conditions are tough and the stock is no longer attractive to div chasers. Marked down heavily but it's not over yet, recent rounding top, the fall continues. Good one to short with market conditions not expected to improve in the near term but always a chance for a predator to gobble it up. Might settle around 80c short term if past price action (1999) is anything to go by but this time it's going down not up.
 
Re: MRL?

I couldnt for the life of me understand why they paid the last dividend yet alone how they thought they would be able to pay the next.

I think MRL will only continue to spiral downwards until they have some good news.

It could be good as a takeover but I wouldnt want to be holding it in the hopes that a bid is placed
 
Re: MRL?

On the doctorj barge-pole-o-meter, MRL lies somewhere up the far end with Chemeq...
 
Re: MRL?

yep, agree wayneL LOL too

it's a classic, love it:
Originally Posted by doctorj
barge-pole-o-meter
put me down for one too doctorj

But have to say what a great bounce for mrl today, day/shorts dream trade with close at .99 (15.12% gain). I got in & out frid with good 5% gain, who would have guessed (yep guessed!) it would do this today.
 
Re: MRL?

well, amazing week for mrl with the jump & large buyup..., had many of us wondering about a Brazin comparison.

ceo Gary Perlstein now has 15.82%.
all makes you wonder with profit downgrades, price plunges & buy up.
 
Millers Retail

What does everyone think of their new low? 68 cents, what do you feel will happen to this company over the next 12 months... takeover perhaps? Just interested in thoughts.
 
Re: MRL?

The chart is absolutely appalling. It could turn around, or it could go bust. I would look at djs before mrl, - djs has good management. I am looking to get back into djs when it seems to have a sustained uptrend.

Interesting to note that the p/e and div yeild are comparable, suggesting that either mrl is overvalued or djs is undervalued.
 
Re: MRL?

Is this a rounding bottom? Volume isn't perfect for the pattern and it is a bit different to the classical pattern but a lot of volume during this recent run, higher bottoms. Running into resistance now at 80/82c. An ascending triangle in the last few weeks? Could be as vol has tapered off. Too erratic a fundamental profile for me to enter as there are better candidates elsewhere.
 

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Re: MRL?

Yes Richkid,

The fundamentals are too erratic and unpredictable. The company has fallen big time over the past year and may not go anywhere soon.

I think the future prospects of this company would be the defining factor in deciding wether to buy or not. If the economy holds up and people start spending money more, it might be enough to pick the company up - providing management has its act together. A long term spec buy at this stage I think. :)
 
Millers Retail (MRL)

Decided to open up a new thread on this one. Tricky to say where they will will go from here. Looking at the daily chart is really a positive turnaround picture, with resistance broken at 97c. Some nice volume in the last week or so as well. I always look at the medium to longer term picture though to maximise return and the weekly chart is a hard one to read. I have put down important resistance at $1.09, and if this is broken may and I stress MAY be the beginnings of an uptrend. Its soo tricky as there has not been that much accumulation and the bottom pattern is hard to recognise. Maybe reversal head and shoulders. Possibly may come down again and may be forming a double bottom, probably more likely. Still reckon its too early for Millers to run as management are only still restructuring the company. OBV supporting this little rise nicely, showing people may be starting to jump back on board. Would love some opinions from other techies on Millers. Cheers, Lachie.
 
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