MCR - Mincor Resources

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, it seems to have found some good support around the 2.60s area.

Appears for now, the commodity shake-out is over, perhaps a launch up from a higher base now, but volatility is still a worry.

I am within an inch of taking a bite of this one, added KZL back to my portfolio yesterday at its low for the day, following the postive divergence of the XMJ. Will probably buy this one at close.

 

[nioka]

MCR is a stock that is slipping under the radar. The latest company report makes interesting reading. They quote.

On track for 20 years at 20K tonnes nickel production.

Market cap under $600M and with $110m cash at bank.

On track for record production FY 08 with further production growth FY09.

They quote;
RBC Capital target price $3.70
Patersons target price $3.85
Argonaut target price $3.60

Looking at their figures I can not see why Zinifex chose AGM ahead of MCR. No matter which way I look at it I find MCR the best investment. Zinifex did me a favor by making me sell AGM and investing in MCR and I have my first dividend cheque in the bank as proof. The only worry I have is that MCR must be an attractive takeover target at the moment.

 

[oldblue]

Ssshh.....
I'm a holder in MCR and have been quietly adding whenever the radar fogs over.
I wonder though if the arrangement that MCR has with BHP as its offtake partner may be a reason why the price isn't higher? Perhaps it makes MCR less attrative as a takeover prospect, knowing that production is committed to BHP at market prices.

 

[MRC & Co]

I personally, bought this one the other day at 2.77 I beleive, with stops around 2.60 where strong support is seen.

Doing ok off it for now.

But I agree, should be doing better than currently is, but that's no problem for now.

 

[eddyeagle]

Just read the latest presentation and it sounds very good indeed. Exciting times ahead. I think MCR has very competent management.

I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies...

When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.

 

[MRC & Co]

I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies...

When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.

Has there been a shift?

Last 12 trading days, these are the % moves of major OZ indices:

XAO: 3.0
XSO: 3.3 (small caps)
XMJ: 12.4 (materials)
XFJ: -4.7 (financials)

Small caps are faring well alongside larger XAO listed companies. Considering MCR is also a materials company, it should be outperforming perhaps........?

Will the market smooth out later in the year? Cannot tell.

Analyst price target of $4? I would take that with a grain of salt.

Agree on one thing though, MCR is a good company and I still hold. Nice +9% in a week

Good luck!

 

[Squawkbox]

Might it be IMC Resources, the backer of troubled View Resources (VRE), that has its eye on Mincor!?

 

[jonojpsg]

ANyone seen the quarterly yet? Numbers look great - production on track for annual target (4800 tonnes of Ni in quarter). Great cash flow, with current NET cash position of $97m

With so much potential going forward (their target is 20000 tonnes of Ni per year for the next 20 years) and possibly even greater targets than that given their tenements positions!!

Must be looking at some solid SP improvements in the near future

 

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, I got out of this one earlier. Disappointing, made a decent profit, but should have let it run further, too tight with my stops in such a volatile environment.

Good luck to all those aboard!

 

[doogie_goes_off]

I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.

 

[eddyeagle]

Another very solid report!
I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...

 

[MRC & Co]

I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.

Why $3.60?

Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?

RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.

All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout. If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run. Fundamentals look good also. Keep your trigger finger loaded! This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.

 

[oldblue]

Another very solid report!
I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...

I've always thought that MCR's offtake contract with BHP might lessen its attraction as a T/O target. I suppose it depends on a " predator's " attitude to nickel. They might be quite comfortable just to mine the stuff, pass it on to BHP and accept the contract price if they saw the future price as being sufficiently attractive.
Any thoughts on this?

 

[MRC & Co]

Why $3.60?

Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?

RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.

All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout. If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run. Fundamentals look good also. Keep your trigger finger loaded! This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.

Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance. Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.

 

[MRC & Co]

Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance. Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.

Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.

But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately. An ominous sign for MCR. Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.

I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week. Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.

I do not hold.

 

[nioka]

Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.

But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately. An ominous sign for MCR. Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.

I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week. Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.

I do not hold.

I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.

 

[MRC & Co]

Over the last year or so the MCR SP has fluctuated and ended up not doing much whatsoever, so not much gain there for investors.

Trading MCR has been one of my best stocks for the year, up there with EQN.

I agree, it is an investors stock, but it is most definately a traders one also.

 

[treefrog]

I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.

Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
GI: "great now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
GI: "really great, now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."

 

[nioka]

Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
GI: "great now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
GI: "really great, now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."

If I could trade with hindsight I would never be an investor but only a trader. I class myself as an investor who sometimes trades. I usually trade when the fundamentals change and if you check the change in the fundamentals for MCR in the past I may have traded them over that period. I never suggest an investor should never sell. If a stock gets priced higher than the fundamentals suggest then sell and buy again after the correction. eg. In my opinion it would be a good time to sell Westfarmers and look to buy again as they fall while trying to absorb Coles, unless of course coal may offset Coles.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Well what do you know, it's cracked 3.60 and it's on a bit of a run, I'm in for good. Good luck to all holders.