MMN - Macmin Silver
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Silver is running
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi
London Fix Historical silver - result
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.cgi
London Fix Historical silver - result
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crackaton said:
They used to say the real stuff but times are changing and mining stocks have entered the asset class era for a time so it makes no great difference as long as the miner hasnt hedged the resource.
I like macmin becuase they are basically at production phase and the management has been spot on with the price forecasts and timing and the place they are at puts them in a spot of arbitrage compared to where there share price most likely would have been had they already been producing
So based on your arguments, they can get the goods to market as soon as it is produced?
I have no qualms about them not borrowing money, but the process seems just a little too easy. Granted the mine life is limited, surely they would like to spin it off as they did with TAS gold??
I have no qualms about them not borrowing money, but the process seems just a little too easy. Granted the mine life is limited, surely they would like to spin it off as they did with TAS gold??
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crackaton said:
I dont know much about the tassie spin off but would appreciate you filling me in on it and why u think it would relate to twin hills silver mine
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http://www.tasgold.com.au/
I don't know much about them but their website is as above. Note that the Renison Bell and Mt Bischoff mines referred to on the website both produced tin.
A centruy or so ago Mt Bischoff was (I think) the richest tin mine in the world. Renison has been on and off for years and is currently shut but most expect it to open again sometime. These mines are not owned by Tasgold and Mt Bischoff was abandoned decades ago. The problem with Renison is economic rather than physical to my understanding. Both of these are on the West Coast (local term - it's actually a fair distance inland) of Tas.
The West Coast also has the Rosebery (Zinifex) mine which produces zinc, copper, lead, silver, gold. The famous Mt Lyell (Queenstown) mine which is copper and some gold. Also the Savage River iron ore mine and numerous historic mines mostly associated with zinc. So it's quite a prospective area.
If they do discover anything and want to mine it then the West Coast is a relatively isolated region but there are various small towns in the area. There's plenty of power and water (though no relevant infrastructure to pump the water apart from existing uses). Transport is adequate - bulk freight rail line to Burnie (a major port) runs from the area and there's a sealed (but very winding) road too so developing a mine wouldn't be toohard in terms of infrastructure.
The above is general info about one of the areas that Tasgold's website says it is involved in and is NOT company specific info.
I don't know much about them but their website is as above. Note that the Renison Bell and Mt Bischoff mines referred to on the website both produced tin.
A centruy or so ago Mt Bischoff was (I think) the richest tin mine in the world. Renison has been on and off for years and is currently shut but most expect it to open again sometime. These mines are not owned by Tasgold and Mt Bischoff was abandoned decades ago. The problem with Renison is economic rather than physical to my understanding. Both of these are on the West Coast (local term - it's actually a fair distance inland) of Tas.
The West Coast also has the Rosebery (Zinifex) mine which produces zinc, copper, lead, silver, gold. The famous Mt Lyell (Queenstown) mine which is copper and some gold. Also the Savage River iron ore mine and numerous historic mines mostly associated with zinc. So it's quite a prospective area.
If they do discover anything and want to mine it then the West Coast is a relatively isolated region but there are various small towns in the area. There's plenty of power and water (though no relevant infrastructure to pump the water apart from existing uses). Transport is adequate - bulk freight rail line to Burnie (a major port) runs from the area and there's a sealed (but very winding) road too so developing a mine wouldn't be toohard in terms of infrastructure.
The above is general info about one of the areas that Tasgold's website says it is involved in and is NOT company specific info.
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thx smurf....would like a summary of mmn from you if thts ok with you..seems u understand mining a lot would also like to know your experience as well..
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The info I have on MMN is as follows.
Basically it's a junior explorer which has focused primarily on the historic silver mining area in Texas, Queensland. The intention was to identify ore bodies missed or dismissed as uneconomic / technically unviable by previous mining companies operating in the area.
MMN has got what it wanted in that it has found what it claims to be viable silver deposits and is proceeding with mine development. The ore reserve is relatively limited and could be mined out over a period of a few years. Additional exploration in the surrounding area (normal mining industry practice) may extend these reserves significantly.
The company strategy is to sell the silver at the highest achievable price rather than pursue a conventional strategy focusing on maximising the rate of extraction. So the company is to a significant extent speculating on the silver price rising with the idea being that delaying the commencement of operations would ultimatley be the most profitable strategy.
The company view of rising silver prices is based on the notion that there is a supply deficit. My own research indicates that this is indeed the case and that the move away from silver halide photography in favour of digital photography does not remove this supply deficit over the timeframe that MMN is looking at. Silver used in colour photography is substantially recycled whereas that used in X-ray film (a continuing use not yet going digital to my understanding) is not. Hence the popularity of consumer digital cameras does not overcome the silver deficit. Since silver is used extensively in electronic and electrical devices where recycling is generally impractical due to the minute volumes used in individual devices there is ongoing demand as the economy grows in the likes of China.
Most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metallic mining, for example the zinc and lead production of ZFX. It would not be realistic to increase silver supply from these sources greatly other than in line with the slow increse in demand for those other metals. This would not be sufficient to overcome the supply deficit.
There doesn't appear to be a sufficient number of existing primary silver mines to facilitate reliance on increased production from those sources. Hence the need to develop new primary silver mines as MMN is doing.
Regarding the question about my experience, I do not hold relevant formal qualifications in mining but have done a few things including providing technical opinion to mining / processing companies on means to improve their operations and identifying applications for specific technology in the oil industry. My formal qualifications are in electrical / electronics (hands on, not engineering). I've also had plenty of visits to mines, smelters and all kinds of factories, power stations etc and 9 years ago produced a comprehensive (from wind and landfill gas to nuclear and liquefied coal) cost analysis of all potential energy options for Tasmania in the post-big dams era. I would consider going into additional detail but don't wish to be involved in any debates about inflated ego's etc. Might write something up and send a PM.
Basically it's a junior explorer which has focused primarily on the historic silver mining area in Texas, Queensland. The intention was to identify ore bodies missed or dismissed as uneconomic / technically unviable by previous mining companies operating in the area.
MMN has got what it wanted in that it has found what it claims to be viable silver deposits and is proceeding with mine development. The ore reserve is relatively limited and could be mined out over a period of a few years. Additional exploration in the surrounding area (normal mining industry practice) may extend these reserves significantly.
The company strategy is to sell the silver at the highest achievable price rather than pursue a conventional strategy focusing on maximising the rate of extraction. So the company is to a significant extent speculating on the silver price rising with the idea being that delaying the commencement of operations would ultimatley be the most profitable strategy.
The company view of rising silver prices is based on the notion that there is a supply deficit. My own research indicates that this is indeed the case and that the move away from silver halide photography in favour of digital photography does not remove this supply deficit over the timeframe that MMN is looking at. Silver used in colour photography is substantially recycled whereas that used in X-ray film (a continuing use not yet going digital to my understanding) is not. Hence the popularity of consumer digital cameras does not overcome the silver deficit. Since silver is used extensively in electronic and electrical devices where recycling is generally impractical due to the minute volumes used in individual devices there is ongoing demand as the economy grows in the likes of China.
Most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metallic mining, for example the zinc and lead production of ZFX. It would not be realistic to increase silver supply from these sources greatly other than in line with the slow increse in demand for those other metals. This would not be sufficient to overcome the supply deficit.
There doesn't appear to be a sufficient number of existing primary silver mines to facilitate reliance on increased production from those sources. Hence the need to develop new primary silver mines as MMN is doing.
Regarding the question about my experience, I do not hold relevant formal qualifications in mining but have done a few things including providing technical opinion to mining / processing companies on means to improve their operations and identifying applications for specific technology in the oil industry. My formal qualifications are in electrical / electronics (hands on, not engineering). I've also had plenty of visits to mines, smelters and all kinds of factories, power stations etc and 9 years ago produced a comprehensive (from wind and landfill gas to nuclear and liquefied coal) cost analysis of all potential energy options for Tasmania in the post-big dams era. I would consider going into additional detail but don't wish to be involved in any debates about inflated ego's etc. Might write something up and send a PM.
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Thx Smurf I had a hunch that you knew something and look forward to a PM.
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In response to ASX Share price query, MMN responded saying that they expect production of silver to begin Mid Year at their Texas Qld mine.
Silver price seems to be edging higher again but SP appears to be pulling back on the news.
Do you think there is more upside to this stock?
Silver price seems to be edging higher again but SP appears to be pulling back on the news.
Do you think there is more upside to this stock?
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I did sums on MMN a while ago and MMN was looking at producing silver at about AU$6/ounce.
With around 40moz (equivalent) of silver in the ground and a present spot price over AU$12/oz, it is easy to see MMN hitting 50cents within months, and higher still once the speculators take out the US psychological $10/oz barrier.
MMN always said they wanted silver to be over AU$9/oz before getting underway. They (and stock holders) are now being treated to a real bonus.
Needless to say, I am a stock holder (of some 3 years duration and pleased for the patience to be rewarded.)
Traders are clearly taking profits now and good on them.
My ~150k shares is as far as I go, so I will just enjoy the ride.
Which, by the way, is at its very early stages.
Off topic, gold is presently consolidating. Its next move will push it over $600, in all probability some time around June this year. The interwtined relationship of gold and silver will therefore see silver's price breach US$11 by mid year.
So the traders that jump off and want to time a re-entry need to be poised for the next leg up, which will be strong and fast.
With around 40moz (equivalent) of silver in the ground and a present spot price over AU$12/oz, it is easy to see MMN hitting 50cents within months, and higher still once the speculators take out the US psychological $10/oz barrier.
MMN always said they wanted silver to be over AU$9/oz before getting underway. They (and stock holders) are now being treated to a real bonus.
Needless to say, I am a stock holder (of some 3 years duration and pleased for the patience to be rewarded.)
Traders are clearly taking profits now and good on them.
My ~150k shares is as far as I go, so I will just enjoy the ride.
Which, by the way, is at its very early stages.
Off topic, gold is presently consolidating. Its next move will push it over $600, in all probability some time around June this year. The interwtined relationship of gold and silver will therefore see silver's price breach US$11 by mid year.
So the traders that jump off and want to time a re-entry need to be poised for the next leg up, which will be strong and fast.
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Thanks for your comments to all who have responded to my posting.
I agree with your views. I jumped into MMN when I saw an interview where an "expert" commented that long term average price ratio of GOLD/SILVER is around 15-20. There were also other comparisons including DOW JONES/SILVER, the ratio of which I do not remember but all comparison indicated that silver is significantly undervalued.
That plus the fact that MMN is near production makes me believe that it's a good leverage play on silver.
I agree with your views. I jumped into MMN when I saw an interview where an "expert" commented that long term average price ratio of GOLD/SILVER is around 15-20. There were also other comparisons including DOW JONES/SILVER, the ratio of which I do not remember but all comparison indicated that silver is significantly undervalued.
That plus the fact that MMN is near production makes me believe that it's a good leverage play on silver.
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When I posted this 5 weeks ago I would have said that US$12 was possible this year, just, maybe, well perhaps!rederob said:
As for the AUD price topping $16 (ie adding AU$4 in 5 weeks), it's the stuff of dreams.
Instead spot prices yesterday/today have been within 10cents of $12 and the barrier is likely to crack soon.
What does this mean for MMN?
From a relativities perspective, MMN has not performed well in the past month.
Why?
For a start MMN has not matched the 30% price increases of the metal (based on averaged highs of 38cents in late Feb - early March): We should be seeing a 50cent tag on MMN.
Secondly, MMN use of "equivalent" implies a gold content with their silver. MMN needs to revise their "equivalent" quantum due to continuing substantial increases in the price of gold.
Finally, MMN has more than its Texas silver mine to hang its hat on, so if its other projects start to come on line in the near future, expect the share price to move up accordingly.
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