Thanks for the response. It is great to see you understand and are comfortable with your risk appetite and know the in's and out's of your system and its application. That's so important. As Radge often says....it's not so much about timing the market, it's more about time in the market. So with youth on your side you can take the risk for the greater return. Old farts like me need to adopted a slightly more conservative approachHey mate. Yea, I can't talk too much about the specifics given the code was bought. But i don't have a particular strategy for the drawdowns intra-month. If I had a market crash like March/April last year, it would be a discretionary intervention to withdraw the money to at least avoid the 30-40% hit to the market. But I removed index filter that comes standard with the code, and as you mentioned the ASX300 is more volatile. Radge's code is not meant to be run on the ASX300, which is an important distinction I like to make to others. I am young enough, and acquainted with my own risk tolerance, to know that this is something I can handle. My CAGR is also higher because of this. One downside I found with the defaults of the code is that you can be out of the market for several months at a time. This is a protective measure, obviously, but it also meant the system missed out on the rebound. I am only doing month-end explores but I am also avoiding checking in on it too much during the month (to avoid that burning want to interfere with the code). Riskier? Yes, definitely. But for the moment I can deal. I have had times that I've bought and all is well, and all of those gains (plus the month before) lost in the weekly chop. At least with a superaccount I have my employers contributions that soften the blow (and allow for greater compounding, though this is taken into account with my calcuations of returns).
Those traders you spoke to who trade monthly probably have a good idea of whats going on. They probably have smaller drawdowns than me, though perhaps there CAGR isn't as high. The ASX50 also has high liquidity and ability to absorb large positions. When my system gains more capital, I intend on expanding from 10 positions to 20. I found the DD is reduce with more positions, and the returns are smoothed out. I believe this is because its unlikely all 20 positions are going to have a bad week, whereas just having 3-5 positions with a bad week in a portfolio of 10, can greatly impact the performance. This system is meant to be relatively hands-off, simple, and long-term focused. I am open to reducing the exposure to the smaller indexes (ASX50, ASX100, or ASX200), but that will come at a time when I want to reduce my risk. I have also thought that by trading a portfolio with momentum, in the ASX50 and 10-20 positions, is more like a high-beta type strategy. Certainly useful for many.
Nice work ? is that 14.6% return on only closed positions or is it the combination of closed and open. How invested is your system at the moment ?Month 11
Beginning of month 11! I do love the EOM to check on this system. Still behind the XKO which is disappointing. The success of the XKO still surprises me as those are great returns. I am still happy with my 14.6% return thus far, 17.5% yearly return (and if my math is correct, 1.33 sharpe). Such a simple strategy, requires a lot of patients, but it's doing well. I've discussed its shortfalls in this thread, but I still think if you want to be hands-off it is the way to go.
I was hoping to get approx 20-25% return/yr. I may get to 20%. On a super account, I think that is a pretty good ROI. Not beating the index but I am still happy with what I have. This strategy has also tested better with more positions, so once it grows some more I will be able to smooth out its equity curve.
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Hi Warr,I also sold part of my best position as it had grown to 15% of my portfolio, so a re-balancing was needed
Hi Warr,
Is rebalancing part of the system? If so have you tried not rebalancing, does it improve or degrade performance?
Hi Warr,But i don't have a particular strategy for the drawdowns intra-month. If I had a market crash like March/April last year, it would be a discretionary intervention to withdraw the money to at least avoid the 30-40% hit to the market
Thanks @Warr87.
It's interesting that you quote the average returns and DD over only 5 years when this is a monthly strategy. I understand that you can't and won't post backtest results here, and that's cool - no problem. However, I am slightly concerned that you are quoting average backtest results over such a short backtest period using a monthly system. Not a very large sample size.
Nicks results which can be seen here, show a CAGR of 18.54% and a MaxDD of 28.30% over a 20+ year period and this is using the index filter and the ASX100 constituents. You are not using an index filter and are using the ASX300 constituents. This surely would have to increase both CAGR and MaxDD over 20+ years.
Even if you can't post the results here, I hope you have backtested your amended system to see what the CAGR and MaxDD would be over say.. 20+ years and not just 5 years. This is going to give you a much better look into the performance of your system as you would have been holding through the whole GFC since you are no longer using an index filter.
Nevertheless, good luck.
you tell us what your expected average, mininum range and maximum range are for annual return
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