MMS - McMillan Shakespeare

[skc]

So much panic selling. Nothing has changed. I'll be holding a little while longer now.

They're announcing annual results tomorrow morning.

The price went from $6.50 to $14 so a $2 retracement is hardly panic selling.

Annual results have already been announced. They are having a conference call to discuss the results. But the truth is no one cares about the past result... every wants to know the level of damage incurred in the last few months, and how are the novated lease enquiries recovering this week.

Yeah so much panic. I must admit I did not expect this. Divy is up soon too isn't it???

They have already announced that there is no final dividend for FY13.

 

[tech/a]

The price went from $6.50 to $14 so a $2 retracement is hardly panic selling.

I guess it is if you bought at close to $14!

 

[peter2]

It would have been nice for price to "fill the gap" but it looks like it's not ready.

After the panic low there is a nice symmetrical 5-wave swing that seems to have terminated in the expected 50-62% retracement zone of the prior panic move down. That's two observations that indicate this move up may have paused. Indications were visible in the chart to tighten your trailing sell exit and protect profits.

I hope that this chart encourages short term gamblers to learn a little about market structure in order to plan their trades with known risk and probable rewards.

 

[galumay]

I hope that this chart encourages short term gamblers to learn a little about market structure in order to plan their trades with known risk and probable rewards.

I dont use charts and am not a technical analysist so it means nothing to me, but I would suggest that those that think it was a good move to buy just before the election at around $13 are perhaps unlikely to learn from charts or anything else!

Given that the price had already recovered over 50% from the mis pricing by the market of $7-$8 its hard to imagine there was much upside from an election that had a virtually pre-detirmined result.

 

[db94]

Trailing stop of 5% is fine.

But wouldn't it be handy to be able to recognise
supply and lack of demand so you can be pretty sure your
seeing a reversal rather than a corrective move in an up trend?

What will you do if price rises to your pre determined 5%
stop level?
Sell out or Hold?

This is why I like to watch during the day to see how the stock is going. I guess, IMO, it'd depend on the situation on what I'd do. I'd look for support and resistance on the charts and on the DOM ladder. Then make a decision.

In hindsight it was a bad idea and a tough lesson learned. I've got a trading plan from another forum and will work through that. I guess this is all a part of being a beginner.

Back on MMS, the presentation has been released (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130910/pdf/42j8phqhvfgwr0.pdf) on the FY13 results. Fair of uncertainty conveyed in report

 

[VSntchr]

A little bit of scuttlebutt - I have some colleagues who were about to sign up for novated leases just prior to the announcement.
Since the coalition victory over the weekend they have told me that SG Fleet has been all over them like a rash to get things going - all systems go. The only thing lagging is the re-acceptance of the employer.

 

[FxTrader]

Back on MMS, the presentation has been released (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130910/pdf/42j8phqhvfgwr0.pdf) on the FY13 results. Fair of uncertainty conveyed in report

Actually the market is responding to the report quite favourably. I find it mildly amusing that chartists are weighing in here suggesting that the recent pullback was in any way predictable based on chart patterns. The psychology and momentum of the recent sell down was most likely the herd mentality of pre-election speculators dumping their MMS position for fear their profits were evaporating. Given the lack of any clear guidance from MMS, this stock could drift sideways in a range for months and trying to chart trade it futile at best. Updates on trading results from MMS will drive the price from here.

 

[tech/a]

I find it mildly amusing that chartists are weighing in here suggesting that the recent pullback was in any way predictable based on chart patterns

.

But wouldn't it be handy to be able to recognise
supply and lack of demand so you can be pretty sure your
seeing a reversal rather than a corrective move in an up trend?

More anticipation than prediction. Difference being is there is no start or end point.
Only an anticipation of price action going forward. Made possible by reading the chart---more Volume and range and background than a "Pattern"

EG
I anticipate a test of the recent high. Price range and volume during this test will determine further anticipation of price.

Hence the question.

What will you do if price rises to your pre determined 5%
stop level?
Sell out or Hold?

Without an answer to this your basically buy and holding. As you have pointed out MMS could do nothing for months.
Is holding this position for months sound investment practice---albeit it in "Anticipation "of a positive announcement.

 

[FxTrader]

What will you do if price rises to your predetermined 5% stop level? Sell out or Hold? Without an answer to this your basically buy and holding. As you have pointed out MMS could do nothing for months.

With respect to equities I consider myself a value investor. Hence my primary concern is business performance over time. The only time I sell is when the market wants to pay me a large premium price (at least +20% over valuation) or business fundamentals are declining with little prospect of improvement in the near term.

I don't trade equities on technicals because the leverage stinks. If I have a technical strat that creates positive expectancy then I trade it on the Forex spot market at 500:1 leverage. Equity options are an alternative but offer much lower leverage and required liquidity is only available on a small number of ETOs.

Is holding this position for months sound investment practice---albeit it in "Anticipation "of a positive announcement.

With respect to anticipation, one must consider what Mr. Market will pay for MMS if BAU returns in the next quarter. Since the probability of such an outcome is high, my expectancy is based more on probability than "anticipation". Time will tell if the decision to hold at this time was "sound".

 

[tech/a]

My questions were/are generic more than poster specific.
Thanks for your reply though.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I don't trade equities on technicals because the leverage stinks. If I have a technical strat that creates positive expectancy then I trade it on the Forex spot market at 500:1 leverage. Equity options are an alternative but offer much lower leverage and required liquidity is only available on a small number of ETOs.

I would be very interested to see any stats for a system that can survive 500:1 leverage.

 

[db94]

Actually the market is responding to the report quite favourably. I find it mildly amusing that chartists are weighing in here suggesting that the recent pullback was in any way predictable based on chart patterns. The psychology and momentum of the recent sell down was most likely the herd mentality of pre-election speculators dumping their MMS position for fear their profits were evaporating. Given the lack of any clear guidance from MMS, this stock could drift sideways in a range for months and trying to chart trade it futile at best. Updates on trading results from MMS will drive the price from here.

This was why I decided to hold my position and not sell yesterday; needless to say though, I didn't get much sleep last night lol. The joys of being a rookie. Listening to the presentation this morning it sounds like the AGM will be very very important - giving more guidance as to the damage done and outlook into the future.

 

[skc]

I would be very interested to see any stats for a system that can survive 500:1 leverage.

The same as your stats, x500.

 

[galumay]

This was why I decided to hold my position and not sell yesterday; needless to say though, I didn't get much sleep last night lol. The joys of being a rookie. Listening to the presentation this morning it sounds like the AGM will be very very important - giving more guidance as to the damage done and outlook into the future.

Not sure there will be much more information in the AGM, the main purpose of the AGM is to present the past financial year's results.

I will not be surprised if there is little meaningful news until the half yearly results at the start of next year, by then the real impact will be reflected in the results and we should also be able to gauge the extent of the recovery.

 

[skc]

Not sure there will be much more information in the AGM, the main purpose of the AGM is to present the past financial year's results.

I will not be surprised if there is little meaningful news until the half yearly results at the start of next year, by then the real impact will be reflected in the results and we should also be able to gauge the extent of the recovery.

Read the announcement. It said there will be an update at AGM.

Market updates at AGM make great trading opportunities for many stocks...

 

[tech/a]

This was why I decided to hold my position and not sell yesterday; needless to say though, I didn't get much sleep last night lol. The joys of being a rookie. Listening to the presentation this morning it sounds like the AGM will be very very important - giving more guidance as to the damage done and outlook into the future.

When this turns back around in a day or two
What's your plan?
Will this be renewed panic selling?

 

[craft]

This was why I decided to hold my position and not sell yesterday; needless to say though, I didn't get much sleep last night lol. The joys of being a rookie. Listening to the presentation this morning it sounds like the AGM will be very very important - giving more guidance as to the damage done and outlook into the future.

Lets not destroy a stock thread here guys.

DB94 – Information flow does not suit what I think is your time frame.

Peter2,s post below is a more risk controlled approach unless you are prepared for long time frames and large price movements.

 

[galumay]

Read the announcement. It said there will be an update at AGM.

I know what the announcement said, I was expressing my opinion about what will actually revealed and when, sorry if it wasnt clear I was presenting my point of view.

 

[tech/a]

Lets not destroy a stock thread here guys.

Let me get this right then

Any discussion which isn't directly related to the Fundamentals of the stock are considered off the rails and could destroy the "'Stock" Thread?

So speculation as to the reason why it fell--rises--stays steady
--Any chart reading insight
--Any questioning of peoples methodology
could be construed as damaging?

 

[craft]

Let me get this right then

Any discussion which isn't directly related to the Fundamentals of the stock are considered off the rails and could destroy the "'Stock" Thread?

So speculation as to the reason why it fell--rises--stays steady
--Any chart reading insight
--Any questioning of peoples methodology
could be construed as damaging?

No not at all.

What I meant was keep it nice.

Might help if everybody does a double take on the assumptions they read into other peoples posts before firing back a defence/retaliation.

I'm suggesting harmony not uniformity.