Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MRL - Miller's Retail

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Re: MRL?

$1.27 looks to be the line in the sand. A low risk buy for bottom pickers by my reckoning.

AS always, do your own research, consult your advisors blah blah

Cheers
 
Re: MRL?

I've been watching MRL for awhile now, it's sufferred as a result of a fierce price war with NZ's The Warehouse Group- and it's not over by a long shot. Margins are tiny and one of them must go or change quick smart- likely to be the Warehouse Group but a new CEO is toughing it out. This is a longterm buy IMO but it may not have bottomed out yet, but who knows, it's impossible to pick the bottom everytime?? I don't know if the price wars will affect its dividend payments either, it really is a fierce fight. It seems from the longterm charts to be heading to about a $1.10. Most people are investing elsewhere in retail since most other retailers are booming (eg funtastic, JB Hifi, Colorado etc). Maybe when the big boys retail cycle ends the lower end will come into play???

Funnily enough (for me anyway) the day before the Reject Shop was to list Miller's announced that conditions were going to be even tougher in the discount variety retail sector- Kinda took the puff out of the reject shop debut but it's recovered since then.

I've heard some brokers complain about Miller's management team but from overall reports they appear to be one of the best in the business- it's just a very tough business to be in!

As Wayne says it does appear to be holding up around $1.27 but there are a heck of a lot of orders at $1.25. Again, I prefer not to buy a falling stock but who knows, it may just shoot up and I'll be left high and dry- no news or figures to suggest an imminent change though
 
Re: MRL?

It does pay a really nice divedend, the question is will it be able to pay it in the future and how much will paying the divedend eat into capital?

There projected eps for FY05 is 9.7cps and dividend to remain at 9.5cps.
Of course there earnings are just an estimate.
 
Re: MRL?

Nice dividend??
Its down to $1.22 today. cant belive, dunno how low it will actually go to.
i personally dont see it falling much lower. I could be wrong though!
 
Re: MRL?

Nathan_b

Trouble is I said the same thing about this stock when it was $1.38. I have to admit I'm getting very frustrated with it. Especially after days like the last few where I made a decision to sell Mortgage Choice (MOC) instead of MRL and woundn't you believe it the next day MOC was up about 7% and MRL fell another 3 cents.

Man - investing can give you some incredible highs and really low lows!!

Malachii
 
Re: MRL?

No point in getting frustrated with get the hell out of it its costing you $$s

From what I see here most traders are trying to pick stocks that are bottom dwellers.

Like this one.This is the surest way to end your association with trading that I know of!!

Can someone explain to me why people (Well those here)DONT trade charts like the second one--UTB.

Every chart Ive pulled up that is discussed here looks like a candidate for the trash bin.Yet the excitement in some is fever pitched?

Strange that!
 

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Re: MRL?

Well you're right TechA some of the charts are very poor. I'm a newcomer to TA and I'm learning slowly but what I've gathered is not everyone on these boards follows TA (eg MUL!). Some of us try to pick the bottom (I've tried this and have promised myself never to do it again- but it's hard work to avoid the temptation).

MRL is going to find life tough IMO as their market is highly competetive and a turnaround is not apparent, either fundamentally or in the share price (Which is what I watch). I'd rather missout on some gains and join when there's an uptrend and a strong signal than guess and buy at every new low (MUL for example, if you look at the longterm trends can 'bottom' further down than it did last month, it just spikes and drops). Eitherway I try to cut my losses very fast to limit the risk, I don't hold and hope.

The other issue is that when a stock is low priced somepeople think you make more than with a $10 stock, even if the $10 stock is trending strongly. Also for people like me I prefer to trade short term and some of the larger stocks take a while to appreciate, this may be something I need to re-evaluate. I personally dabble mainly in well managed junior resource stocks for targeted gains of about 20-30% return (es EXS, BGF) and use company issued options for leverage. Sometimes I stay longer (eg HDR, BMO). AZR and DES are also on my hit list but they aren't exactly flying yet. Things are going to get tougher in a bear market for me.

Anyway too much off the topic here, maybe we should start a new thread on stocks that are trending well and what to look for? Thanks again for your input on TA etc most of us here are beginners. You'll see from some of my posts that I'm very much at the early stages and most of us here are trying to share experiences to improve. I'm still reading Edwards & McGee and the like to learn to recognize patterns. People like WayneL for example mention personal systems which they have developed over a period of time and they stick to it. I'm still getting there but learning alot along the way.

All the best!
 
Re: MRL?

Hi Guys,

though i do honestly believe, in the fundamental views of this stock.. that there are traders/investors now, and in the future, who wont look at this stock from a technical analysis view, but see this stock and other stocks similar as a way of positively gearing there portfolio.... for the long term, and dividend stream, but also for the stocks like this, because of its and their intrinsic value, but the opportunity of stocks like this, that offer you a passive income... if you were to get a margin lend on similar stocks like this.

Cheers,
sis
 
Re: MRL?

Hi Guys,

MRL, has had bit of a run in the last 2 days...

i dont think gain it has anything to do technically, but due to the Traders Expo, in Sydney, a few presenters, only a very few, were talking about intrinisic value + similar trading methods to Warren Buffet, still the primary trend of MRL is a long term down trend, IMHO i just believe the stock is having a rally due to to the expo news, but will soon resume its downtrend.

Cheers,
sis
 
Re: MRL?

Everyone thinks mrl is a dog. Probably someone had a look at the recently released anual report and decided mrl had been a little oversold.

I bought some.

Cheers,
Mark.
 
Re: MRL?

Hi Markrmau,

would you have any idea why people think mrl is a dog stock... im been watching this stock for a long time and holding it, and having the same view, but the MRL instrinsic value vs its market share price... is definite value.. look at its earning and cashflow...

its value for money... or do you think it could be possibly that, people are more after capital gains (share price appreciation) VS a dividend yeild.

though great to see you buy more of MRL, and hope you do very well in the long term, and other MRL holders, but my definiet view is, i believe this is a very undervalued bluechip stock, but will do very well in the future... (very well..)

cheers,
sis
 
Re: MRL?

still_in_school said:
would you have any idea why people think mrl is a dog stock...
Click to expand...

Hi sis,

This is not exactly a scientific method, but

1. Because it has been trending down so heavily since the profit downgrade.

2. I looked up MRL on hotcopper (note: I treat views on hotcopper with extreme caution. Look how much LHG appreciated when hotcopper posters were saying to short it).

3. According to the research page on commsec, the analysts give it: 1 strong buy, 2 hold, 2 sell, 2 strong sell.

I think there is the possibility it is oversold, but won't hesitate to dump it if it starts trending down again.

Cheers,
Mark.
 
Re: MRL?

Anyone know why this one is doing the dirty dive again? Was anything really bad said at the recent AGM? I didnt think the news was any better/worse than what they had been saying for the past couple of months.

malachii
 
Re: MRL?

Hey Malachii,
I was thinking the same thing today. I am about to do my first purchase of shares, been doin research 4 ages, and am about to take the leap, and i want them cheaper, but am getting jitteres of what the deal is myself, like they been staying in the 1.20's and this is like cheapest now in 5 years.
i dunno.... anyone else know nething? or have anythoughts theyd like to share?

Cheers Nathan!
 
Re: MRL?

Nathan_b said:
Hey Malachii,
I was thinking the same thing today. I am about to do my first purchase of shares, been doin research 4 ages, and am about to take the leap, and i want them cheaper, but am getting jitteres of what the deal is myself, like they been staying in the 1.20's and this is like cheapest now in 5 years.
Click to expand...

Hi,
You only want them cheaper if they suddenly then start becoming more expensive. There is no point in buying them if they start getting even cheaper.

I think you should look at what is happening at 12-1 tomorrow. Do a heck of a lot of stocks seem to be going down? If so, then I think things may keep going down for a week or two and you may as well keep clear. If most things seem to be going up, then today may have been an aberation.

I personally have pulled 80% of my capital from the market, over the last week, but I am often wrong.

Other opinions?
 
Re: MRL?

thanks for reply mark,
nah i dun want em 2 go cheaper is my point.
lol, its making me a bit warey, i belive they have a good company, and pay a good dividend over the last few years with a lot of potentil in em.
Down to 1.02 as a low today. closed at 1.08. seams cheap, but bit dubious tho of why. something around the corner.
 
Re: MRL?

Well I was 100% wrong about today. Even towards the end of the day I thought there would be serious profit taking in the last 1/2 hour to pair the AORD gain to about .5%.

About MRL: I don't understand why it is dropping so much, so I wouldn't buy it. Obviously something is going on (more serious than a general drop in retail sales), but because we don't know what it is, we can't judge if the market is over-reacting. (Actually, I had to sell my MRL immediately after buying it for minimal profit because it had a 0% loan valuation ratio for my margin loan)

As I said, I am often wrong. Cheers, Mark.
 
Re: MRL?

Just received some promo material from the Intelligent Investor which included their latest newsletter. They have been pretty strong supporters of MRL for the last 12 months or so. Until now. They have downgraded it from a strong buy to a hold and standby for worse so that could explain a bit of the sudden rush to get out.
 
Re: MRL?

I see. Actually I just got the 3 month trial subscription and must say I am not overly impressed with it. (My opinion only - any other thoughts?). A quick snapshot seems to point to a number of times they got it wrong - sell ORI, buy MRL for the last 6 months. I am tempted to think that MRL will rebound once the current wave of selling has finished.
 
Re: MRL?

Markmau

I acutally agree with you. I think that short of them announcing some really bad news that they are oversold. The dividend return alone in now around the 9.5% return fully franked. The only division that seems to be holding them back is the GO-LO bargain basement type stores. The rest of the company (clothing stores) is actually doing really well.

I should point out that I own shares in this company so this is potentially biased opinion!!!!

Malachii
 
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