MCR - Mincor Resources

chops_a_must said:

Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.

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Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere. As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.

kennas said:

Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere. As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.

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I also agree and disagree to some extent as well. Mainly, price action having all available information factored into it. As they say, fundamentals lag the market. How often do you see good news abound a stock, for it to do nothing, only to break out a week later? MRE is a classic example of a stock not being rated fully until very late in the piece. MCR have also made announcements relating to new projects over the last 2 weeks, and it may have taken some time for the market to begin factoring that in.

Hey
Both you guys are professional in what you do - and congrats to both of you on your fantastic profits on MCR!!

Cheers
Shelton.

Wow, great day for MCR and the MCR thread is a ghost town..... oh I get it, you're all at the pub!!!!

Who would've thought that the price of MCR would be above the price of SMY at this point? At one stage there a few months ago I was thinking of dividing my funds between MCR/SMY, but in the end decided to stick it into MCR.

Chart looks good, I'd interested to know what the EW guys make of it???

Good annoucement today as well didn't hurt either.

Cheers
Peakey

Yesterday was good, but 2day is even better. Touched $5.10 and hit the billiion dollar mkt cap club for a little while.

Not a chartist, but seems as though it has broken out of its upward trend channel. From my limited understanding of technical analysis, this would seem to be a very bullish break with more big gains to come.

Major positive ann for MCR (&JV 30% partner VRE) with approval/commencement of Carnilya Project. First production expected Jan 2008...

An extract...

"Based on the most recent nickel price forecasts by Royal Bank of Canada, the Project is forecast to
generate more than $200 million net cash before tax, with an internal rate of return (IRR) estimated at
more than 600%. The feasibility study estimates suggest that the project breaks even on a full capital
cost basis at a flat life-of-mine nickel price of A$14,300 per tonne."

Yes, it sure has been reasuring that whilst I have been tripping around Europe& the Carribean for the past 3 months that MCR have just about paid for the whole trip, glad I did'nt flick them before I left, porkpie

While the price of nickel has been in a downward trend recently and with other nickel stocks following suit (MRE IGO AGM), MCR has held up very well.

The chart on MCR is starting to show a few positive signs.

Potential triangle breakout today, on increasing volume. All time high is $5.10. Also a nice white candle and closing on the high of the day, sets up nicely for tomorrow. (Having said that, I've probably just given it the 'kiss of death' now)

Cheers
Peakey

The lure of all that cash in MCR was to much for me I sold my last 10k on 22nd June for $4.60.Your analysis Peaky is probably correct with MCR holding up well, so I will now be using CFDs for future trading in MCR and be buying on any weakness. porkpie

I've held Mincor since I bought them at 68c but I sold out on Monday. Looked like it was gonna take a breather so I moved on. Of course, since I sold out, it's gone up 5.6%. Still believe this one has plenty in it, though the falling Nickel price is putting a negative spin on it.

Seeing as the majority of valuation still use a very low Nickel price though, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this one continue to perform strongly, especially with the management they have. Continueing to use their profits to reinvest heavily in new projects.

Excellent news for View via Mincor quarterly

Mincor's quarterly now out reveals excellent news for View Resources. I would expect View's quarterly to be released Thursday or Friday this week now, and am expecting a very good report - both financially, in Gold production volume output, and forward projections from Bronzewing (VRE - 100%). Coupled with this glowing report on the Nickel front at Carnilya Hill and Zone 29 via J/V partner Mincor (MCR - 70%), the road ahead looks solid, strong and highly profitable, with a high likelihood of further upside and increased resource upgrades via the latest strikes from ongoing and further exploration.
Big overseas money now firmly invested in View with the Singapore consortium firmly entrenched as the No. 1 Ticketholder/Shareholder on the Top 20 register. Easy to see why when you fully analyse this stock as all the boxes have been ticked now, and it will be full speed ahead from here on in.
The relevant excerpts referring to View Resources via the Mincor Quarterly are as follows:

• Carnilya Hill nickel project given go-ahead with
production to commence January 2008

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
During the quarter, the Company and its joint venture partner
took the decision to proceed with the development of a new
mining operation at Carnilya Hill. The new operation will be
based on an initial ore reserve of 483,500 tonnes @ 2.9%
nickel for 14,000 tonnes of contained nickel metal.
Life-of-mine capital costs are estimated at $28 million.
Production is expected to commence in January 2008 and
ramp up to a rate of approximately 15,000 tonnes of ore per
month, or approximately 5,000 tonnes of nickel per annum
(Mincor’s equity share 3,500 tonnes nickel).
By the end of June Mincor had, after a competitive tender
process, awarded the mining contract to RUC Mining
Contractors Pty Ltd. Surface site works commenced during
June, and as at the date of this report Mincor and RUC had
mobilised to site and underground rehabilitation of the
existing decline was well advanced.

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
Exploration drilling continued in the quarter with the
completion of two diamond drill-holes and a wedge for 2,112 metres.
CMD026 intersected 3.11 metres @ 3.66% nickel, from
698.74 metres down-hole. This includes 0.36 metres @
17.55% nickel from 698.74 metres down-hole, followed by
1.47 metres of weakly mineralised ultramafic rock and then
1.28 metres @ 1.64% nickel from 700.57 metres. All
intersections are close to true width.
The result indicates a major extension to the mineralised
channel structure at Carnilya Hill, with the new intersection
located 280 metres down-plunge of the last substantial
intersection (2.79 metres @ 8.61% nickel in CMD028W1) in
the mineralised channel. Recently completed down-hole
electro-magnetics (DHEM) indicate the presence of a strong
in-hole/off-hole EM anomaly centred below the new
intersection and extending both up-plunge and down-plunge
to the east and west.
A follow-up hole, CMD026W1, is a downward wedge off the
parent hole CMD026 and intersected 0.31 metres @ 6.05%
nickel from 706.82 metres in matrix and stringer sulphides
mineralisation.
Interpretation of the open intersections down-dip of
CMD028W1 and CMD021 indicates the possibility that the
host ultramafic extends beyond the previously interpreted
limits and if so, could link with CMD026 down-plunge.
CMD034 tested this theory and was drilled 115 metres
down-dip of CMD010W1.
While CMD034 did not intersect significant mineralisation, a
DHEM survey identified a moderate to strong off-hole
anomaly up-dip off the target position. The dimensions of
the anomaly extend from the known mineralisation in
CMD010W1 to a point 50 metres above CMD034. The
anomaly is considered an excellent target to extend the
current limit of the resource and will be tested in the future.
The grades intersected in CMD026, and CMD026W1 coupled
with the newly defined DHEM anomalies highlight the very
strong potential for the Carnilya Hill mineralisation to continue
down-plunge to the west.

Zone 29 East (Mincor 70%)
Zone 29 East is part of the Carnilya Hill Joint Venture and lies
adjacent to the Zone 29 ore body that was previously mined
by View Resources Ltd. The current resource at Zone 29 is
61,100 tonnes @ 3% nickel and is based on 28 reverse
circulation and one diamond drill-hole intersections.
A decision was made to conduct a diamond drilling program
to confirm the current Zone 29 resource as well as attempt to
extend the current mineralised trend. Four diamond drillholes
and a pre-collar (CMD029-CMD033) were drilled at
Zone 29 East for a total of 786.7 metres.
CMD030 and CMD031 were drilled within the Zone 29 East
resource and both returned modest intersections. CMD029
and CMD032 were drilled outside the resource, with only
CMD029 returning some encouragement. The drilling has
indicated the plunge the mineralisation may be steeper to the
east and remains open. This steepened trend will be tested
with the diamond tail of the CMD033 pre-collar.
The Zone 29 East resource will be updated with the latest
drill-hole intersections.
TABLE 4: Assay Results for Zone 29 East Drilling
HOLE ID INTERSECTION
From To Interval Ni%
CMD029 112 112.63 0.63 1.34
CMD030 141.8 143.28 1.48 2.08
CMD031 169.82 170.21 0.39 1.09
CMD032 222.8 222.85 0.05 NSA

Cash and Debt
As at 30 June 2007, Mincor had cash and receivables of
$237.98 million and creditors and accruals of $109.85
million, giving a net working capital position of $128.13
million.
During the quarter the Company made an initial payment of
$11.75 million to the shareholders of Goldfields Mine
Management Pty Ltd (GMM) as part of the $68.5 million
acquisition of that company. On 2 July Mincor made a
further payment of $50.75 million to the shareholders of
GMM. After taking account of that payment, Mincor’s net
working capital position on 2 July was $77.38 million. A
further $6 million (the balance of the $68.5 million purchase
price) remains payable subject to the meeting of certain
conditions pertaining to tenement licences.
During the quarter the Company terminated its $10 million
Revolving Facility with CBA.

wrxsti

Just as I took great profits on MCR, the present weakness was to much for me I started accumalating the shares last week and this week, the anouncement did not dissapoint either I think there's great potential here. They have fallen further today though, so may need some strong short term nerve's.porkpie

Cant beleive no talk a bout this one lately.

It hit a dramatic low on the day the news was released the Director of exploration died. Since then, it has shot up (30% or so?). Huge gains could have been made on this one lately.

Buffett
The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers

reece55 said:

Buffett
The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers

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Hi do you know why in 2010 theres such a big drop forecast EPS than in 2009?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 51.3 68.3 77.1 31.9
DPS 12.0 17.8 18.5 15.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 68.3 5.3 33.1%
Year Ending 30-06-09 77.1 4.7 12.9%

Thanks

MS

Acquiring futher assets..



Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has further expanded its strategic growth footprint in the Kambalda Nickel District of Western Australia after reaching agreement with BHP Billiton Limited, its off-take partner, to acquire a major package of highly prospective nickel sulphide exploration tenements in the District. The agreement covers the “Bluebush Line”, which contains numerous high-grade nickel occurrences extending over a strike length of more than 40km.

These include drill intersections of up to 7.15 metres @ 6.14% nickel in the advanced stage Stockwell Prospect.

The Bluebush Line is believed to be the only remaining surface exposure of the basal contact in the Kambalda Nickel District not yet controlled by long-term holders. The basal contact is the stratigraphic position that hosts all known Kambalda nickel deposits.

The Bluebush Line contains numerous known nickel occurrences, including those at Cameron, Lawry, Grimsby and Stockwell.

WMC Resources Ltd completed 34,000 metres of drilling at Stockwell/Grimsby in the late 1990s, outlining a substantial zone of nickel sulphide mineralisation.

No exploration has been conducted anywhere on the Bluebush Line since 2001, leaving the area wide open to the recent advances in geological thinking, geophysical techniques and deep drilling capabilities that have proved so successful for Mincor since it first entered the District nearly 7
years ago.

“We are thrilled at the opportunity to acquire this outstanding package of ground,” said Mincor’s Managing Director, David Moore. “These may be the last of the tenements in the Kambalda Nickel District with genuine near-surface prospectivity.

“We intend to commence an aggressive exploration program as soon as possible, with our focus initially on the Stockwell/Grimsby area, where we believe there is clear potential for the early delineation of a substantial nickel resource,” he continued.

“However, we will also aggressively pursue the entire 40 kilometre strike length of the basal contact along the Bluebush Line – surely one of the best exploration positions in the entire Kambalda District. Outside of three prospect areas, there is not a single drill-hole extending to more than 200 metres in depth.

“This acquisition is further evidence of Mincor’s ability to continue to grow its successful Kambalda nickel business. Opportunities of this quality are rare at any time, and especially so in the current bull market for resource assets,” Mr Moore said.

Under the agreement, Mincor will sub-lease the Bluebush tenements (with rights to explore for and mine nickel) from BHP Billiton until the formal termination of the Nickel Refinery Act, after which it will acquire the tenements outright.

The sub-lease and acquisition terms are confidential but are not considered material to Mincor. The deal includes an off-take agreement for the nickel produced from the tenements. The gold rights to the tenements are held by Gold Fields Limited.

The sub-lease is subject to Ministerial approval and the normal administrative procedures of the relevant Acts. The sale agreement is subject to the termination of the Nickel Refinery (Western Mining Corporation Limited) Agreement Act 1968, Ministerial approval, and normal third party consents under a variety of subsidiary agreements.

This a reasonable resource stock that get a big of a hammer lately so today is my day to jump in.

It also helps knowing the director just paid 20% premium from my purchase price.

MINCOR DELIVERS $31.3M INTERIM NET PROFIT,
MAINTAINS STRONG INTERIM DIVIDEND


• Record half-yearly production of 8,196 tonnes nickel in concentrate.
• Net Profit after Tax of $31.3 million for the half year.
• Strong growth in underlying earnings over previous corresponding period.
• Steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share fully franked.
• Cash balance of $110.8M at 31 December 2007 and no debt.
• New mines under development and aggressive exploration underway


Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has delivered another strong half yearly
earnings result, today announcing a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to 31 December
2007 (after writing off $6.3 million in exploration expenditures) and a strong increase in underlying
earnings over the previous corresponding period.
The profit result for the current period was impacted by the extreme volatility in the nickel price between
July and September 2007. The final nickel prices for April to June of 2007 were established during July
to September, and the recognition in the current period of these provisional pricing adjustments reduced
the headline profit number from an excellent $39.7 million (Dec 2006: $37.2 million). The net profit
translated into earnings per share of 15.6 cents (Dec 2006: 19.0 cents).
The robust performance – which was underpinned by record nickel-in-concentrate production of 8,196
tonnes (Dec 2006: 6,888 tonnes) and continued strong operating margins – enabled Mincor to declare
a steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share (fully franked). This will bring the total dividends paid out
by Mincor to its shareholders since 2003 to $56.9 million. The record date for the dividend is 29
February 2008, and the payment date is 31 March 2008.
Operational earnings (revenues minus cash costs excluding provisional pricing adjustments) for the
period under review were $91.9 million (Dec 2006: $76.3 million) and Earnings before Interest, Tax,
Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) were $71.1 million (Dec 2006: $67.84 million). The
recognition of the provisional pricing adjustments referred to above reduced the latter figure from a very
strong $83.1 million.
Cashflows from operations remained exceptionally strong at $70.60 million. After major investments in
acquisitions ($50.3 million), new production capacity ($25.5 million) and exploration ($5.4 million), as
well as paying $37 million in income tax, Mincor’s cash balance at 31 December 2007 was $110.8
million (Dec 2006: $87.4 million).
Mincor’s nickel production for the half year generated increased gross revenues of $164.9 million (Dec
2006: $147.0 million). Average cash costs were A$6.26 per pound of payable nickel, representing a
5% improvement over the A$6.59 per pound incurred during financial year 2006/7.
The average received nickel price was A$14.05/lb (Dec 2006: A$14.26), enabling Mincor to generate an
excellent cash margin of A$7.79 per pound payable nickel (Dec 2006: A$8.11 per pound).
“Mincor continues its outstanding record of delivery,” commented Managing Director, David Moore.
“This will continue through 2008 as we bring two new mines into production and complete our
feasibility work on the exciting Durkin Deeps project, while pursuing our aggressive exploration
programmes in the Kambalda Nickel District and elsewhere.”
MEDIA RELEASE
Tuesday, 19 February 2008

Good company, good management, good profits, good technicals! Looks like this company just experienced a breakout, should be a good run for those on board! All the best!

Read this bizarre article tonight. Not sure what screen this person was looking at :

Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has announced a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to December 2007, 16 per cent down on its $37.1 million profit for last year's corresponding period.

The company's shares closed down 27 cents, or 8.7 per cent, to $3.36 each today.

Might look at getting in, near support, stable earnings... look to see if can get to that resistance near the top somewhere...