MCR - Mincor Resources

[wintermute]

short term I assume porkpie!!! yeah it might be about to shoot up, but how long before it crashes back down?? The RSI is grossly overbought, that is my main concern, as is the shape of the uptrend! I'm expecting a good 1/2 yearly report which is why I was originally going to buy in, but it's looking very scary to me now!

Tony.

 

[chops_a_must]

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be both my best and worst trade for 2007? Lol!

 

[porkpie324]

When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie

 

[chops_a_must]

When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie

I think it explains the recent run, but not Friday's action. Most of the reports I've seen about MCR put them at a value between 2.35 and 2.60, so I'm thinking we'll see them at about 2.50 before long.

 

[chops_a_must]

MCR getting absolutely pounded at the moment. Down nearly 5%.

 

[ktrianta]

Down only 7 cents today. Bit of profit taking. Not surprising given the run it has had. Still plenty of upside one would think.

 

[Seneca60BC]

nice half year result - better than I expected - $37 million profit.

What you think ? - Good result ?

 

[porkpie324]

Yes a good result, although the substantial increase in profit is mainly due to the increase in the price of nickel, not a too bigger increase in produced concentrate. MCR is working on this though with increased exploration, I'm sure MCRs output will be more un the future and I remain a long term fan of Mincor, porkpie

 

[Lert]

MCR were 5% down at one stage this morning but buyers have moved back in.. I thought the results were pretty good and the dividend is nice too..

 

[wintermute]

So as not to polute the XAO thread Chops have a look at the date I said MCR looked grossly overbought. 3rd Feb. have a look at the daily chart below.


Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory.

So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in at perhaps up to an 20% discount....

Tony.

 

[chops_a_must]

Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory.

So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in at perhaps up to an 20% discount....

Tony.

Yes, you did.

I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some at a bargain price

You said this at $2.50, and again at $3. If they had listened to you, they would have lost by now. After your prediction of $2, the lowest they have gone is ~ $2.50. I doubt they would have got in at all, thinking it was going lower. And by the way, far from being overbought currently, it looks like breaking from above $3.20. When there is panic buying (as there is with nickel) using a retroactively correct indicator like a monthly RSI is about a month too late and useless.

 

[wintermute]

Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50... then it went up and I said maybe I should have bought, but decided it was looking way over bought at around $3.10 and it pulled back to below the initial point where I said a pull-back was probable, ie back to around the $2.50 point.

The only thing I said which was dubious was that it might go back to $2.00 which in hindsight was way off. That was not based on using RSI, I don't even remember why I decided on that figure, I was probably remembering my experience with CSM, $2.25 would have been more reasonable but still way off in hindsight.

So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point...

It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why. If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event?? If it makes you feel any better, I didn't get my order filled as I had it at $2.31... everyone is responsible for their own decisions in life, I made a mistake on my buy target, I did not make a mistake on whether the pullback was imminent.

You will note that later on I said I didn't know how far it would pull back, but MAYBE the gap at $2.31 would be filled, I then said one can dream, indicating I didn't think it was likely it would drop that far!

Believe what you want chops, but for someone who posted along the same lines I was at the time you seem to have done somewhat of a 180. If my posts backed up what you were thinking at the time and you made a wrong decision because I posted something along the same lines, and you thought it verified your line of thinking I am sorry, but no matter where you go you will find people who agree with and those that oppose your thinking, just because someone else is thinking the same way doesn't make them right, just as someone else thinking differently doesn't make them wrong.

I note that you sold all of your MRE around the time I made the first post on MCR, something I also did not that long after (12th Feb to be precise). Do I regret it?? NO, because I made 155% profit on it, and at the time it was what I thought I should do. Do you regret selling your MRE?? did your comment affect whether I sold mine or not?? possibly, but did I once think that it was anyone other than me that made the decision? NO.

Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now

Cheers

Tony.

 

[chops_a_must]

Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50...

So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point...

It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why. If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event??

Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now

Cheers

Tony.

Uh uh. At the time you posted MCR dipped to just below 2.50 intraday. They would have lost because they most likely would have had to buy in higher than what they sold. Anyone can pick a dip. I can say a stock looks overbought, and retrospectively say, "oh there it was". I can say that about almost every stock out there. And I doubt you truly picked it anyway as your order never got filled. That's a pretty clear indication to me.

I'm not annoyed, because every trade I have made on MCR and MRE has met my targets (at a substantial profit). I just think it is irresponsible to predict dips on a strongly uptrending stock. Especially with the RSI as it becomes useless when fundamentals change either positively or negatively. And that is the same reason for the negative response in the XAO thread.

People downramping strong stocks for their own benefit is effectively the same as ramping in my eyes.

 

[wintermute]

yes I'm a shameless downramper! I predicted a pullback when it was around $3.10 it dropped it took five days to work it's way down to its lowest point at around $2.55, it finished that day at around $2.70, the next day it opened lower probably around the $2.60 mark, over the next few days it made its way back to close again a bit over $3.00... I'm sure this was all because of my evil downramping!!!

I think you should re-read the posts without rose tinted glasses on, and you will see that there is no ill-intent, and I at no time said that MCR was a bad buy. I said I did want to buy, that I was expecting a good 1/4 report, but that I thought there would be better buying opportunities, and I would not BUY at the $3.00 mark... I at no point said anyone should sell!!! I said a pullback, a pullback is an opportunity to buy at a better price, not a signal to sell, nmentioning that I think a pullback is imminent is hardly irresponsible....

As I said I stuffed up on the $2.00 call, and I should not have mentioned a price without good evidence to support why I mentioned that price, in retrospect it was probably the pullbacks on MRE that I was thinking of, as it was observations on the behavoiur of MRE (being another nickeler) that prompted me to view MCR in the same way. Subsequently when it took off in price as I said before, I implied it was unlikely that my bid at $2.31 would get filled...

Think of me what you like, I'm sure others can make up their own minds.

and just for the record, the monthly RSI is still over 80, watch the weekly, and when it once again reaches 80, then have a look and see if there is another pullback. What the price will be at that time and what it will fall to, I don't know, and I'm certainly not saying wait till that happens to buy, just saying watch it, and see if it was pure co-incidence as you seem to imply if you check the charts, the monthly had been over for a while, the weekly and daily both touched 80 at around that day. Not everything is smoke and mirrors, and your assessment of me couldn't be further from the truth.

Tony.

 

[Sean K]

Guys, I don't think there's been any deliberate downramping here, or anyone has been particularly hostile on the scale of things. Using indicators to predict advances and retractments is OK, but setting price targets is more complex obviously. Not sure how you can do with the RSI alone Tony, which you have admitted to some degree. I suppose the only other tools you could use to support this would be EW, Fib, Gann and support lines. In regard to getting expectations wrong, golly, who ever gets everything right? If we did, I would be on my boat right now somewhere in the Caribbean. You two would be most welcome!

 

[wintermute]

Thanks Kennas Yes you are completely right the RSI cannot be used to predict the magnitude of a pull back, only that a pullback is lilkely, and any Tea leaf reading (ie analysing charts) is subjective and never 100% accurate either (and at times can be monumentally wrong).

Another method such a support/resistance lines or channels, fib points etc (I haven't looked at Gann or Elliot Wave) needs to be used to work out a likely buy point, I chose to use the unfilled gap which failed since then I have found out about trend channels, and will likely use them in future.

Once again I apologise if anyone got put off by the $2.00 figure I posted early on... as I said I'm not sure where it came from, if MCR had have been a speccie (something I had been analysing a lot) and not a producer, it may have been reasonable, but it wasn't reasonable, and I'm not sure what planet I was on when I posted it!

Tony.

 

[Sean K]

Tony, you seem to use RSI quite a bit. What do you combine it with to give more validity to your assessment? I don't use it really, but perhaps I should be considering it??

My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up. A break down though ascending support line and then around $2.75 and it's looking untidy.

 

[wintermute]

Hi Kennas, I tried to do a graph to illustrate, but having trouble with Incredible charts, doesn't seem to want to let me plot vertical lines...

I generally just look for patterns, a run, and possibly some candles like a doji or shooting star, volume dropping off is also another sign.. I've learnt the hard way that you need to look back and make sure that there have been previous events too, as RSI in isolation at a particular point in time is useless if there are no previous events to compare it to. Every stock is different, some are predictable some are not, if you can work out a pattern for a stock then it gives you an edge for that stock. Also it is very rare for somenthing to be 100% predictable down to a day or two.. You won't be able to necessarily pick the top, and picking the bottom is something that has eluded me so far (and this is not something I think RSI can help with), generally I pick a figure I think is a possible low, and then put in a bid slightly higher than that.

Also I'm coming to appreciate that you can fine tune it by looking at monthly weekly and daily to try and narrow it down, I found that whilst monthly can be looking overbought on RSI, unless weekly is too, and probably daily then chances are it won't pull back till all are looking overbought, unless there is some external event that triggers it. A look at the last 10 years says that monthly on MCR the RSI is not particularly reliable, interestingly I have a big discrepancy between IC and big charts on where the RSI currently is for MCR with IC showing it down at about 71 and big charts showing it at about 90!!! something to be wary about... I need to investigate this a bit further.

I've previously used RSI mainly for picking pull-backs in up trending stocks to work out an entry point. Though it could also be used to work out when to sell if you are so inclined to take some profits. I did this successfully with CMO offloading part of my parcel at 3.2c to be effectively free carried on the remainder.

Looks like you might be right about MCR getting set for another run. My T/a skills are pretty crude, though I am learning I'll do a bit more analysis of my own. I still wonder about that gap down at 2.30, but since it didn't hit it on the 28th feb, I'm thinking it would have to be something pretty major to see MCR drop back to there now! Just noticed one thing though... two spinning tops sitting on the upper bollinger band, this could signal a reversal back to the lower band, the break through 3.25 might be a while yet (of course a spinning top just represents indecision, so it could also mean a break up).... I actually think that with the volatility lately due to uncertainty in the market, that charting is quite a bit less reliable than usual... I will sit back and observe for now

Tony.

 

[chops_a_must]

My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up.

Definitely.

MCR is set for a re-rating as they have announced many new projects without movement in the SP. You can have a squiz at the VRE thread to get an indication on potential values.

Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.

 

[wintermute]

Thanks Chops Still learning, so the input is appreciated!!

Tony.