MRE - Minara Resources

[wintermute]

basically if production is hedged the company has agreed to sell a certain percentage of their production at not higher (or lower) than a certain price... this gives them some confidence that they have a minimum price they will receive should the price of their commodity drop... when prices are going up, this is bad because even though the current price might be say 35,000 / tonne, they may have agreed to sell it for a maximum of 17,000 / tonne... of course companies at the moment would probably be wise to be hedging some of their production at say 32,000 / tonne because they are making huge profits at this level, and even though the price may keep going up, it could also drop down.

So hedging is basically just a way to ensure some stability in a companies earnings (it can be a lot more complex than what I have said).

on point 2, yes supply and demand does generally drive the price, but perceived value does as well, there is also a lot of game playing done with market depths... someone might put a large bid in on the sell side to give the impression that there is a lot of supply, but should that bid look like getting filled then they may pull it (the might also have a bid on the buy side)... It's a bit like an auction, people don't always let on what they are thinking... often there will be a couple of bidders who are bringing the price up, and out of the blue a new bidder will appear when the others look like they have exhausted their range.. people don't always show they want to buy or sell, they can be just sitting their ready to place a bid when the price reaches the level they want

Tony.

 

[wintermute]

I sold today at 6.27. Not because I think there is anything wrong with MRE, but to lock in my profit (140%) because I'm concerned about a market correction in general, which I think we will see in the next couple of weeks, I could of course be wrong, and will miss out on a fairly substantial dividend I suspect. But I decided to follow my gut feeling, because in the past when I haven't I have regretted it...

Will sit out for a few weeks and see how things go

Tony.

 

[Halba]

wintermute! MRE is the cheapest nickel producer on the mkt, especially considerings its low $1000/t EV/T.

 

[wintermute]

ahhh well... I bought them at 2.55 so I have had a good run I'll certainly be buying back in when I'm feeling comfortable to do so again... I just hope they don't take off too much after the yearly report is released.... As I said nothing to do with MRE as a stock, just my personal feelings about where the Market is headed in the short term.... (which could be completely wrong).

Tony.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Should have been announced yesterday, MRE end of year results till 31/12, not to mention the first 2 months of 07 at record Nickle prices. Nice Divy announced


Minara Resources
12 months ended 31 December

2006 /​

2005 Revenue: ​

($m) 751.9 361.4​

Pre-tax profit​

​

$402.1 67.4​

Net profit after tax
$338.7 43.0

EPS (c) 72.83 9.25

Dividend (c) 57.5 10.0

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Nice open

 

[chops_a_must]

Screw ZFX. Strip the dividend from this one.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

It is probably a better divvy than ZFX per SP price, for sure. Yet we all new it was coming a while back and their SP was stagnant and yesterday it was dumped hard.

I sold out of it weeks back at 6.50 out of sheer frustration, yesterdays action was a bonus.

Holding on for the divvy in the current market may see its worth stripped from you......seen that one happen before.

Todays trade is over for me, happy with the return in a day....right price I'd look at them again .

 

[Duckman#72]

Holding on for the divvy in the current market may see its worth stripped from you......seen that one happen before.

Yes it is a danger. But if your buying in the name of a superfund - the rate of return and franking credits are very tempting. It is around $6.70 this morning and going ex div (45c - 100% franking) tomorrow.

"Will it get savaged tomorrow?" is the big question.

Duckman

 

[Duckman#72]

So far so good. SP has settled at around $6.10 which is theoretically almost the exact "book" value after going ex div. What will nickel do from here?

Looking at the broker recommendations - they are all over the place. A few broking houses have them rated as a Strong Buy while a couple have them rated as a Strong Sell with the remainder spread in between. Someone's wrong!!!

Duckman

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

End of Today Ducy isn't it, holding at close>get divvy

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

So far so good. SP has settled at around $6.10 which is theoretically almost the exact



LOL, still no reply Duck. Well I took up a new entry in MRE today.....



The fact of the matter is if you enter MRE today.....you get the Dividend on a T3 basis.

Seems like youre logic was followed by the flock today........

 

[Out Too Soon]

End of Today Ducy isn't it, holding at close>get divvy

I dont know abt that freeball, ASX sight calls it XD already. IF it's not I've got abt 20 minutes to get in.

PS What's a T3 basis?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I've already explained it OTS, those buying days back paid to much for the dividend IMO, price action today confirms this .

But dont take my word for it........ give the share registry or Minara a quick buzz.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Gotcha, thanks Freeball I don't normally chase divs but it's easy to get caught up in others enthusiasm.

 

[Duckman#72]

End of Today Ducy isn't it, holding at close>get divvy

Hi Freeball

I rang Minara - ex div today. Yesterday was the day

Duckman

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Hi Ducks,

Great that you called Minara, what did you say to the lady from customer relations.........?.

"Hi my market depth shows XD but can I still get your dividends by record date on today's punt". I'm an experienced ASF punter so I'm just checking up on some info!.


Nice close for MRE with most of the volume above $6.15.

 

[Duckman#72]

Hi Ducks,

Great that you called Minara, what did you say to the lady from customer relations.........?.

Please tell me you're joking FreeBall!!!!

That's excellent that you picked up the dividends!!

In the future I will remember that you are able to buy shares that have gone ex div on the market as if they are cum div. Might get you to get them for me.

Duckman

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Ducks.....nothing wrong with a bit off piss taking occasionaly .....you seem to have missed the humor from the get go!.....

Back to MRE, pricey IMO short or long ATM.......but yep I will be getting some dividends.

This ones a bit like ZFX and others..... a big picture for many is coming to fruition, lost in the noise of the moment.

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

Minara shrugs off talk of next Xstrata target


28th March 2007, 9:15 WST

Minara Resources boss Peter Johnston played down talk yesterday that the WA nickel miner was next on Xstrata’s hitlist after its $5 billion friendly bid for LionOre Mining, as investors bet on a new wave of takeovers.


Minara led nickel stocks higher in the wake of Xstrata’s bid for the Canada-based miner, surging 36 ¢ to a record close of $7.33, which valued the former Anaconda Nickel at just over $3.4 billion.

Fellow WA producer Jubilee Mines also retouched its record high of $17.70 before closing 98 ¢ up at $17.32, while Kambalda miners Sally Malay Mining, Independence Group and Mincor Resources all posted solid gains.

LionOre’s Australian shares also rocketed $2.46 to $20.50 as investors speculated that Xstrata may still be trumped by a bigger rival such as BHP Billiton or Brazil’s CVRD. In Canada, LionOre last traded at $C19.28, a four per cent premium to Xstrata’s $C18.50 offer.

Analysts have long painted Minara as a logical target for Xstrata given the company is already 51 per centowned by Glencore International, the secretive Swiss trading house which floated Xstrata in 2002 and retains almost 40 per cent.

Glencore also owns a direct 40 per cent stake in Minara’s big Murrin Murrin nickel mine near Leonora, and markets all production from the mine.

Speaking from New Caledonia ”” where senior executives from most of the world’s nickel companies have gathered for the industry’s biggest annual conference ”” Mr Johnston refused to speculate on Glencore’s plans for its stake in Minara.

He also said there had been no recent contact between Minara and Xstrata. “None whatsoever ”” no contact, no talking,” Mr Johnston said.

“Obviously we have ongoing dialogue with Glencore … but I can’t comment on (Glencore’s intentions). That’s for others to speculate on.”

Mr Johnston said Glencore had supported Murrin Murrin for nine tough years, demonstrating the strength of the relationship between the two companies.

Now, after years of problems and debilitating losses, the mine is reaping windfall returns on the back of near record nickel prices above $US45,000 a tonne.

Minara booked a staggering profit of $388 million in calendar 2006 even though Murrin Murrin is still well below its nameplate capacity of 40,000 tonnes a year.

Mr Johnston said he expected the good times to continue.

Demand was showing no sign of slowing, while supplies would remain tight at least until 2009 when both the big Goro mine in New Caledonia and BHP’s Ravensthorpe mine should be onstream.

But even then, Goro would take at least three years to hit full steam.

“Chinese demand has not slowed … and there’s a definite supply side issue,” he said.

Hartleys’ analyst Andrew Rowell said he did not believe Xstrata’s bid for LionOre signalled that a fresh round of consolidation was imminent.

But investors were starting to realise “just how strong the (nickel) price is”.

“I think people are generally waking up to the fact that there’s going to be a lot of cash flow generated, especially in this quarter,” he said.

Mr Rowell said he would like to see more consolidation, but believed bidders would be reluctant to move while share prices were so high.
JOHN PHACEAS