MGX - Mount Gibson Iron

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Although a mining company should be valued on NPV basis......

At 65c MGX is trading at a PE of 9. This is from last years NPAT of $23.7mill. With regards to earnings turning to normal??? the last time I checked 37 is > 23.7. So on forecast downgraded earnings MGX is trading at a PE of 5.6 (undiluted using number of shares from 05 report).

Viewing this as cheap or expensive depends on the life of the mines it owns (Tallering is only expected to go for 6 years), and the potential of its other prospects...

Hi Tjames

I have just gone thru a good book on derivatives pricing and finished it so i can understand and calculale for myself the price of any derivative and know how institutions price them.

I have done a bit of study on the mathematical pricing models of all types of capital and i am now almost finished the pricing models that are used to calculate the price of shares...i did t previously at TAFE but i have now taken it a bit further...but i dont like the fortunes of mgx in the long run though short term is ok but its mine is only gonna last ten yrs and when demand grows even less.

I have the formulas now for NPV and found where to access to the beta's just gotta find some market expectation returns and should find them from some connection at uni for free..probally one of the lectures will know i think the graduate school of business management risk has them but i am at vic uni so i will see if i can get access and then i will start doing all the calculations to perfection not as rough as i have been doing this year but will get there.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

You know chicken i reckon you are right there is no indications that the commodity boom is gonna stop, actually i think it is somewhere not even thru the middle of its current cycle..a cycle is usually at least 5 yrs long and it has not been 5 yrs.

Analyst..what I read is or what the forecasters are saying this is going to last to 2012..due ONLY to the demand from CHINA...and pulls the rest of the world along...CHINA and also India are the Engine of this Resources BOOM...

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Analyst..what I read is or what the forecasters are saying this is going to last to 2012..due ONLY to the demand from CHINA...and pulls the rest of the world along...CHINA and also India are the Engine of this Resources BOOM...

And the famous great one Gann said the key would be commodities...u could just go long and stay there for hundreds of yrs.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

And the famous great one Gann said the key would be commodities...u could just go long and stay there for hundreds of yrs.

Analyst, tell me have you got any shares or you just like to annoy people..? Put your money where your mouth is....after all your Multiplex is not doing much is it.....MGX see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au is going places..and are making $$$$$ and creeping up to go over 70 cents....as soon as we know what %%% increase in the iron ore price....this one is to watch...also any one in CAZ should read what Mr Tim Treadgold wrote in the BRW November issue 24-30 2005 and take note...tennament is still questionable...and RIO may drag it out for years

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Analyst, tell me have you got any shares or you just like to annoy people..? Put your money where your mouth is....after all your Multiplex is not doing much is it.....MGX see www.mtgibsoniron.com.au is going places..and are making $$$$$ and creeping up to go over 70 cents....as soon as we know what %%% increase in the iron ore price....this one is to watch...also any one in CAZ should read what Mr Tim Treadgold wrote in the BRW November issue 24-30 2005 and take note...tennament is still questionable...and RIO may drag it out for years

Hi Chicko

I never said that mgx would stay at 55 cents..did i? I never said that i would but mxg either...did i? I have done a few trades this year and in the last week i have traded TLS instalments (TLSISS) Santos STO installments (STOISS) all winning trades(sold yesterday when share price was $12.16..and had bght when share price was $11.85). I have traded NAB ordinary shares 3 times all winning trades and also NAB equity call warrants and puts...calls at cum div and puts just before ex dive (44%)

I have been accumulating GTP installments and about even at the moment...my only loss this yr is GTP ordinary and BSL ordinary as they are tricky stocks but getting the handle on there valuation models now.

I have to open positions at the moment but my plan is banks this new yr and it will be banks and more banks as well as BHP.

Keep it cool

TheAnalyst

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Hi Chicken

I have been doing the some final studies on the pricing methods for securities and unless mgx can ascertian that it will have something left to mine in 12 years it will be worth a residual value per share and this will be the value of any assets it has left.

This value is refered to as terminal value and as it is not a company like a bank or a well known newspaper that its net cashflows are considered to have an infinity time placed on them, therefore, mgx has a finite period placed on its netcashflows being 12 years.

We then must get a reasonable growth percentage for mgx's net cashflows per year to use as well as a discount rate which is the weighted average cost of capital(wacc) meaning how much in percentage terms does the cost of servicing debt, preference shares and dividend payments to ordinary share holders. From here we can then calculate the net present value(NPV) of the net yearly cashflows up to the TERMINAL VALUE which is the last and final period of the life considered of the business and get a total NPV.

THen from this point we deduct its net borrowings as of the first period used in the net cashflow period then add any surplus assets not used in the business which gives us the value of equity which we then divide by the amount of shares on issue which gives an estimate of what the share price should be traded in the secondary market.

Now the best thing you can do is contact the accounting section of mgx and ask them what pricing method is currently being used to price the shares and ask them what growth forecast and discount rate is currently being accepted and used for the pricing valuation model of mgx which should be their wacc. Now i can get their balance sheet and probally do it myself but i am busy doing some other very important stuff at the moment so if you can get this info to me it will be easier for me to know what the major analyst sections of the institutions are upto in their pricing of mgx shares that way i can get a handle on what sensitivities the stock price has and when news comes i can get an idea whats gonna happen.

The big concern is are share holders going to get back much more than what they paid for their shares before the finite terminal date approaches and the shares are only worth a residual value most likely being the assets left over.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few

Chicken..facts are facts...like i said contact the accounts section of mgx and get the variables that i asked you for...as you are a shareholder and have right to this information and you can even ask for the company full accounts not just the accounts(reports that are commonly sent to shareholders).

All i am trying to do is establish a trading range on the stock( a possible high & a possible low) and to do this we need this info so we can determine what the sensitivities are to the stock and what each sensitivity or crystallisation of a risk can do to the share price in the valuation model.

Whether you like it or not we cannot get away from these facts they are the set fundamentals of share price models on the stock market.

All i am trying to do is help you chicken then you can find when is a good time to accumulate and sell and the most important thing is if mxg donot find new mines well when is a good time to exit the stock before it become almost worthless again as its earnings are not at this stage considered perpetuity so there is obviously a terminal date on the mgx and lets find when that is and the company accountant will know.

Also chicken by me raising these issues is good for this forum because i have now alerted mgx share holders the dangers of the stock the risks and they have the right to know as readers in this forum not just your one eyed views, so, its not nice for you to talk to me like this as you have and to cease control of the veiws on the forum of mgx in some ways that means you could be a ramper.

All information should be considered and my guess is that a lot of people in this forum and mgx shareholders probally did not know or were aware of set pricing models like i have explained are applicable to mgx and it is good for people to know this information as it is seldom spoken of and they now have the opportunity to realise that this is so.

I have been looking at mgx but i plan to do more research over time as how often can the price of iron ore continue to rise before is begins to effect demand and restrict net cashflow growth or even send it negative.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

Tell me Analyst what would you know and how much of Geologyst are you stick to your Bank shares after all you dont own any shares in MGX, I really dont understand your motive of posting on a subject you dont understand..you sound like someone who posted on ZFX when I was posting..YOU JUST HAVE NOT GOT A CLUE stick to your MXG not MGX which you dont understand..see my record ZFX,SBM, just to name a few

If anyone would like to see what SHAW STOCKBROKING RESEARCH TEAM has to say go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and you find a brokers research report...after all SHAW bought 20 million shares at 85 cents....if anyone did their research well they had put their money where their mouth is...check it out and look at the research...if iron ore will climb by 10% the figures are even better than presented...so who do you belief an unqualified person like Analyst or a broker who went to the trouble and produced figures and charts...after all oil will run out in 30 years..so Santos or woodside have only a residual value...ask yourself who needs help

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

If anyone would like to see what SHAW STOCKBROKING RESEARCH TEAM has to say go to www.mtgibsoniron.com.au and you find a brokers research report...after all SHAW bought 20 million shares at 85 cents....if anyone did their research well they had put their money where their mouth is...check it out and look at the research...if iron ore will climb by 10% the figures are even better than presented...so who do you belief an unqualified person like Analyst or a broker who went to the trouble and produced figures and charts...after all oil will run out in 30 years..so Santos or woodside have only a residual value...ask yourself who needs help

Chicken...Chicken...Chicken...I probally am just as qualified as any of those analysts at shaws..maybe more qualified as well...and experienced as well

I am not doubting mgx...so can you stop quoting me that i am doubting mgx..and look how those analysts at shaws got it wrong and bought at 85 cents when they should have done there home work and realised the risk that train carraiges not delivered on time due to over demand harmed the share price recently.

Also i have experience with Shaws and they havent always been known to get it right not even one of their senior advisors is all clean and good at getting it right.

I dont hold santos as you have not been reading my posts properly i held them just prior to xmas and sold after xmas and will lye in wait for another opportunity.

I am just pointing out facts and the risks involved and they have presented themselves..i am not saying that mgx will not rise to higher highs and i am not saying it will not dive to lower lows i am pointing out risks. Also shaws stockbroking didnt use their own money they used there clients money with a transaction fee and commission attached for the advice.

You still seem to be getting away from the facts of the whole pricing fundamentals of the stockmarket. Why dont you let all of us here know what research and what lead you to buy mgx and zinifex and the others as you obviouly did something right and i would like to know as i am not a gambler and hope you are not as well.

So here take the platform and share with us your strategy for buying these stocks as i have always been open about my strategy and purchases(gains and losses) and have been quite acurate at predicting share price lows as you can check out my prior posts and i have always explained how i came to these lets see if you can be as honest and straight forward as me...here is the challenge to you CHICKEN see if yopu can be honest to us all and share it with us.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

Tell me Analyst..did you know MGX are involved in the Kimberleys and have also a hugh holding in the Pilbara near Port Headlands , production figures by AShaw Stockbroking are not even included..by the way I dont need advise from Ameutures like you ,I make my research and post facts..you need to make your research before you post crap..as far as i can see you just follow trends..as I said before if you are not prepared to research your subject as your posting sugests..than dont post on the subject you dont understand

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Tell me Analyst..did you know MGX are involved in the Kimberleys and have also a hugh holding in the Pilbara near Port Headlands , production figures by AShaw Stockbroking are not even included..by the way I dont need advise from Ameutures like you ,I make my research and post facts..you need to make your research before you post crap..as far as i can see you just follow trends..as I said before if you are not prepared to research your subject as your posting sugests..than dont post on the subject you dont understand

So you are a gambler then and you are also very rude and you are still mis quoting me...and you are getting very personal and calling me an amatuer doesnt do you any justice its actually making you look really bad because you havent stated how you did your research i have and you have stated your total lack of knowledge of the markets becuase you arre not aware of the facts that i have presented to you...maybe we should get others to post their opinion of you as you are avoiding answering me...and i reckon everyone can guess why?? becuase i am more qualified than you and i am more open and you well....we can see from your last post on the subject what you are all about.....A BIG MOUTH...who can ask for responses but cant give them your self...you proballly dont even hold the stocks yourself and on top of this you are probally a subscriber to Shaws analyst reports because you cannot do the research your self or the maths and by no means do i insult you for this it is probally wise for someone like you to get advice...but what i do note is you are full of it becuase i have came on a level headed debate with you and came up with fundamentals and facts and rised to your challenge and was very happy to disclose where you have lived up to your name CHICKEN and ran from my challenge and have insulted the readers of this forum by not telling us your strategy and when i have and shared and most likely people have learned from me as i do get queries in my email about stuff...you have basically spat on me and insulted me when i have done the right thing by people and disclosed and you havent.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

See I told you you have not got a clue..tell me what else has MGX got I have not posted on..well? see you have not researched the company..you follow trends you dont, I am a longterm holder of stock..you sound like a day trader or whatever..but your knowledge of who MGX are is poor..right..I am not a gambler after all I hold a swag of MGX for good reasons..yours is just a day trends mine is for a lot longer..and anyway..if you are that clever you even posted wrong ASX company symbols..you need to make your research..then post...and facts are important.....

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

See I told you you have not got a clue..tell me what else has MGX got I have not posted on..well? see you have not researched the company..you follow trends you dont, I am a longterm holder of stock..you sound like a day trader or whatever..but your knowledge of who MGX are is poor..right..I am not a gambler after all I hold a swag of MGX for good reasons..yours is just a day trends mine is for a lot longer..and anyway..if you are that clever you even posted wrong ASX company symbols..you need to make your research..then post...and facts are important.....

Is that the best you can do Chicken...you have avoided the real challenge...i met your challenge and i make my trades on calcualted decisions as well as a continuing gain of knowledge and have disclosed...you still have not met the same challenge requirements that you made to me and i lived up to..you are avoiding your own queries to me..that is quite hypocryticall of you and i am quite sure people read my posts and learn.

You have got no respect for people of this forum as you have refused to disclose what made you a buyer of mgx..i have disclosed why i have not been a buyer of mgx and there are many mining company's that say they have mining rights in certian areas but whether they can eventually get earnings out of them is another thing until then it may as well still be called venture capital...and mgx is still partly venture capital...fact is a fact

You are an avoider of your own stringent insults and demands to others...i am not...until you disclose you will be seen by others on this forum as lacking in something real...honesty, knowledge, experience and respect for others, you will beseen as someone who hides behind the secrecy of a internet forum someone who cant take it up to those with qualifications and leave without embarressment and a red face because you are someone who just guesses your stock picks or likes the name of them.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

Is that the best you can do Chicken...you have avoided the real challenge...i met your challenge and i make my trades on calcualted decisions as well as a continuing gain of knowledge and have disclosed...you still have not met the same challenge requirements that you made to me and i lived up to..you are avoiding your own queries to me..that is quite hypocryticall of you and i am quite sure people read my posts and learn.

You have got no respect for people of this forum as you have refused to disclose what made you a buyer of mgx..i have disclosed why i have not been a buyer of mgx and there are many mining company's that say they have mining rights in certian areas but whether they can eventually get earnings out of them is another thing until then it may as well still be called venture capital...and mgx is still partly venture capital...fact is a fact

You are an avoider of your own stringent insults and demands to others...i am not...until you disclose you will be seen by others on this forum as lacking in something real...honesty, knowledge, experience and respect for others, you will beseen as someone who hides behind the secrecy of a internet forum someone who cant take it up to those with qualifications and leave without embarressment and a red face because you are someone who just guesses your stock picks or likes the name of them.

As I said..YOU DONT HOLD ANY STOCK IN MGX...WHY DO YOU POST...??? Just to annoy me, well I come across people like you all the time...and I said do your research..,have you done it ,NO , you are annoyed with me give it a rest as you have not got a clue...on this subject....after all MGX are going to be the 4th largest producer of iron ore in Australia...funny ,that I know and you dont.....because you follow trends and I dont.....

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

As I said..YOU DONT HOLD ANY STOCK IN MGX...WHY DO YOU POST...??? Just to annoy me, well I come across people like you all the time...and I said do your research..,have you done it ,NO , you are annoyed with me give it a rest as you have not got a clue...on this subject....after all MGX are going to be the 4th largest producer of iron ore in Australia...funny ,that I know and you dont.....because you follow trends and I dont.....

I have never denied what mgx could be...but i have been talking of a valuation of the share price..you still have not came to your own party..and i am still waiting for you to attend..you sent the invite but havent turned up yourself.

And what trends do you think i follow and what is your idea of a trend that i follow???

Remember you started the insults not me and now you have still avoided disclosing a nice summary of events of what got you to be a holder of mgx...so we on the forun are still waiting for you to use the same energy in posting insults to me to be used in a positive way and summarise why you bought into mgx.

I believe there are a few readers out there waiting for you to reply.

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

I have never denied what mgx could be...but i have been talking of a valuation of the share price..you still have not came to your own party..and i am still waiting for you to attend..you sent the invite but havent turned up yourself.

And what trends do you think i follow and what is your idea of a trend that i follow???

Remember you started the insults not me and now you have still avoided disclosing a nice summary of events of what got you to be a holder of mgx...so we on the forun are still waiting for you to use the same energy in posting insults to me to be used in a positive way and summarise why you bought into mgx.

I believe there are a few readers out there waiting for you to reply.

You are a funny bloke...no shares in the company,no research,no idea where and what the company is up to, and you are trying to tell the board you know what the share price should be get off the grass...this trick was done with Mout Isa Mines where Xtrata did just that...today people are better informed...and its all there to see....MGX will be the stock for 2006 the price is CHEAP...too cheap as MGX are producers and as soon as the Chinese are on board watch the price rise.....tell me what is a 1 billion ton of iron ore worth...by looks of things peanuts..right...well wrong...are you connected with Xtrata...because thats what they would have said......you are an expert...thats a laugh

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

You are a funny bloke...no shares in the company,no research,no idea where and what the company is up to, and you are trying to tell the board you know what the share price should be get off the grass...this trick was done with Mout Isa Mines where Xtrata did just that...today people are better informed...and its all there to see....MGX will be the stock for 2006 the price is CHEAP...too cheap as MGX are producers and as soon as the Chinese are on board watch the price rise.....tell me what is a 1 billion ton of iron ore worth...by looks of things peanuts..right...well wrong...are you connected with Xtrata...because thats what they would have said......you are an expert...thats a laugh

Whatever chicken...you are still quoting stuff i havent ever said..and you dont make the rules about what people can and cannot post on this site so i can post what i like as long as it is within the rules of the site.

By the way chicken i have the skills at anytime to do a full research and analysis of mgx and i can interpret the financial statements do any type of auditing and stock performance ratio analysis and chicken i can take every transaction from the largest to smallest that mgx does and create their company accounts to the International Accounting Standards, ASX and according to the corporations act being their balance sheet, statement of performance and cashflow statement and you can actually give me their accrual accounting statement and balance sheet and i can create manually their cashflow statements.

Like i say chicken i can do what you cannot...you are totally reliant on others i can make my own investment decisions just like any professional who works for an investemnt bank...i would only day trade mgx at this stage but i think it carrys to much risk when i can leverage myself into real proven stocks with ease and i dont have to watch a screen all day as i find a position and i stay there...i ama position trader and a trade can go for one day or it may go for 3 mths.

Now i will wait for the next bucket of crap that you send me

 

[chicken]

Re: MGX

Whatever chicken...you are still quoting stuff i havent ever said..and you dont make the rules about what people can and cannot post on this site so i can post what i like as long as it is within the rules of the site.

By the way chicken i have the skills at anytime to do a full research and analysis of mgx and i can interpret the financial statements do any type of auditing and stock performance ratio analysis and chicken i can take every transaction from the largest to smallest that mgx does and create their company accounts to the International Accounting Standards, ASX and according to the corporations act being their balance sheet, statement of performance and cashflow statement and you can actually give me their accrual accounting statement and balance sheet and i can create manually their cashflow statements.

Like i say chicken i can do what you cannot...you are totally reliant on others i can make my own investment decisions just like any professional who works for an investemnt bank...i would only day trade mgx at this stage but i think it carrys to much risk when i can leverage myself into real proven stocks with ease and i dont have to watch a screen all day as i find a position and i stay there...i ama position trader and a trade can go for one day or it may go for 3 mths.

Now i will wait for the next bucket of crap that you send me

Hi junior Analyst..I have got Kids older than you..you dont own any stock in MGX..tell me why do you post?..are you unemployed..or looking for a job..I only post on subjects which intrest me...stick to the subject on hand STOCKS and shares...and if you got some news post but the crap you post are irellavant..as I said before you buy you sell..not a longterm holder of any stocks....eg Santos,...you are like a butterfly..from this to that...do yourself a favour and post only if you got a constructive comment.....on stocks news ...but as far as financials you will get yourself into hotwater and companies take action even on chatrooms or forums....YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE OF WHAT YOU POST.....and can be sued

 

[TheAnalyst]

Re: MGX

Hi junior Analyst..I have got Kids older than you..you dont own any stock in MGX..tell me why do you post?..are you unemployed..or looking for a job..I only post on subjects which intrest me...stick to the subject on hand STOCKS and shares...and if you got some news post but the crap you post are irellavant..as I said before you buy you sell..not a longterm holder of any stocks....eg Santos,...you are like a butterfly..from this to that...do yourself a favour and post only if you got a constructive comment.....on stocks news ...but as far as financials you will get yourself into hotwater and companies take action even on chatrooms or forums....YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE OF WHAT YOU POST.....and can be sued

Wat a weak immature comment chicken..i will post wat i like on mgx and you cant say a word.....bye...you will have no more replys to this nonsense that u are posting...i will only post reply's to genuine stock chat not your verbal attacking on people personally