MGX - Mount Gibson Iron

chicken · 3 January 2006

Re: MGX

TheAnalyst said:
Wat a weak immature comment chicken..i will post wat i like on mgx and you cant say a word.....bye...you will have no more replys to this nonsense that u are posting...i will only post reply's to genuine stock chat not your verbal attacking on people personally

As I said you are a typicall 36 year old Junior to me ,what you trade and what you buy is of no importance to me...stick to share facts and if you got no comments on stocks you dont even hold..do yourself a favour Junior and DO YOUR RESEARCH....

Joe Blow · 3 January 2006

Re: MGX

chicken said:
As I said you are a typicall 36 year old Junior to me

Come on chicken... there is no reason to make this personal. Differences in opinion are what makes a market. Lets always show other members the appropriate respect irrespective of their views.

Now lets get this thread back on topic.

chicken · 3 January 2006

Re: MGX

Joe Blow said:
Come on chicken... there is no reason to make this personal. Differences in opinion are what makes a market. Lets always show other members the appropriate respect irrespective of their views.

Now lets get this thread back on topic.

OK you got it right

TheAnalyst · 3 January 2006

Re: MGX

chicken said:
Re support...80 cents at present where will the SP head ?..thats easy with a forecast of $78 million profit and the Chinese partner paying 80 cents for their shares in this group...its $1 plus you are looking at....65 cents I would mortgage my house.....its pretty cast iron.....except if the whole world went into a depression..not very likely...so my forecasts are, and I have proven that I have been correct...are $1 plus.......as they are really getting into the swing I own 200k shares

Been reading all the posts chicken..been tracking when you bought in mid last year and you have a lot at stake...starting to see why u have been getting angry with me...lolol.....i kick ur ass when it comes to trading....

Anyway after all this does anyone have a good estimate from the company how many tonnes of iron ore thay have in the ground..and they have stated somewhere what their production will be for each year and at that production level how long will the mine last??

I am asking because there are a few on this subject following the the stock hard and realise that you might have these figures down to a "T"...that way i can create a spread sheet on exell and value the amount of iron ore they have with the current price of ore on the market and value how much the whole lot is worth on a daily basis.

Does anyone also have the number of diluted and undiluted shares on issue so we can tell how much the directors will be taking with the conversion of options to shares??

laurie · 3 January 2006

Re: MGX

I am amazed what has happen to MGX :swear: funny if MGX hit .90c the ASX would be asking them a price query why the share price went up so where is the ASX NOW the share price went south no where to be seen

cheers laurie

chicken · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

laurie said:
I am amazed what has happen to MGX :swear: funny if MGX hit .90c the ASX would be asking them a price query why the share price went up so where is the ASX NOW the share price went south no where to be seen

cheers laurie

Laurie....this stock will rise again..why? the assets in this company are great..producing and making $$$ no debt ,and the reason this stock went south someone sold 2.5 million shares and triggered sell stops..read their latest anouncements....see what the company posted...www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and very little stock is being traded..it will come alltogether in the next 3 months....after all I am holding a swag..and I know the CHINESE need our iron ore for their buildings etc..and India may need iron ore .........my time frame is at least 3 months or sooner..now its buying time for this stock..because as soon as all the facts are known $1 will be cheap......

laurie · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

Chicken

I on like you BUT I get annoyed with the ASX they assume when a share price for some unknown goes up quite quickly there is some inside trading going on, I'm saying the same when it drops like MGX did !! who's to say inside information did not cause the drop!!

cheers laurie

markrmau · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

Well have a look at what happened just before mid december. Rather than produce a BFS as expected by the market, one director sold a fair whack of shares. I still hold from 70c.

TheAnalyst · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

markrmau said:
Well have a look at what happened just before mid december. Rather than produce a BFS as expected by the market, one director sold a fair whack of shares. I still hold from 70c.

the stock is totally reliant on the price of ore from here...and how much can ore go up by...as we know it has had a great run...so maybe we can look at what would be a reasonable increase in the price from year to year now...10% or something above the inflation rate????

I wish someone would post what the estimate is of the amount of ore mgx has in the ground then i could come up with something and start trading the stock..

markrmau · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

Something like 31MT haemetite (shippable grade) and 100MT magnetite (not sure what grade).

TheAnalyst · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

markrmau said:
Something like 31MT haemetite (shippable grade) and 100MT magnetite (not sure what grade).

Hi makrmau

Have you got what price per tonne on both of these or how it equates to a price of ore on the global market??

cheers

chicken · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

TheAnalyst said:
Hi makrmau

Have you got what price per tonne on both of these or how it equates to a price of ore on the global market??

cheers

I would suggest you go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au aND LOOK AT THE FIGURES SHAW POSTED ...its all there as far as what the poster posted its all incorrect..look at the webside and its all there

markrmau · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

Well that's the problem. So many unknown variables. Can give current contract/spot prices, but who knows what will happen 2006..2010???

I believe the following is correct in US $/tonne
China spot: 85
India spot: 70
Brazil contract: 66
Aus contract: 55

May as well use same for hemetite (Fe2O3) and magnetite (Fe3O4 - slightly higher %iron).

markrmau · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

chicken said:
its all there as far as what the poster posted its all incorrect

I assume you mean me.

If you have such a lot of MGX chicken, I suggest you become a client of shaw's rather than rely on what MGX stuck on the web page from 1 year ago. What are they saying now? I know. Do you?

chicken · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

markrmau said:
I assume you mean me.

If you have such a lot of MGX chicken, I suggest you become a client of shaw's rather than rely on what MGX stuck on the web page from 1 year ago. What are they saying now? I know. Do you?

No, all I am saying that there assets of Iron ore are higher as they are involved in the Pilbara region near Port Headlands...and also in the Kimberley region...the company in fact has more iron ore than stated in the report as these 2 region nothing is said about that....all I know its larger than the market is aware of....this share will rise as soon as the Chinese have joined and its a waiting game......at present....someone is still accumilating at these prices...could be the Chinese we will know soon.....As fart as the BFS....it will all come together in the next 3 months...MGX has production is making the $$$ and has now NO debt..or very little...I am prepared to wait.....

TheAnalyst · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

I now confirm that i have begun my analysis of mgx and have sent mgx an email to their finance section with some hard questions and one of those questions what is the estimated production potential of any raw mines.

I have also come to an early conclusion as to why the share price is not higher and why shaws valued it in the high $1 range and that is because if the same p/e ratio was applied to mgx as onesteel and bhp to would almost double its share price. On top of this risk issue that a p/e ratio lower than the before mentioned two companies it will not be paying a dividend until 2007 which also is an issue in valuation.

BHP and Onesteel have confirmed less riskier track records and know mines in reserves which gives them a perpetuity of cashflows meaning that its expected in the calcualation in the share price that Bhp and Onesteele will continue as a business for good; mgx does not have this assumption yet and seems a bit far from establishing this character but by no means does it mean it will not, but by no means has it proved that it will either.

As of march when shaws released their analysis and they have also done for other company's as well a very famous one being ROC oil 4-5 yrs ago and it never really eventuated and it seems a little like the mgx one as well but maybe not though it does have the same feel. Anyway back to march of 2005 the diluted shares were 408 million compared to undiluted 361 million..now i havent gort around to the last finacial report but i will so i dont know if there is an increase but what this means is that directors and other connected figures have options to convert to shares and sell if they so wish which equates to 13% of the entire shares o issue meaning that the share price will fall by 13% to accommodate the option exercise.

One must take into account was the analysis by shaw paid for by mgx if this is so its like any business pricing from parties involved there will be 2 valuations being on behalf of the seller and the buyer and both come in a way that is most beneficial to each of the instigating parties and then there is a independent valuation as well and you end up with of course 3 prices at two extreme ends.

markrmau · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

TheAnalyst said:
One must take into account was the analysis by shaw paid for by mgx

This analysis was not paid for by mgx. A disclosure is given in the report.

In general, I have found the Shaw reports on small companies to be very good. They have found some real gems, before the bigger brokerages cover them.

Not as good for larger companies though.

TheAnalyst · 4 January 2006

Re: MGX

markrmau said:
This analysis was not paid for by mgx. A disclosure is given in the report.

In general, I have found the Shaw reports on small companies to be very good. They have found some real gems, before the bigger brokerages cover them.

Not as good for larger companies though.

u seem to have done your homework on this stock...can you give me a summary of what u think are the highlights of mgx.

Also do u have much knowledge on any other raw mines of mgx?

markrmau · 5 January 2006

Re: MGX

I'm afraid I don't have much significant information to add.

You see my investment style is not to try too hard to value companies in the present. Even if you came up with a valuation of $1 for mgx, I'm sure you could move it anywhere from 50c or $2 by simply varying your assumptions such as iron ore prices, mining costs, ...

I look for companies where there is other opportunity not reflected in SP. In the case of mgx it is the 100MT of magnetite (could be wrong here but I read that they had an option which expired in Dec 2005 to acquire remaining 100MT - I see no announcement so I assume it expired). I have read that Shaw valued mgx at something like 79c WITHOUT including the magnetite.

So my reasoning is, value mgx current workings at 55c-63c (my extra risk premium), you still have potential for extra 70-80c when the magnetite project is running (some share dilution as well).

However unless something good is announced, I think mgx will trade from 55-63c over the next year and hopefully I will be able to buy more in this range.

One thing I can say for Chicken though, is even if you don't like his posting style or overuse of the 2c symbol , he has been on some real winners - ZFX, SBM,.... So I think he will clean up on mgx in long term.

On a less positive note, I was very dissappointed to see directors selling $80k at the time the market expected word on the magnetite project. Obviously the director knew no BFS was forthcoming and would have known about the impact of the rail cars (problem initially announced mid 2005).

Cheers,Mark.

TheAnalyst · 5 January 2006

Re: MGX

markrmau said:
I'm afraid I don't have much significant information to add.

You see my investment style is not to try too hard to value companies in the present. Even if you came up with a valuation of $1 for mgx, I'm sure you could move it anywhere from 50c or $2 by simply varying your assumptions such as iron ore prices, mining costs, ...

I look for companies where there is other opportunity not reflected in SP. In the case of mgx it is the 100MT of magnetite (could be wrong here but I read that they had an option which expired in Dec 2005 to acquire remaining 100MT - I see no announcement so I assume it expired). I have read that Shaw valued mgx at something like 79c WITHOUT including the magnetite.

So my reasoning is, value mgx current workings at 55c-63c (my extra risk premium), you still have potential for extra 70-80c when the magnetite project is running (some share dilution as well).

However unless something good is announced, I think mgx will trade from 55-63c over the next year and hopefully I will be able to buy more in this range.

One thing I can say for Chicken though, is even if you don't like his posting style or overuse of the 2c symbol , he has been on some real winners - ZFX, SBM,.... So I think he will clean up on mgx in long term.

On a less positive note, I was very dissappointed to see directors selling $80k at the time the market expected word on the magnetite project. Obviously the director knew no BFS was forthcoming and would have known about the impact of the rail cars (problem initially announced mid 2005).

Cheers,Mark.

These things that you have pointed out are very significant in regards to share price movement as some of those reduce confidence in buyers(myself included) and therefore share price momentum....i personally wouldnt buy at 70 - 80 cents..like you said the 55- 63 cent mark is fair especially as there is no word on the magnetite as this is to be factored in to the highest value of the shaw report share price. I even think that within the next 3-4 mths there is a good probability that you could purchase at the 45 to 50 cent mark, but that will only be available to a buyer for any where between an hour or up to 2 days.

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