MGX - Mount Gibson Iron

[Gringotts Bank]

Wide ranging days with high volume have been very good entry points of late. The indicator at the bottom is range*volume. Wait for the first C>O should be a low risk entry. Safer would be C>O and C>previous day's close and be prepared to sell next open or within a few days.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Grabbed some at 1.21. Mental stoploss at 1.19, unless it gaps way past it tomorrow!

Traders sitting at 1.20 (double bottom) provide a reasonable buffer for the moment.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I dug out my old "bottom scraping AFL" and ran it a few times with simple profitstop and stoploss optimization. Turns out a wide stop loss and a small profit target is preferable. So I'll apply that here, see how we go.

 

[Tukker]

Grabbed some at 1.21. Mental stoploss at 1.19, unless it gaps way past it tomorrow!

Traders sitting at 1.20 (double bottom) provide a reasonable buffer for the moment.

Hi Gringott,

Curious if you executed your stop or if you went on to lock in some profits? I have ordered a short at 1.14, stop at 1.19. Do your charts tell you the same?

 

[Macros]

MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.

I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.

MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.

I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.

If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html

 

[nulla nulla]

MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.

I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.

MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.

I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.

If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html

Did you look into the "Ownership/Independent Directors/Management" issues that have received so much negative media recently? There may be a reason the share price is drifting down.
Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.

 

[reeftip]

Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.

I think its a take over target now.

 

[ColB]

MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.

I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.

MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.

I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.

If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html

Let's all jump on board as 'the macro market indicator' says it's time to be bullish and now that Macro is in we can make him some more money by buying up.

 

[Macros]

Did you look into the "Ownership/Independent Directors/Management" issues that have received so much negative media recently? There may be a reason the share price is drifting down.
Mind you if it drifts much lower it may become a take-over target from the chinese.

I saw that there was some issues in regards to this and remember hearing about it some time ago.

The reason why this doesn't concern me is that the share price performance makes perfect sense to me:
- macro factors were very poor
- iron ore prices were under pressure
- these uncertainties have now been alleviated in my view (for now)

If you look at the price performance of MGX compared to FMG and RIO over the past 1 year, they are very similar. I have been very negative on iron ore producers over the past year and have surprised myself in realising that now is a good time for a position. It is for that reason that any management concerns have had very little impact on price in my opinion.

Not only that, if management are so bad then why do they have:
- negligible debt
- solid profitability and forecast to improve
- good cash flows, margins and relatively low shareholder dilution

Without knowing the specifics of any concerns about management, this company looks to be very well run and should do well with improved outlook in both equities and reduction in iron ore price concerns.

 

[Macros]

Let's all jump on board as 'the macro market indicator' says it's time to be bullish and now that Macro is in we can make him some more money by buying up.

Apologies for sharing my views on a stock. I'm sure that my views shared on ASF are going to have a massive impact on the share price of a $1.3b company. If they aren't welcome here then I won't post again.

 

[nulla nulla]

.........Not only that, if management are so bad then why do they have:
- negligible debt
- solid profitability and forecast to improve
- good cash flows, margins and relatively low shareholder dilution

Without knowing the specifics of any concerns about management, this company looks to be very well run and should do well with improved outlook in both equities and reduction in iron ore price concerns.

I suspect the former management had a good handle on the running of the company which is why it is as well positioned as it is. Like you I also watch it and compare it with RIO, BHP, and FMG (but as a junior operator in comparison). I believe they took a hit with the canceled contracts, litigation for cancelled shipping and the scramble to recapitalisere when the gst hit.

I suspect that they may have seen a lot of their production locked in at less than favourable rates and are now paying for this with board room and share holder ructions. It would not surprise me to see one of the major share holders increase their holdings at the current price levels or even lob a buy out.

Mining stocks are not my strong point so, like most others, I appreciate input from all ASF posters. I wouldn't stop posting just because one old hag slagged off (no offence colb ).

 

[Macros]

I suspect the former management had a good handle on the running of the company which is why it is as well positioned as it is. Like you I also watch it and compare it with RIO, BHP, and FMG (but as a junior operator in comparison). I believe they took a hit with the canceled contracts, litigation for cancelled shipping and the scramble to recapitalisere when the gst hit.

I suspect that they may have seen a lot of their production locked in at less than favourable rates and are now paying for this with board room and share holder ructions. It would not surprise me to see one of the major share holders increase their holdings at the current price levels or even lob a buy out.

Mining stocks are not my strong point so, like most others, I appreciate input from all ASF posters. I wouldn't stop posting just because one old hag slagged off (no offence colb ).

Nulla Nulla,

The way I view it is that it may be a time for a turn-around, as not all things stay the same. I won't stop posting on the basis of one comment, however I wanted to test the waters.

 

[Boggo]

MGX is looking great.

MGX is clearly a bargain

Apologies for sharing my views on a stock. I'm sure that my views shared on ASF are going to have a massive impact on the share price of a $1.3b company. If they aren't welcome here then I won't post again.

Its not that they are not welcome, its probably more to do with your bold statements that got the well deserved proportional response.

 

[ColB]

Its not that they are not welcome, its probably more to do with your bold statements that got the well deserved proportional response.

No offence Macro but my response was due to interpreting your post as a bit of a ramp.

Your post [1109] justifies your reason for purchase with valid fundamental analysis without telling us what a 'bargain' it is.

Happy to see you still in green and good luck with MGX.

PS: Nulla, how did you know I am an 'old' hag?

 

[nulla nulla]

PS: Nulla, how did you know I am an 'old' hag?

The great spirit in the sky told me, or maybe it was the one in the red I was drinking last night?

 

[nulla nulla]

MGX is looking great. Added a position for the first time today at $1.18.

I haven't held a position in MGX previously due to my personal views on iron ore prices and the impact on producers. However, my mind has now changed and I'm in.

MGX is clearly a bargain, however I believe the problem with the share price has been driven by deteriorating global conditions and a difficult equity market. With my market indicator indicating that now is a time to be bullish, as well as iron ore prices trending up, I see MGX as very well positioned in this environment.

I'm not so worried about the geology as it is not my area of expertise, however I understand that MGX has quality assets which are flowing through to the financials. I believe that the main factors driving the share price from here are the macro factors (equity markets and iron ore prices) which allow prices to move towards fair value.

If anyone is interested, I've posted my workings here:
http://macrovalueinvestment.blogspot.com/2012/01/asx-stock-highlight-mt-gibson-iron-mgx.html

All credit to you. That was an excellent call, particularly if you were looking for a quick return. Closed friday at $1.28. It would seem that the market agrees with you in respect of the potential upside to mgx.



Well done.

p.s. nuthewiser would be proud of you.

 

[Macros]

All credit to you. That was an excellent call, particularly if you were looking for a quick return. Closed friday at $1.28. It would seem that the market agrees with you in respect of the potential upside to mgx.

View attachment 45792

Well done.

p.s. nuthewiser would be proud of you.

Thanks nulla nulla - I appreciate it.

While the move has been nice, I typically aim for 100% upside potential and think that the current conditions allow for it. Until the conditions change, or I'm happy with the gain, I'll stick with it. I think the next six months should be interesting.

The short term move was great timing, but that could have been luck - my strengths and indicators are better suited over six month timeframes.

 

[Macros]

MGX has had a very nice run these past two weeks. Too fast in my view. Sold today at $1.43 and will look to buy again at lower levels. Positive longer term view remains.

 

[tinhat]

On the charts MGX share price does not appear out of the woods yet, but depending on your take on the stability of its management and its corporate governance issues, it's damned cheap.

Director Geoffry Hill bought 30,000 shares yesterday.

Analyst commentary puts a buy on MGX with a target of $3. Shayne Heffernen. I have no idea who these people are:
http://www.livetradingnews.com/mount-gibson-iron-limited-asxmgx-a-strong-buy-66395.htm#.T3JkFjHxq70

 

[fanger]

I bought in a $1.24 hoping for a bounce but instead the share price slid back down to current levels.