MRE - Minara Resources

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Rederob,

I quite like quotes 40/41 on this thread . Wether youve simply held MRE as an investment.............or traded it on the pulbacks, its a cash cow!.
Bring on the first halfs dividend after 4 months of record Nickle prices.

Excuse me for my excitment but its past 8 bucks today ..

 

[michael_selway]

Rederob,

I quite like quotes 40/41 on this thread . Wether youve simply held MRE as an investment.............or traded it on the pulbacks, its a cash cow!.
Bring on the first halfs dividend after 4 months of record Nickle prices.

Excuse me for my excitment but its past 8 bucks today ..

Carzy stuff MRE, and nice divi!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 72.5 74.3 69.6 53.8
DPS 57.5 45.0 40.0 24.6

thx

MS

 

[rederob]

Carzy stuff MRE, and nice divi!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 72.5 74.3 69.6 53.8
DPS 57.5 45.0 40.0 24.6

thx

MS

MS
If you go back to post 49 you will see I forecast within 5 cents of the 45cent div, and you will see I also have regularly cautioned your trotting out Comsec as some form of corroboration of your views.
Both you and haematite did not believe nickel would sustain an average price that was higher in 2007 than 2006.
I understand that we can't always be right, but my analysis is based not just on what's happening now, but also on a forward view of events that affect the metals market.
Note that the BIG PICTURE for metals remains very much intact.
Although nickel remains at a ridiculously high price, its market tightness means that manipulators are playing an extremely dangerous game wherein a plus20% price decline is possible any time soon.
On the positive side of the equation, even serious and expert metals analysts are now reckoning that nickel regaining $50k/tonne is a reasonable probability: So price weakness will be heavily bought into.

In relation to the above Comsec dividend forecast, notice that they have not factored in another dividend for 2007: Are the stupid or simply forgetful?
Speaking of which, MRE will come close to achieving Comsec's annual earnings forecast within the first half of 2007, and won't need the rest of the year to make up the difference.
Again, I caution you not to place in faith in the Comsec data you habitually trot out.

 

[rederob]

.... MRE will come close to achieving Comsec's annual earnings forecast within the first half of 2007, and won't need the rest of the year to make up the difference.

With nickel habitually around $50k and showing no real weakness, Comsec's forecast is already dead in the water.
I anticipate MRE's next dividend will be over 80cents.
Should $50k nickel hold out this quarter, I anticipate MRE will be trading over $10 in the second half.
Downside risk was recently an overbought nickel market.
However, with an RSI of about 60points I expect nickel prices will favour upside in near term rather than downside.
This is also consistent with warehouse inventory tightness and minimal stock inflows over a significant period.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

BGI have now taken up a substantial holding. MRE's issued capital is now over 90 percent held by substantial holders .

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

MRE's running on wide spreads, not much resistance at all................rare for a semi blue chip. Bugger all sellers left

Low volume run though, the sellers will come (just holding back ATM,)!

 

[rocka1]

MRE Its getting hammered today down 7% percent might think about buying , would like members thoughts on stock price cheers rocka

 

[Ken]

MRE.

good value again?

how sustainable is this dividend?

IS THIS ANOTHER ZFX on a different time line?

 

[rederob]

MRE.

good value again?

how sustainable is this dividend?

IS THIS ANOTHER ZFX on a different time line?

Ken
When I posted in April MRE was holding its price on fundamental grounds.
Since then the tide has well and truly turned.
I expect it will continue to ebb for many weeks to come - maybe months.
Although MRE is presently making strong profits on good margins, I believe it will suffer further price weakness as nickel inventories continue to build.
Perhaps when it announces it next results its price will stabilise.
I am a long term holder, and believe another price cycle is ahead, perhaps nearer year-end.
But for now the carnival is over.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

MRE ..... should also be BOOMING over the next week or so,
from 05-12102007 and especially on 09102007 ... but, next
negative cycle is due on 08112007 ...

happy days

paul



=====

 

[Miner]

Dear Paul

Would you please put more details behind your brief analysis on MInara.
They will have a major shutdown which means no nickel for three months from the plant.
How your historical analysis will adjust with this phenomenon?

Regards

 

[rederob]

Dear Paul

Would you please put more details behind your brief analysis on MInara.
They will have a major shutdown which means no nickel for three months from the plant.
How your historical analysis will adjust with this phenomenon?

Regards

Miner
It's not 3 months:

CEO Peter Johnston
The objectives of the shutdown are three-fold. Firstly, it is to complete our normal
statutory requirements such as the inspection of pressure vessels and the
replacement of catalyst in the acid plant. The second is to repair and replace
items, particularly in the acid plant and the H2S plant, and thirdly, to increase
capacity in the acid plant.
Most importantly, in the acid plant the operation of the superheater has been our
most serious ongoing maintenance issue. The superheater is the last of the major
design legacy issues and has caused a large amount of downtime, particularly over
the last two and a half years. Acid availability has been the major cause for plant
down time over this period. During the shut we will replace it at an approximate
capital cost of $15 million. When the replacement superheater is operational, the
plant will be unconstrained for acid production for the first time.
The shut down commences in October and will finish in mid-November. There
are several parts to the shut. The first part commences on 1 October and covers
the H2S plant and the replacement of the H2S reactors. To mitigate the downtime
caused by the H2S reactor replacement, we have developed a backup system using
2
sodium hydrosulphide and that will enable us to continue running the rest of the
plant while the H2S plant work is completed.
The shut of the entire plant commences on approximately 21 October and will
finish on approximately 18 November. We have adopted a different operating
philosophy during this shut by focussing the major work predominantly in the
utilities area, thereby enabling large sections of the plant to continue normal
operations for substantial periods during the shut.
Once the plant is up and running after the shut, we expect it to operate at around
3,000 tonnes of nickel metal per month for the following six months. That will
enable the plant to achieve a stable production profile from which we can build on.

And this addition should satisfy the stupid 100 character rule that Joe insists on, regardless of content.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Miner
It's not 3 months:

And this addition should satisfy the stupid 100 character rule that Joe insists on, regardless of content.

Thanks Paul, that's much more informative, Joes rules make us come clean on our methods of analysis, your initial post could have been based on anything. (Astrology?)
One thing that makes me hold onto my MRE holding is the dividends, unusual for a miner, does anyone know the expected mine life for MRE?

 

[michael_selway]

Miner
It's not 3 months:

And this addition should satisfy the stupid 100 character rule that Joe insists on, regardless of content.

Heres where comsec forecasts come in handy

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 72.5 73.2 62.8 60.5
DPS 57.5 42.0 34.9 23.6

thx

MS

 

[Miner]

Dear Rederob

Sorry I did not follow MRE thread and noticed you responded on 1 Oct with adetailed note. Thanks a lot for the update and apology for not acknowledging any earlier.
Any plant having a shut is going to affect the profit line.
I understand from company's communication that during this time they have engaged their best manager of maintenance to look after the shut and hired a new manager to look after day to day maintenance. Which demonstrates their seriousness to make the shut successful.
Probably making the long strategies more successful MRE is having an ambitious expansion plan. Peter Johnson ex WMC has turned around the operation and if every thing goes well then the expansion is going to make the profit line much higher. Another thing is here that the current GM Operations is to look after teh expansion projects as well. Everything is fine strategically but please do not ignore the weakness that with two new senior managers for the operating plant there will be many recreation of wheels- HIGh risk on short term.

Regards

 

[sydney_trader]

MRE - Minara Resources Limited

I've made a little research: since 13th of September the directors of MRE has bought the company's shares exceeding 50 million dollars...

 

[nikkothescorpio]

Re: MRE - Minara Resources Limited

I think if you check again you will find that its not actually the directors buying - but rather that Glencore Intl AG is buying and the directors are ALSO directors of Glencore - hence they have to issue an indirect interest disclosure.

Glencore own about 52% of MRE.

I own MRE myself.

 

[wombo]

Re: MRE - Minara Resources Limited

News just in. The shutdown has been going very well ahead of schedule. Also the shutdown manager has been promoted to General Manager of the Mine.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: MRE - Minara Resources Limited

MRE appears to be looking quite good at this moment. Quite possibly a strong break out after long consolidation, with nice tightening. A nice breakout target as well.

 

[kerosam]

saw the triangle bought in on tuesday... then came the two bearish days... looks like it might be a false breakout .... sigh....