MMS - McMillan Shakespeare

[notting]

I think suggesting someone has a plan is as nice as you can get.
I'd be planning to go short/sell with a stop around 14.

 

[skc]

Not sure there will be much more information in the AGM, the main purpose of the AGM is to present the past financial year's results.

I know what the announcement said, I was expressing my opinion about what will actually revealed and when, sorry if it wasnt clear I was presenting my point of view.

I just wanted to make sure you read the line about further update at AGM - it was hiding at the end of slide 23.

 

[galumay]

I just wanted to make sure you read the line about further update at AGM - it was hiding at the end of slide 23.

Thanks, I had read it. I remain skeptical about the likelihood of there being any meaningful information to present in such a short time. As I said I reckon it will be the half yearly report before we see much real guidance.

 

[craft]

Thanks, I had read it. I remain skeptical about the likelihood of there being any meaningful information to present in such a short time. As I said I reckon it will be the half yearly report before we see much real guidance.

If they don’t say anything – that will say a lot.

In the phone hook up indication was given that the final dividend would be considered at the next board meeting now the election is out of the way and I suspect announced at the AGM also if they decide to pay one – Action on cash also talks loud.

We know (and they know) we are going to get numbers on paper at the half yearly. Doubt that we will be in total suspense as to what they are going to be by the time they are delivered.

It may be that customer confidence in novated leases has to be rebuilt or it may be there is pent up demand from over the period in which case revenue catch up will be much easier. We already know expenses haven’t been trimmed much – they even paid average commission over the nil revenue time. So people should be expecting revenue shortfall to flow straight to the bottom line. Whether there is 8-9-10-11 months of trend revenue in the FY14 year is really quite insignificant to a long term holder, the reason is known and one off. Shorter term holders may be less relaxed about the outcome.
How FY15 is shaping up against the long term trend is more important – Has the legislative uncertainty impacted permanently their customer buying decisions and hence the revenue stream?

My perspective is that a de-rating of the earnings multiple because of legislative risk being at the forefront of people’s mind is a good thing. But if revenue is impacted long term by the uncertainty – that’s a whole different ball game. I suspect uncertainty actually plays out as employees being keener to stitch up the benefits for fear of missing out, however there may be more reluctance on the part of employers to go to the trouble of putting salary sacrifice programs in place because of the uncertainty.

 

[FxTrader]

My perspective is that a de-rating of the earnings multiple because of legislative risk being at the forefront of people’s mind is a good thing. But if revenue is impacted long term by the uncertainty – that’s a whole different ball game. I suspect uncertainty actually plays out as employees being keener to stitch up the benefits for fear of missing out, however there may be more reluctance on the part of employers to go to the trouble of putting salary sacrifice programs in place because of the uncertainty.

The MMS report did indicate the following "Employers who have shut programs down (minority but some large companies) need to agree to restart"

I would imagine, given how popular such packaging has been with employees in the past, that there would be considerable pressure applied to once again offer this packing option for the "minority" of employers who have removed vehicle lease salary packaging. The "uncertainty" factor around the legislation seems misplaced with the probablility of a 2 term Liberal government high - that's 6 years of certainty IMO.

 

[tech/a]

I think suggesting someone has a plan is as nice as you can get.
I'd be planning to go short/sell with a stop around 14.

One clear plan.

If they don’t say anything – that will say a lot.

In the phone hook up indication was given that the final dividend would be considered at the next board meeting now the election is out of the way and I suspect announced at the AGM also if they decide to pay one – Action on cash also talks loud.

We know (and they know) we are going to get numbers on paper at the half yearly. Doubt that we will be in total suspense as to what they are going to be by the time they are delivered.

It may be that customer confidence in novated leases has to be rebuilt or it may be there is pent up demand from over the period in which case revenue catch up will be much easier. We already know expenses haven’t been trimmed much – they even paid average commission over the nil revenue time. So people should be expecting revenue shortfall to flow straight to the bottom line. Whether there is 8-9-10-11 months of trend revenue in the FY14 year is really quite insignificant to a long term holder, the reason is known and one off. Shorter term holders may be less relaxed about the outcome.
How FY15 is shaping up against the long term trend is more important – Has the legislative uncertainty impacted permanently their customer buying decisions and hence the revenue stream?

My perspective is that a de-rating of the earnings multiple because of legislative risk being at the forefront of people’s mind is a good thing. But if revenue is impacted long term by the uncertainty – that’s a whole different ball game. I suspect uncertainty actually plays out as employees being keener to stitch up the benefits for fear of missing out, however there may be more reluctance on the part of employers to go to the trouble of putting salary sacrifice programs in place because of the uncertainty.

Much discussion.
So from your view point would you
(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?
(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?
(3) Buy more on any pull back?
(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.
(5) Other.---What?

The MMS report did indicate the following "Employers who have shut programs down (minority but some large companies) need to agree to restart"

I would imagine, given how popular such packaging has been with employees in the past, that there would be considerable pressure applied to once again offer this packing option for the "minority" of employers who have removed vehicle lease salary packaging. The "uncertainty" factor around the legislation seems misplaced with the probablility of a 2 term Liberal government high - that's 6 years of certainty IMO.

Much discussion.
So from your view point would you
(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?
(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?
(3) Buy more on any pull back?
(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.
(5) Other.---What?

 

[FxTrader]

Much discussion.
So from your view point would you...

(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?
Only if one planned to hold at least 6 months. This really depends on why the stock was purchased to begin with.

(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?
If you purchased MMS to flip it for a quick profit, that opportunity is gone. If sitting on a large profit, the prospects look very encouraging, hold. Expecting sideways drift from here until another trading update from MMS at the AGM.

(3) Buy more on any pull back?
Depends on magnitude. Oversold is anything under $11 IMO.

(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.
And what would that be?

(5) Other.---What?
MMS is no longer a short term trading opportunity except perhaps after a large pullback.

 

[tech/a]

(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?
Only if one planned to hold at least 6 months. This really depends on why the stock was purchased to begin with.

(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?
If you purchased MMS to flip it for a quick profit, that opportunity is gone. If sitting on a large profit, the prospects look very encouraging, hold. Expecting sideways drift from here until another trading update from MMS at the AGM.

(3) Buy more on any pull back?
Depends on magnitude. Oversold is anything under $11 IMO.

(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.
And what would that be?

(5) Other.---What?
MMS is no longer a short term trading opportunity except perhaps after a large pullback.

Thanks
Makes sense.

 

[galumay]

One clear plan.
Much discussion.
So from your view point would you
(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?
(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?
(3) Buy more on any pull back?
(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.
(5) Other.---What?

I concur with what Craft said about MMS, my plan is clear, I bought at under $9 as a spec bet on the election, the pre election recovery was so strong, the commitment that came from the Libs so strong, and then the election result has meant I have reframed the entry as a long term investment hold and 'moved' MMS from my spec portfolio into my investment one.

1) N/R I would not have bought above $13
2) No happy with my entry
3) Unlikely, it needs very compelling circumstances for me to consider averaging down.
4) One of my key assessments for holding a share, I ask myself "can the money be put to better use somewhere else" Currently the answer is I can't find a better home for the money invested.
5) Reassess after AGM, Half Yearly Report & after holding for 12 months.

 

[tech/a]

To Buy at under $9 you'd have had to have bought it before Gillard announced the election date.

 

[craft]

Much discussion.
So from your view point would you
(1) Hold if you had bought at $13 and above?

N/A

As background - my last purchase was 1/10/08 average holding cost is low $2. It has repaid itself and more in dividends and I have sold some down at higher prices because of portfolio diversity rules.

above $13 for me would only be a trading entry and I haven’t discussed any of my trading in MMS here and won’t because of the existence of some who are self proclaimed guru’s that I have no respect for, not to mention differing experience on what works.

(2) Sell and look for a re entry at a better price?

Not the Investment holding – did put in place arrangements to hedge if necessary. Only utilised in in separate account to facilitate short trades Never finished up hedging in account where MMS investment sits.

(3) Buy more on any pull back?

Yep if the price is right and fits within portfolio exposure rules.

(4) Sell and look for a better prospect.

Always evaluating that as an opportunity.

(5) Other.---What?

Other. Spend a large amount of time naval gazing about living with tail risk in an overall investment portfolio context.

 

[McCoy Pauley]

To Buy at under $9 you'd have had to have bought it before Gillard announced the election date.

I would have thought you meant Rudd, given it was Bowen as treasurer who announced the proposed changes to FBT laws with Rudd as the PM in late July.

 

[galumay]

To Buy at under $9 you'd have had to have bought it before Gillard announced the election date.

No, Rudd was already PM by then, it may have been before he announced the actual date, but we knew it was coming.
I bought on the 30th of July at $8.85

 

[odds-on]

above $13 for me would only be a trading entry and I haven’t discussed any of my trading in MMS here and won’t because of the existence of some who are self proclaimed guru’s that I have no respect for, not to mention differing experience on what works.

Hi Craft,

If you ever feel the inclination, I (and maybe others) would appreciate you starting a thread on your trading methods. It would be interesting reading, just like finding out the long-term investment strategies of the day traders on ASF (I definitely would like to read Trembling Hand's guide to Strategic Asset Allocation).

No worries, if you are not interested.

Cheers

 

[doof69]

NAB sold a chunk of shares. What could this mean for the share price

 

[db94]

Good news. According to this, car leasing companies have started re-hiring after firing staff when Rudd announced the FBT tax proposal. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...-lease-companies/story-fn59niix-1226718891627

 

[db94]

been pretty much all down hill since the election and presentation of annual results. Perhaps it was over bid? or investors arent liking the uncertainty regarding the future of MMS

 

[tech/a]

Notting

Best plan around

 

[ROE]

been pretty much all down hill since the election and presentation of annual results. Perhaps it was over bid? or investors arent liking the uncertainty regarding the future of MMS

EPS 84c? you paying for a grow stock at $12-$13 with regulation uncertainty ...

This year EPS will surely be lower than 84c so you paying an even higher price

when the traders made their profit from a quick election rush
and someone looking to buy in for long term investment and discount
for regulation uncertainty and various scenario I reckon they wont buy at this price.

just my 2c

 

[FxTrader]

been pretty much all down hill since the election and presentation of annual results. Perhaps it was over bid? or investors arent liking the uncertainty regarding the future of MMS

Speculative short term trading was driving price action recently. Many "investors" instead of traders would be holding their position instead of taking profits. I note the following from an article in the Age...

Danny Wilson, director of leasing company NLC - one of the top five salary package providers for new cars in Australia - said his firm had rehired 23 of the 72 staff stood down after Labor's divisive announcement.

''We started 23 people back at work this week and we'll keep an eye on demand, and if that keeps getting stronger we'll keep improving our staffing levels,'' he said.

''We saw sales start to return almost immediately after the election - even from the Monday or Tuesday.

''We're below what we're normally projected to be at this time but I think we're trending towards that 75 to 80 per cent mark. In terms of the sales levels, it does take some time for those to work through your system, but in terms of our inquiry levels, we're up to that 75 per cent mark.''

http://www.theage.com.au/business/fbt-uturn-buoys-leasing-sector-20130917-2tx5y.html

75 to 80% of inquiry volume has returned to NLC already with a similar result likely for MMS. Projections of a slow return to salary packaged vehicles were always going to be wrong given the popularity and generosity of this perk.