Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MPL - Medibank Private

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Was late for broker firm offer, which closed after 30 minutes.

I applied for $100,000 and got about 12 or 13k as a pre -registration..

My dilemma now is whether to buy at a 10% premium or wait for the price to drop, or sell.

Any ideas would be welcome.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Was late for broker firm offer, which closed after 30 minutes.

I applied for $100,000 and got about 12 or 13k as a pre -registration..

My dilemma now is whether to buy at a 10% premium or wait for the price to drop, or sell.

Any ideas would be welcome.

gg
Click to expand...

Dear GG

Congratulations for getting good quota of MPL.
I have not seen the allotment policy. Looking into your figure of getting only 12 to 13% allotment it looks small investors were better off. I applied for $4000 as a trial and confused one and got $3750 worth allotment. That was without any pre-registration.
Any way surprise that you are seeking opinion whereas we all seek opinion from you.
My :2twocents looking into market movement tomorrow will give the opportunity to make or break. Dow collapsed 1.75% on Friday, poor employment rate, lower dollar all tend to turn ASX south.
If I have spare money, I will not hesitate to re-enter MPL. What is right price ? ASF does not allow so. I would say if fund managers put millions and millions on a price, what is wrong with Joe Bloggs to put the same price to buy more MPL.
Personally I will be under capital gain tax by using super fund so either will buy or stick to current token holding.

Money always smell good when rises unlike my AGO dived down by 80%.

Best wishes for a Merry Christmas and wonderful 2015
 
I am planning to get out of mpl, but I'm not sure whether to wait until after march 20th when it is added to the s&p indexes.

Can anyone offer insight into what effect this normally has on the SP, and how long the index funds take to add the stock to their portfolio?

Thanks
 
To answer my own question, in this case it had little to no effect in the short term, and what little research I found had similar outcomes
 
Looks like there might be some "life" left in this "dog".
There's an acceptable RR from the BO to the old high of 3.32.

mpl2704.PNG
 
Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/05/is-medibank-set-for-a-takeover-bid/

Is Medibank set for a takeover bid?
Cale Kalinowski | February 5, 2019.

Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) shares closed 3.9% higher today as media reports speculated that an offshore strategic buyer may be building a position in anticipation of an acquisition.

The Australian Financial Review Street Talk column reported that “there is an offshore strategic name that has quietly taken an interest in the $7.1 billion listed Australian health insurer, which may be the beginning of something larger”.

After almost forty years as a government enterprise, Medibank was floated on the ASX in 2014. Prior to its IPO, there had been speculation that the company would likely become the target of a takeover, particularly from an overseas bidder.

But when Medibank was privatised and publicly listed, the float came with the restriction that no one investor would be able to buy more than a 15% stake in the health insurer, effectively blocking potential takeovers.

This restriction lapses, however, on December 1 of this year, and an overseas insurer may already be eyeing off Australia’s second largest health insurer.

While Medibank shares aren’t as cheap as they were a couple months ago, they’re still in the lower end of their 12-month trading range and so the timing wouldn’t be bad for a potential buyer to be quietly building its stake. Australian laws designate that a potential acquirer only has to give a “substantial holder notice” to the target company and the ASX once it owns 5% of the target’s shares.

All this remains speculation, however, as there’s no way of pinpointing what truly drove Medibank’s share price gain today.

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Last substantial holding updates were

22/11/2018 4:10:48 PM Change in substantial holding

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20/11/2018 8:24:02 AM Becoming a substantial holder

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MPL showing a decent consolidation over the last 5 bars....lets see where it heads next.
 
I got the minimum amount of 1,000 shares during the original float back in Nov 2014. Did nothing and collected small amount of dividends.

Today, its Annual Report is out. Here the 4 page summary:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190822/pdf/447q6zm920h84d.pdf

$458.7m profit is fine (& flat).

I will still hold. I think Medibank At Home services will become more significant in future years. Now we think of MPL as just health insurance. Providing at in-home care for our growing and ageing population (although Medibank did say all Australians, it will be mainly the elderly population). This why I brought Zenitas last year before it was taken over .

"Looking forward to 2020, the Health Insurance business is positioned to grow, and we well placed to become a leader in the in-home care market."
Click to expand...

Medibank Health operating profit contributed only $22.1 million - very small contribution but I think it will grow. I can't remember when Medibank Private took over Garrison Health Services.

Am I hoping for too much and being too speccy over a small part of Medibank??? The general main part of Medibank Private - is it fighting against a downward general trend?
 
I got my facts wrong. Medibank's contract with Australian Defence Force via Garrison Health Services ceased on 30 June 2019. Home Support Services (HSS) was acquired last August 2018. This is the carrot to make customers stick with MPL.

MY BRAIN MUST BE TIRED! I am trying my best to discuss a stock with my very limited knowledge. @ROE, please come back. Anyone, please contribute something??
 
Faramir said:
I got my facts wrong. Medibank's contract with Australian Defence Force via Garrison Health Services ceased on 30 June 2019. Home Support Services (HSS) was acquired last August 2018. This is the carrot to make customers stick with MPL.

MY BRAIN MUST BE TIRED! I am trying my best to discuss a stock with my very limited knowledge. @ROE, please come back. Anyone, please contribute something??
Click to expand...

My only comment is that all ASX listed private medical insurers in Australia imo are stuffed.

They are dodos.

Industry funds give cheaper policies.

The young are unwilling to take out private insurance.

The old are bleeding them dry.

Public hospitals have upped their game over the last twenty years and if one is seriously unwell one is better off going public. There is better acute care and a legion of junior doctors available if an emergency occurs.

The menus are even approximating.

The public hospitals are open 24/7 for acute care while the private system is bereft of acute care.

The only reason imo to go private is if one abhors International Roast coffee which the public system sticks to like limpets

gg
 
Faramir said:
I got my facts wrong. Medibank's contract with Australian Defence Force via Garrison Health Services ceased on 30 June 2019. Home Support Services (HSS) was acquired last August 2018. This is the carrot to make customers stick with MPL.

MY BRAIN MUST BE TIRED! I am trying my best to discuss a stock with my very limited knowledge. @ROE, please come back. Anyone, please contribute something??
Click to expand...

Hold MPL mate, I think it is a take over target if there is any price pull back.
Late last year when it was low there was an usually large trade via an small brokerage firm, AFR reckon it is the US giant United Health is building a position under the radar to make a play once the locked up period expired December 2019.

I have a reasonable of holding entry around $2.60, I still hold
 
Hi @ROE
Although most private health insurance companies face an uphill situation, Medibank Private buck the trend by not declining rapidly and maintaining flat results.

The main reason for me to continue to hold is that I believe MPL could morph into a new type of company like the old Zenitas. While most people are looking at its "traditional" source of income (Insurance Premiums); Medibank Health is growing. I can see that one day, Medibank Health will make a significant contribution to the overall revenue.

As for a potential takeover - I am very unaware of it. Thank you for raising this possibility.
 
Thank you @ROE . I should subscribe to AFR. I do buy the physical paper each Saturday for the Smart Investors section.

Now, there are two reasons for me to hold MPL. (Third reason, dividends doesn’t count due to my small holding).

MPL, you are off my culling list. You are safe for now.
 
The ASX announcement today was disappointing

Medibank reported higher than expected claims since the start of the FY20 financial year, which has resulted in a $21 million under provision from the group’s 30 June 2019 claims reserve.

Medibank’s actual 2.4% underlying claims growth per policy unit in FY19 is an increase from the 2.0% reported. Medibank is now forecasting this trend increase in claims per policy unit in 2H 2019 to continue in FY20.

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934
 

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Apparently there has been a big jump in the cost of protheses, so we can expect a jump in premiums, so what's new.:D
 
sptrawler said:
Apparently there has been a big jump in the cost of protheses, so we can expect a jump in premiums, so what's new.:D
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The problem for MPL is that there is a lot of political pressure to limit premium increases. The current situation looks difficult for them.

I've held some since the float and sold out today.
 
Ferret said:
The problem for MPL is that there is a lot of political pressure to limit premium increases. The current situation looks difficult for them.

I've held some since the float and sold out today.
Click to expand...
Still a tidy 50% profit.:xyxthumbs
I should give it some thought, I haven't changed them over from issuer sponsored yet, talk about being slack.
 

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