MON - Monarch Gold Mining

[Lucky_Country]

Largest independent land holding around Kalgoorlie.
Micheal Kiernan in charge Andrew Forrest a major shareholder.
Plant and resources in place looks like a great buy

 

[Busylion]

Nice company but requires patience.

Not many people discuss it here.

 

[Sean K]

Has some significant shareholders. Good interest from the Instos.

2.4m oz au resourse base, but across the three projects. All seem to be open and there's been some good additional drill results, but their target 500K oz au per year seems very ambitious to me considering the historical production from the three regions.

AIM listing 2H 2006, what's happened to that?

Might have found a bottom around $0.225, but it's been all down hill for 12 months really. Will be more interesting when it gets back to $0.28/30. Probably breaking up through that level.

Worth watching. Cheers.

 

[Sean K]

Another thing that is potentially good about the company at the moment, is that they are in a dip in the 'value curve' which occurs during the FS/BFS stage. After financing a company sp usually appreciates during development. Might be in that dip now.

 

[Sean K]

And what's the latest on the Tanami merger? TAM are having some issues with their Coyote Project treatment plant. (I imaging this is the project MON are after - or maybe it's the tenaments and to expand out of WA)

TAM is looking pitiful at the moment. Why go there?!!! Bottom pickers end up with dirty fingers.

 

[Busylion]

Hi Kennas,

Thanks for so many replies.

The chart looks nice. Will the share price re-test the 22c?

The Tenami merger is very slow. TAM has a number of problems, production ramping problem (VAT leach circuit. read the latest announcement on Friday), grade control, auction of the forfeited Contributing shares (if other company bought a total of 10% or more (from of the auctioned shares and plus on market purchase, a blocking stake of 10% could stop the take over of MON), to name a few.

TAM also does not need to merge with MON. TAM will have about 21m if the auctioned price for the contributing shares is 15c. Details are given below:

With $6.18 m at the end of last quarter, $2.5m from placement to MON, auction proceed of the confiscated TAMCA shares (with the auction price of 10c, it will give TAM a total of $8.5m; and with auction price of 20c, TAM will get $17m. If we assume the auctioned price is at 15c (mid price between 10c and 20c), TAM will get $12.75m). So a total of $21.75 m will provide all expenses for the non production period for a very long time. A helping hand from other company may not be required. On the other hand if TAM merges with MON or other company, they will be a bigger company and possibly becomes a stronger company due to some synergies.

I agreed with you that MON should not consider M&A with TAM. However, Michael Kiernan (MK) is a friend of TAM management (Gary Comb [GC] is the MD of JML. CSM own about 33% of JML. MK was CEO/MD of CSM before when JML was having the right issue at 18c). MON could develop and produce at Davyhurst mine @ 100k to 125k per annum from July 2007. Minjar mine can produce at 50 to 75k by end of 2007. Bellevue can start production in 2008. Further drilling around Davyhurst Project will give extra resource so the operation can be extended beyond 2 years (currently) and many targets have been identified (refer to 29 August 2006 announcement for more details). So one of the ways to achieve 500k production per year for MON is to use friendly take-over (taking over of TAM now. It is not finalized yet). The other way is to find more resources around its exiting 3 projects and produce more gold.

Listing AIM will be delayed till M&A with TAM is finalised.

M&A with TAM will take at least 3 months (either via [1] scheme of arrangement. An indepedent report need to be prepared, share holder & court approval are required) or [2] standard take over (bid statement and target statement will also be prepared).


I hope the above help to answer some of your queries on MON.

Cheers & regards,

Busy Lion

 

[nizar]

The chart looks nice.

Are we looking at the same chart?

 

[Busylion]

Are we looking at the same chart?

yes. using Kennas charts for MON & TAM.

any comment for the next target? do you have other charts for them?

Cheers

BL

 

[Lucky_Country]

100,000 oz production by July 07 without TAM so can see a sp of around $1 in the near future and anticipating more drilling results b4 xmas

 

[Busylion]

100,000 oz production by July 07 without TAM so can see a sp of around $1 in the near future and anticipating more drilling results b4 xmas

What do you mean "the short term"? Does your "short term" mean up to 3 months in the future”?

IMHO, $1 in the short term is possible but the probability of its occurring is very remote. The mining at Davyhurst has not started yet and commissioning / production ramp up MAY also incur problems (eg TAM is having it now). Hopefully MON is luckier than TAM and everything is as planned for the July 2007 production (ie no delay).

I worry the merger with TAM may create delay of Davyhurst production and distraction to the MON management and more dilutions (assume more shares will be issued to TAM share holders for the take over unless it is fully debt funded).

Cheers,
BL

 

[tech/a]

The chart looks nice

Nice colors, dont mind the font either.

 

[Novski]

Nice slope for skiing too

 

[Busylion]

Nice slope for skiing too

Downslope is good for skiing. It may not be the right time for entry though.

Cheers & regards,

BL

 

[Lucky_Country]

Well even if more shares are issued too complete the merger it means that production may double by July with the merger

What do you mean "the short term? Does your "short term" mean up to 3 months in the future”?

IMHO, $1 in the short term is possible but the probability of its occurring is very remote. The mining at Davyhurst has not started yet and commissioning / production ramp up MAY also incur problems (eg TAM is having it now). Hopefully MON is luckier than TAM and everything is as planned for the July 2007 production (ie no delay).

I worry the merger with TAM may create delay of Davyhurst production and distraction to the MON management and more dilutions (assume more shares will be issued to TAM share holders for the take over unless it is fully debt funded).

Cheers,
BL

 

[Sean K]

Hi Kennas,

Thanks for so many replies.

The chart looks nice. Will the share price re-test the 22c?

Thanks for the additional info.

Test $0.22? Up or down? I actually think it's more likely to go up now. It's looking like the bottom of a big cup, or rounded bottom.

Still not sure of the value of TAM. Like to connections with CSM and JML. Both companies I'm interested in as possible M&A work. JML has the upside. Perhaps we will see a MON/TAM/JML/CSM entity in the future?

 

[Busylion]

Thanks for the additional info.

Test $0.22? Up or down? I actually think it's more likely to go up now. It's looking like the bottom of a big cup, or rounded bottom.

Still not sure of the value of TAM. Like to connections with CSM and JML. Both companies I'm interested in as possible M&A work. JML has the upside. Perhaps we will see a MON/TAM/JML/CSM entity in the future?

23c is one of the critical prices for MON because it was the price for the recent share placements to instututions. so it is interesting to know whether instoes still want to supports or buy MON at this price.

The value of TAM will be known on 7 th December 2006 when confisticated 81 million of TAMCA will re auctioned. For further details, refer to 1 December 2006 announcement. If you are in Perth, you could attend the auction at the Perth stock.

Cheers,
BL

 

[Sean K]

Well MON and TAM has ceased merger discussions so you can forget that as a consideration.

 

[Lucky_Country]

TAM merger off may be a good thing at the present time.
MON production for July 07 still on track.
Drilling results out within 2 weeks

 

[Busylion]

There is NO guarantee that Davyhurst 1.2mtpa mill refurbishment, mining and production will not be delayed considering so there are many side activities (TAM and looking for other M&A) and challenges listed below.

More capital raising (placement or debt funding or other means) will be required considering the following facts:

[1] Davyhurst Gold mill refurbishment will require at least $4.5m and lead time at least 4 months.

[2] Minjar Gold mill refurbishment will require $1m and 1 month lead time

[3] $6 m is allocated for Davyhurst & Minjar drilling for the next 12 months.

[4] Poorly spent $2.5 m for 12.5m shares at 20c each for TAM shares when MON started the merger discussion.

[a] Total funds required is at least $14m {sum of [1], [2], [3] and [4]} excluding other operation & running business cost, (salary etc).

[4] Cash at the end of September quarter 2006 is $4.25m

[5] Shares Placement on 10 November 2006 raised $4.6m

Total cash is about $8.85m (sum of [4] and [5]).

Therefore for the next 12 months, extra funding or capital of at least $ 5.15m {[a] –} is required.

MON has appointed Bemex Corporation to refurbish the Davyhurst mill. Hopefully MON has better lucks than TAM. Cross your fingers and prayed. Read the TAM Announcement below.

"The Directors of Tanami Gold NL provide the following update on the Coyote Gold Project. Construction of the Coyote treatment plant was completed late September 2006. Although the crushing and milling circuit is commissioned, the gravity, circuit and wet plant including the carbonin-pulp (CIP) circuit, vat leaching process and elution/gold room circuits are behind schedule and have not yet been fully commissioned by BeMeX Corporation Pty Ltd (BeMeX)"

Consequently, forecast gold production has been delayed and a complete ore grade reconciliation of tonnes treated to date has not been possible.

Due to these delays and in order to minimise mining costs until the treatment plant is fully operational and gold production increases, the open pit mining operations have been suspended. Additional technical people have been committed to the Project to assist with commissioning all components of the treatment process including the gravity, CIP and Vat leach circuits. The Company is in discussions with BeMeX


For further details read the full TAM announcement on 23 October 2006.

As always, DYOR. Good lucks for shareholders.

Cheers & regards,

BL

 

[Knobby22]

Re: MON, this puppy needs more money and Luck

Isn't that Bemax BMX?