MQG vs. BNB - which is best?

[Julia]

Re: MBL vs BNB- which is best?

There has been quite a deal of suggestion that MBL will split their business into two separate divisions. I don't know how much concern this may be causing investors but while there is uncertainty about what will happen there is usually an adverse effect on the SP.

Julia

 

[bug]

Re: MBL vs BNB- which is best?

MBL and BNB have taken almost similar approaches to establishing infrastructure funds - what are their respective chances of reaping future benefits?

There has been a lot of bad sentiment about rising interest rates and the sustainability of the specialist funds model. MBL has persistently revalued the funds to further borrow against their assets, with dividends paid to investors from the refinancing proceeds. Rising interest rates will make the cost of servicing that debt greater and physical operational revenues that can't sustain dividend payments will struggle to fund the debt.

To its credit, BNB has rejected this unsustainable model and BBI has paid dividends from operational income. MBL's appetite for fees and the above issues with its infrastructure business model are making the chances of new infrastructure funds less likely. MBL's tilt at the LSX was one of the first signs its infrastructure fund model had run its full course - everything was being called infrastructure even if it wasn't quite.

 

[Fab]

Re: MBL vs BNB - which is best?

Just wondering what is happening with MBL today. It looks to me like it did not trade. Can anyone explain ??

 

[doctorj]

Re: MBL vs BNB - which is best?

MBL's code has changed to MQB and I believe is now known as Macquarie Group.

 

[Fab]

Re: MBL vs BNB - which is best?

MBL's code has changed to MQB and I believe is now known as Macquarie Group.

Thanks I just entered the code in Commsec but it was not recognised ? Any idea when this code will be available

 

[doctorj]

Re: MBL vs BNB - which is best?

Sorry, that should have read MQG.

 

[fenghui]

Re: MBL vs BNB - which is best?

Sorry, that should have read MQG.

I have some MBL shares. Can I still use the code "MBL" to sell?

 

[doctorj]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

No idea - probably best to call your broker.

 

[Fab]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

Here is what ABN Amro says about MQG:

MQG’s update last week reaffirmed that the business is on track to deliver, however, Allan Moss's
resignation stole the headlines. This saw the MQG share price sell off quite aggressively, however we
believe Nick Moore is a solid and experienced replacement and the business has been left in good health.
With its strong financial position and global leadership in infrastructure, MQG looks like good value at
these levels, and is currently trading on a discount to international investment banks despite its stronger
growth pipeline and limited sub prime exposure. Strong support at $60, buy

I am tend to agree with this statement. It looks incredible to me that MQG is @ $60 at the moment.

 

[Fab]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

Here is more from ABNAMRO
Reaffirmation of guidance, resignation of CEO
MQG's reaffirmation of its profit guidance for FY08 was overshadowed by the announcement of Allan Moss's
resignation. As widely anticipated, Nicholas Moore will take over as CEO, although the timing will come as a
surprise and is perhaps unfortunate given the fragile state of equity markets. We do not believe that this handover
will materially impact the growth prospects of MQG.
Guidance
MQG has confirmed that the 2H08 result will be at least in line with the pcp (A$733m), implying a full-year result of
$1.8bn.ABN AMRO believe the risks are now to the upside given the 3Q08 result was up 13% on the pcp. In order
to miss current guidance, either performance would need to deteriorate dramatically or provisions be far higher than
management currently anticipate.
Investment view
While there are obvious concerns around MQG's indirect exposure to further market turmoil, we believe the group
should have a much lower correlation with global investment banks (95%). MQG has a diversified earnings stream,
as demonstrated in the strong 1H08 result. Furthermore, we believe MQG's increasing brand awareness and
leadership position in the infrastructure space will continue to drive growth in overseas earnings. ABN AMRO price
target is $90.

 

[hardcoremike]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

Fab. Just curious as to how u get those reports?
cheers.

 

[galey]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

BNB has far less exposure to the prime debacle then MQG so when things start to recover BNB should be in great position.

 

[Fab]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

Fab. Just curious as to how u get those reports?
cheers.

It is an ABN amro newsletter

Here are the headlines for today.

In Today’s Issue:
Global Market Action Scoreboard, Commentary, Resources
Aussie Market Action SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
ASX (ASXWZE) Reporting Preview – Volumes are still strong
MQG (MQGKZI) MINI Trading Buy – Update reaffirms guidance
WBC (WBCJZR) HOTS Investment Buy – Gail Force
Round Up Corner Companies reporting tomorrow – AMP,ASX,LEI

I can't believe that MQG is trading so low.

 

[Fab]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

It is an ABN amro newsletter

Here are the headlines for today.

In Today’s Issue:
Global Market Action Scoreboard, Commentary, Resources
Aussie Market Action SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
ASX (ASXWZE) Reporting Preview – Volumes are still strong
MQG (MQGKZI) MINI Trading Buy – Update reaffirms guidance
WBC (WBCJZR) HOTS Investment Buy – Gail Force
Round Up Corner Companies reporting tomorrow – AMP,ASX,LEI

I can't believe that MQG is trading so low.

Here is more info:

Toll free 1800 450 005
www.abnamro.com.au/warrants

 

[prana]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

not suprising. MBL was trading from $40 to $20 during the last NA recession - it happens, it's the market mate.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

I would tend to wait until they both bottom, all these broker recommendations seem optimistic in the extreme.

MQG has support at $50, its also a nice round number. If it holds at this level I'd wait a few months for it to trade sideways before entering. It may go further down, next support is $35.

BNB similarly has support at the $10 mark, also a nice round number.

It seems to be a given that these shares, once they stabilise are going to go up again, as they did in the bull market recently finished. This is unlikely.

Brokers make money from buying aand selling shares so it is natural for them to spruik shares.

Please look back on the MBL, MQG, BNB, AFG and other debt type share threads on ASF and look at the broker recommendations for these stocks over the last few years. Pure bunkum and selling of dreams.

Wait for the bottom and sideways trending before re entering these stocks. Charts for MQG and BNB attached.

There is no need to rush in, especially in a bear market with short selling of these products.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

I would tend to wait until they both bottom, all these broker recommendations seem optimistic in the extreme.

MQG has support at $50, its also a nice round number. If it holds at this level I'd wait a few months for it to trade sideways before entering. It may go further down, next support is $35.

BNB similarly has support at the $10 mark, also a nice round number.

It seems to be a given that these shares, once they stabilise are going to go up again, as they did in the bull market recently finished. This is unlikely.

Brokers make money from buying aand selling shares so it is natural for them to spruik shares.

Please look back on the MBL, MQG, BNB, AFG and other debt type share threads on ASF and look at the broker recommendations for these stocks over the last few years. Pure bunkum and selling of dreams.

Wait for the bottom and sideways trending before re entering these stocks. Charts for MQG and BNB attached.

There is no need to rush in, especially in a bear market with short selling of these products.

gg

We do indeed live in interesting times, $50 doesn't seem unrealisable for MQG and $15 for BNB, chartwise. Any funnymentalist views on this, I get lost in p/e s and forward valuations.

gg

 

[3MT]

Re: MQG vs BNB - which is best?

How do you fundamentally analyse bull market darlings like MQG and BNB in a bear situation (where debt is not so cheap, but no-one knows exactly how less so). (ie. you need lots of luck)

Forecasts are always questionable of course, but even more so in an environment where cost of funding is hard to price (relatively unpredictable) and availability of funds is lower (but once again hard to estimate how much lower because at the moment it seems to be sentimentally drivened) -- despite the money supply still at high levels.

The only consolation i see with MQG is that the company pays good money to employ some of the best minds to work on creating value for their shareholders. But at the same time, they are subjected to macro parameters which even the best may not be able to work around (at least for now).

I might trade both BNB and MQG (BNB being a good trade stock), but would never invest in them. Only because I think there are plenty other opportunities with more solid business models. I may forgo the specular returns, but I guess I am more risk adverse than the BNB/MQG shareholders. -- risk/reward thing.