Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MCE - Matrix Composites & Engineering

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odds-on said:
I want to buy MCE as it is a perfect candidate for some speculation:). It is on my "fallen angels" stock screener. Speculation requires discipline and I will not purchase until the Price to Sales is less than 1 and I see some positive company announcements plus media reviews.
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Looks like Orbis Investment Management agrees with you. they increased there holding to 10%
 
robusta said:
Could not resist this price, got back in today for $2.53.
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Well done for catching it on the lows of the day. But the downtrend in the technicals is so strong I wonder whether it will get all the way to $1.85 before it comes up for air?

Any t/a analysts out there to make a prediction on this?
 
StumpyPhantom said:
the downtrend in the technicals is so strong I wonder whether it will get all the way to $1.85 before it comes up for air?
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I dont really understand the Technical anyalisis side of things. can you explain it a bit further as to why you think it will get to 1.85?
 
This is measured move analysis from the descending triangle pattern. Its not a prediction, only if the price continues to fall, where it may find support again...may be the debut price as well.

If you could have shorted at the triangle break then this would be your target.

CanOz
 

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Trading halt pending announcement on operations/finances.

Anyone with any educated guesses as to what may be entailed?

Yesterdays massive slump directs me to think a negative announcement is on the way...!
 
VSntchr said:
Trading halt pending announcement on operations/finances.

Anyone with any educated guesses as to what may be entailed?

Yesterdays massive slump directs me to think a negative announcement is on the way...!
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IDL went into a halt on the same terms and today announced a takeover offer by GE (along with a small profit downgrade).

So there's always hope.
 
there is always hope I suppose...

the massive slump yesterday implies that there are a group of people who know something.

I would assume that if it was a take over they would only be selling if the take over price is below say the prices of the last couple of days. but then again maybe they don't know as much as they think....

My guess is that its a announcment of a loss of 2.5 - 5 Mil for the full FY and a capital raise.....

all of the above is complete speculation.
 
Yep it doesnt look good. It seems like plenty of sellers may have known something and are getting out.
I was predicting a decline in share price down to the 2 dollar mark just a week or so back but I didnt think it would get there this quickly. :confused:
 
clinta44 said:
there is always hope I suppose...

the massive slump yesterday implies that there are a group of people who know something.

I would assume that if it was a take over they would only be selling if the take over price is below say the prices of the last couple of days. but then again maybe they don't know as much as they think....

My guess is that its a announcment of a loss of 2.5 - 5 Mil for the full FY and a capital raise.....

all of the above is complete speculation.
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Strange they would go into a trading halt just to announce a down grade.
 
robusta said:
Comes out of trading halt at market open, still no Annuncement.:confused:
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It's just been suspended. It's either really bad or they have a takeover offer. The sp action going into the announcement would probably mean the former.
 
It's not a takeover offer. Otherwise the announcement would state something along the lines of "a change of control" or "change in control transaction", or "potential material transaction"

IDL's takeover and announcement just happened to coincide with them making a profit downgrade.

Given MCE has had to extend the trading halt and go into suspension for another week, means its taking longer than expected to work out (whatever "it" is).
90% chance this is the worst news, 10% chance its anything good.
 
mikeydowndown said:
It's not a takeover offer. Otherwise the announcement would state something along the lines of "a change of control" or "change in control transaction", or "potential material transaction"

IDL's takeover and announcement just happened to coincide with them making a profit downgrade.

Given MCE has had to extend the trading halt and go into suspension for another week, means its taking longer than expected to work out (whatever "it" is).
90% chance this is the worst news, 10% chance its anything good.
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I agree. Once it's in trading halt there is no need to not at least say "we have received an offer which we are reviewing". Instead we get silence.

A capital raising doesn't seem right, because the balance sheet at HY looked pretty healthy. Maybe it's some left field event like accounting irregularity.
 
McLovin said:
I agree. Once it's in trading halt there is no need to not at least say "we have received an offer which we are reviewing". Instead we get silence.

A capital raising doesn't seem right, because the balance sheet at HY looked pretty healthy. Maybe it's some left field event like accounting irregularity.
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I dont think it is a takeover or a capital raising which makes it all very intriguing but unfortunately the probability of bad news is almost 100 percent. I have been wrong about these things before but it does smell very bad.
 
If you are interested this is what RM says over on his blog.

"If that’s the case then I am taking a wild guess that Matrix (MCE) are about to announce a capital raising. Hypothetically, if the banks want their money bank, how long will the cash thats left last the company and how much pressure will there be on them to get some customers?

If they don’t win new contracts, it took a couple of decades for the family to build the business and just two years to…???

Alternatively, the company may announce a new contract win but typically that type of announcement would not take this long to make and the shares wouldn’t need to be suspended for such an extended period of time.

I am aware that another fund manager has been building a stake. Someone here reported they have moved to 10% of the register. I am guessing they’ll be hoping for the latter announcement (new contract win) but by not owning the stock we are on the side of a capital raising. It would have to be at a substantial discount to the market price in this kind of market too.

So once the announcement is made and if it is a capital raising ask yourself, how much cash is in the bank and how long will it last without announcing a customer win. Keep in mind, from the time a buoyancy contract is secured to to the company being paid can take 9 months."
 

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